Its been a long time…

This post is Overdue, please pay fine

Sorry everyone, Its been what seems like (and is) months since I posted anything on the NLEC home.  With the season approaching though, we are hoping to bring you high quality articles and links to our NLEC Brothers constantly.  In addition, the articles should pick up as Spring Training approaches and gets underway and there are more storylines.

In the immediate future, look forward to some off-season recaps of each team and possibly commentating from those team blogs.

The big news though, is in a small amount of time, we will have a major change with all the NLEC blogs which will bring us increased readership, new design and faster servers (we all know we need that!).

So sit tight NL East fans, we’ll be back soon!

The Point Is…

Crickets. Nothing is really going on. After last week’s flurry of activity, it is all quiet on the Free Agent/Trade front. I think it is safe to assume that the Bay/Holliday sweepstakes will not be over until sometime in January. There may be minor free agent signings over the next couple of days, but nothing major.

Surprisingly, this article is not about me.

Though I admit, I find it more exciting to find out where the under the radar free agents end up as opposed to the high priced stars. We all know Jason Bay is going to a handful of places. Same with Matt Holliday. Its guys like Orlando Hudson and Ben Sheets who will be interesting and it is those types of signings that make the difference.

Orlando Hudson signed a 1 year deal with the Dodgers and suffice to say, he was a major part of the Dodgers offense for most of the season. Certainly the Dodgers got a great return on their one year investment.

For example, Jayson Werth signed a one year $850,000 deal with the Phillies prior to the 2007 season. I think that has worked out quite nicely for the Phillies. Adam Dunn signed with the Nationals last season for 2 yrs/$20 million, which while high, isnt too bad considering the Nationals received 38 HR’s, 105 RBI, and a .267 average for their money. If I remember correctly, no one wanted to pay him because of the cost/value differential. Think the Braves or Mets wouldnt mind having that kind of production in the lineup?

The point is, unless you are the Yankees, and you fill almost every position on your roster with a big name free agent signing, teams win and lose from 1-40 on the roster. This means that you have to maximize your budget and find the best deals. Typically those deals are for guys, like Ben Sheets, who may end up being the Comeback Player of the Year next season. We could be talking in July saying things like, can you believe the Rangers signed Sheets for only $3 million for one season, when Sheets has a 10-2 record with a 3.13 ERA. Or how could a team NOT sign Matt Capps after he gets his 20th save.

I know it is a fairly obvious point but I think it often gets overlooked, especially during free agency.  Many fans overlook the value guys.  Sure Mark DeRosa or Adam Kennedy may not be stars, but what they add to their new teams might be more valuable than adding merely one big star.  Every season it seems like players who no one wanted in December end up playing a big role during the season.  Jeff Weaver for the Dodgers is another example.  Pedro Martinez for the Phillies. 

Does anyone want to sign me? I will bring my attractive wife!

Here is a list of guys, in no particular order, who I think will be a steal when they are finally signed:  (A steal reflecting a positive production/cost ratio as compared to other players)

-Doug Davis (P)

-Brett Myers (P)

-Hank Blalock (1B/3B/DH)

-Octavio Dotel (P)

-Kelly Johnson (2B)

-Xavier Nady (OF)

-Scott Podsednik (OF)

Now, I think there are more guys available who are valuable and not included on this list, but I think this is representative of the players who can definetly help a team win.  These are guys who I am interested in seeing where they end up and following them next year.

Happy Holidays!

The Point Is…

TPI took last weekend off and you have my sincerest apologies. On a rather humorous note, the Red Sox have tried to trade the Lance Armstrong of the Baseball World (Mike Lowell) to the Texas Rangers and would look to replace him with….drumroll….Adrian Beltre. I am not a general manager, though I do manage several fantasy baseball teams, but do you think it would be wise to bring in a guy who underperforms and is overpaid, into a fishbowl like Boston???? Do you really think Boston’s fans will have the patience for .250, 20 HR, and decent range/arm???? Not a wise move IMHO (In My Humble Opinion). Yes, I speak in acronyms sometimes.

The NL East has been busy this off season. First let me address the Granderson trade. Love this move. Absolutely love it. But not for the Yankees. I love it for the Diamondbacks. Dont get me wrong, Granderson will make a fine addition to the already potent/imposing Yankee lineup. But you have to love what the Diamondbacks did. They imported Edwin Jackson, and Ian Kennedy. They have now added two starters to their rotation. Scherzer was good, and Schlereth might end up being a good reliever, but any time you can get a #2 guy to be your #3, it is a good move. Kennedy is definetly a #4 guy and he will thrive in that roll. Great move all around for everyone involved although I think the Tigers got the worst of the deal, which is not a knock on them. It was a fair and balanced trade all around.

Pudge Rodriguez. 2 years from the Nationals. I like what they are doing here. Sure, it is not 2001, but you have to like the fact that the Nationals are trying.   Getting Bruney from the Yankees is a good move.  Strengthens the bullpen.  If they could get another starting pitcher, they might be decent to watch.

Welcome Back, Enrico Palazzo!

Placido “Enrico Palazzo” Polanco has rejoined the Phightin Phils. I like Polanco as a player. I have a soft spot for guys who take pitches, work the count, and make contact. Very valuable. Like a Shane Battier of Major League Baseball. Does the fundamental things right, but isnt a superstar. My question is, where does he hit in that lineup? Are the Phils going to move him down in the order, which kind of negates his value.  Are they looking to move Victorino down?  That is the only downside of this move.  Polanco would not be a good #6 or #7 hitter.  Mark DeRosa/Adam Kennedy I think would have been a better fit. 

Apparently, not thankful enough to be playing professional baseball!

The Mets and Phillies each got a new backup catcher.  The Phillies picked up Brian Schneider while the Mets got Chris Coste.  Calling this move minor would still overplay its signifigance, but what makes it interesting is Chris Coste’s statements about his remaining “a lifelong Phillie”.   Further, Mr. Coste found it “difficult” to sign with the Mets.   Frankly, I am glad players have a little more invested in their employers than simply their loyalty to the all mighty dollar.  However, Mr. Coste, the Phillies just cut you.  They deemed you worthless, so worthless in fact, that they signed Brian Schneider to replace you.  Mr. Schneider  hit .218 last year.  .218!!!!  I think it would be wise for Mr. Coste to close his mouth, cash his paycheck, and thank the heavens above that someone wants to pay him to play baseball.

Moving on, the Braves signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and traded away Rafael Soriano, who had accepted arbitration.  Really, the Braves moved laterally here, unless you count what was received from the Tampa Bay Rays, right handed reliever Jesse Chavez, as an improvement.  It seems a right of passage for baseball teams to turnover their bullpens.  Usually, guys who one team didnt like move to a team that likes them slightly more.  Is Billy Wagner better than Rafael Soriano?  Not really.  Maybe cheaper, but otherwise, pretty much the same pitcher with similar injury concerns.  Saito is interesting but I think he has fallen from his spot as a stable bullpen presence. 

The Marlins yardsale continues as they have traded away Matt Lindstrom and Jeremy Hermida this offseason.  From Boston, the Marlins received, what else, young talent, in two left handed pitching prospects.  I dont even know what the Marlins got from Houston for Lindstrom.  Let’s just say, for arguments sake, it was a bag of magic beans. 

I cannot comment on rumors because they are just that, rumors.  I am sure there were other moves I missed, such as the Mets setting the world on fire by signing Henry Blanco who should not be confused with Gregor Blanco, because they are not related. 

Wait a second, you are not Cliff Lee....

Oh yeah, another thing, the Phillies just traded for Roy Halladay and three prospects.  If you read NLEastChatter, you knew I said that the Phillies needed pitching.  Well, they got it.  Just not in the way I imagined.  It is a shrewd business move, trading one star for another, especially since it looked unlikely that the Phillies could retain Cliff Lee past 2010.  However, do the Phillies actually get better?  They trade away 2 prospects in Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor and get three players back.  So essentially, for Roy Halladay, several months of Cliff Lee, and three prospects the Phillies traded 5 prospects, which really isnt a bad deal.  However, at the end of the day, entering next season, the Phillies still have one true ace, a solid number two/maybe ace/maybe bust and J.A. Happ.  This is exactly what they had when the season ended.  While Halladay is a great, great pitcher, the rest of the National League East cannot be any more afraid of the Phillies than when they had Cliff Lee. 

The rest of the offseason will be filled with what the hell the Mets will do.  The Mets, surrounded by Boston, the Yankees, and the Phillies, have watched all three teams pull off great moves and great signings.  They will be pressed into action.  The Nationals are essentially waiting for the dust to settle to see who will accept signing with the Nationals as opposed to playing in Japan, the Braves are quietly trying to put together a team in a city that cares slightly more about the Braves than the Hawks, but well below the Falcons and college football.  Lastly the Marlins appear to be determining who will show up for Spring Training to decide who they should sign.  With that said, feel free to show up to Marlins spring training.  If you manage to look official you might just join the 40 man roster.

The Point Is….

I have decided on the title of my running article which I hope will continue to run on this website. As there were no comments on my previous article, I will assume that a) No One Cares or b) I am the only person reading it.

Where have you gone Mr. Jones?

I dont blame anyone. At this point in the baseball season, nothing is happening. Minor free agents are signing meaningless contracts, i.e., Andruw Jones & Alex Gonzalez, and teams are posturing. Many “sources” provide fodder for Sports Illustrated, ESPN, and the like. Will the Blue Jays trade Roy Halladay? Who knows, but it is better to speculate about it then write nothing at all. Hell, if all ESPN and SI can put out is conjecture what the hell am I going to say.

The point is, there isnt much to say. Until the first domino falls, no one knows how this offseason will shape up.

How about Andrew/Andruw/Andru Jones? Remember when he hit 2 HR’s in a World Series game against the Yankees? What happened to him? Did he just lose confidence? Did he not try hard enough? Did he eat his way out of baseball? Or is he a casualty of the steroid era? I mean at this point, how could you at least not speculate that a guy who was productive and durable came crashing to the earth at around the same time steroids became a big deal. I am not saying that he took steroids. The point is that he could have taken steroids or some other performance enhancing substance. Or his career could have simply followed a bell curve, who knows. I certainly dont. However, that is what a blog is for, to voice an opinion and let the people decide one way or another.

For example, from 1997 until 2006, Jones averaged 33.7 HR’s a season. In 2005 and 2006, he managed to hit 51 and 41 HR’s respectively. In 2007, he dropped to 27 HR’s. Now, he is signing a minor league deal worth $500,000. Jones never hit for average, but I do not recall a debilitating injury (Jones did not go on the disabled list in his career until 2008) or anything else that would have slowed his career.

Look, more likely than not, Jones is just a victim of a downward career spiral. He put on weight and might not have had the discipline to maintain his status as an elite player. He never got a huge payday, ala, Adrian Beltre. (I mention Adrian Beltre not because he took steroids but because he had a curiously productive career year which coincided

I would be smiling too if I robbed a Major League Baseball Team

with his free agency year. Beltre has not come close to duplicating those numbers.) It is worth noting that Adrian Beltre had his huge season, .334 AVG and 48 HR’s in 2004. Jones’ best seasons came in 2005 and 2006. Despite being poised to receive a huge payday in free agency, Jones fizzled. One has to wonder why this occurred.

It is a shame because Jones could have been the Griffey Junior of his era. Now he is hoping for at-bats on the White Sox.

I know the steroid angle is played out and that no one cares anymore because most people assume all baseball players are guilty of something. However, any player whose career was productive and who has a rapid decline is under suspicion. Plus, it should be noted, Jones is only 32, which means his career derailed in his late 20’s. A little early for a guy who was pretty consistent over a 10 year span to suddenly lose the ability to hit a baseball, especially when he was never injured.

The Hot Stove

I never knew why it was called the Hot Stove, and I suppose in the age of Google and Wikipedia, I could easily find the answer to that question. Ultimately, it does not matter so I will simply continue on in blissful ignorance. Sports has become a 24 hour a day, 365 investment. Baseball is no different. As soon as the season ends, whether your team won or lost the World Series, the question is the same, what about next season? It does not take long before everyone wonders where free agents are going, how much money they are going to get, and who is the favorite next year. The Yankees are already facing questions like, are they going to resign Johnny Damon? What about Matsui? Is Pettite going or coming back? What about Holliday, Bay, and Halladay? I mean this team just won the World Series. I am going to be honest. I do not have any inside information. No one at any of the NL East teams is feeding me information.
Here is what I do know and it has been said by much smarter and more eloquent people than I. You cannot win in the offseason. So let’s take a stab at some of the more popular off season rumors and take the opposite position and see where that gets us.

Popular Theory #1

The Phillies are only looking to add a third baseman and complimentary pieces. Otherwise, they are still the team to beat.

I have to be honest, despite the nausea that ensued from watching the World Series as a Mets fan, I was envious of the way the Phillies were constructed. However, that same World Series exposed a lot of problems that the other NL East teams were not in a position to capitalize on last year. Cole Hamels is a question mark. Can Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ be counted on to perform as well as they did last season? Jayson Werth a 40 HR guy? Did Brad Lidge turn into a pumpkin? The least of the Phillies problems is 3rd base. With the Phillies lineup, they need someone slightly better at the hot corner than, say, Roger Dorn. The Phillies though could use a Randy Wolf type starter or try and catch lightening in a bottle with Eric Bedard. Rafael Soriano is available and if he can stay healthy, he would be a great setup man, push Madson to the 7th inning and also serve as insurance should Brad Lidge regress further into pumpkin pie. (Hope you appreciate the seasonal reference.) I understand that the Phillies will not overspend for John Lackey, but pitching wins. You cannot outslug everyone, especially in the playoffs. The Phillies need to find find a wily veteran to play third base, like the Marlins did with Jorge Cantu, and hope for the best. The rest of whatever money is available should be poured into the starting rotation and the bullpen.

Free Agents to Target: Joe Crede, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, Billy Wagner, Melvin Mora, Adam Kennedy, Jason Marquis.

#2

The Braves should look to unload salary by trying to dump Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez.

I am going to say it, the Braves could be on the short list for the Wild Card next year. Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar, Adam LaRoche and Brian McCann create a pretty competitive lineup. Lowe, Hudson, Vazquez and Hanson are not a bad front 4. With the Mets and Phillies looking vulnerable, why would the Braves start bailing? While I dont think the Braves should make a run at Holliday or Bay to try and “go for it”, I do think they should look to invest their money. I am thinking Mike Cameron. I think they try to bring in Randy Wolf, or make a trade for Edwin Jackson. Speaking of trades, make an offer for Dan Uggla, I bet it would take less than you would think. The Braves can compete and though Lowe and Vazquez are huge contracts, can you really consider trading them? The Braves knew what they were getting into when they signed Lowe. Might as well make the best of it.

Free Agents to Target: Mike Cameron, Scott Podsednik, Marlon Byrd, Bobby Howry, Octavio Dotel.

#3

The Mets need to sign Matt Holliday and/or Jason Bay and/or John Lackey.

As a Mets fan, it would be great if the team could be run like fantasy baseball team. It cannot. While a left fielder would be great, and the Mets could sorely use the power, this team needs to be more artfully constructed then just plugging in Holliday. Now, the Mets could have a Yankee moment and burn money by signing Lackey and Holliday/Bay and turn the baseball world on its head, but that wont happen. This team needs a more focused approach. The Mets have won before with the likes of Darryl Hamilton, Benny Agbayani and Todd Pratt. The Mets need quality top to bottom. They need a solid rotation. The bench was exposed last season. The Mets should not have players on their team that might appear on a 1998 baseball card. Signing one big free agent will not solve this problem. There is better ways to invest money than in Holliday.

Free Agents to Target: Austin Kearns, Rich Harden, Adam Kennedy, Jarrod Washburn, Fernando Rodney, Jason Kendall, Jon Garland, Miguel Olivo.

#4

The Nationals should….

Eek. I dont know where to begin. The Nationals need to establish a winning culture. Right now, they are about inspiring as East Germany before the wall fell down. (Again, another culturally relevant point, Google it if you dont know why.) However, there is hope. Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman. Stephen Strasburg. A mildly intriguing starting rotation. The fact is, Washington, right now can neither afford nor attract top talent. So it needs to continue to build like it did when it signed Adam Dunn. In this market, given the fact that bigger teams are reluctant to give up draft picks and pay out top dollar, teams like the Nationals can sign players like Adam Dunn and thereby become competitive.

Free Agents to Target: Orlando Hudson, Justin Duchscherer, Hank Blalock, Ben Sheets, Brett Myers, Carl Pavano, Paul Byrd, Jose Contreras.

#5

Marlins? Marlins? Bueller?

As with the Nationals, the Marlins are a total mystery as to what direction they will take. They are rumored to be looking to move pieces. I just dont know. I dont even know what to say. It wouldnt surprise me if the Marlins found a way to finish below the Nationals next year or if they won the World Series. What I do know is that they have cheerleaders. Yes, you read it correctly. Rivaled only by the Kansas City Chiefs Cheerleaders for “Fewest Fans to Entertain”, the Marlins have decided cheerleaders are a good way to get people to the ballpark. They have been around for a few years and it always surprises me when I see them. Is this the UFL? What happened to this baseball game? How much are they getting paid? How much could a ticket possibly cost to sit directly behind them? Anyway, the Marlins will probably have one signing that makes you go, oh yea, remember when he was good for that one season? The Marlins should give out an award to that guy. Call it, the Ken Bottenfield Award and it should be written into the contract.

Free Agents to Target: Mike Hampton, Vicente Padilla, LaTroy Hawkins, Shawon Dunston, Russell Branyan, Bruce Chen, Eddie Guardado, Rocco Baldelli. (Although to type this list makes me feel like I am wasting my time).

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see who the teams in the NL East decide to sign and/or trade for, but there are always some surprises.

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