An In-Depth Look At… Clayton Kershaw.
Posted by QnsNative718 on 2:00pm, Tuesday July 7th 2009
The Mets (39-42) hope to stop the bleeding against the best team in baseball… The LA Dodgers (52-30) Yes, they are freakin 52-30. Anyway, in their way will be (LHP) Clayton Kershaw. Here’s the skinny on Kershaw (5-5 3.49 ERA 1.31 WHIP).
Full Name: Clayton Edward Kershaw
Born: March 19,1988 in Dallas, Texas
Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 Bats: Left Throws: Left
High School: Highland Park (Dallas, Texas) “Scots”
College: None
Drafted: Selected by Los Angeles Dodgers in 1st Round (7th overall) of 2006 amateur entry draft (June-Reg).
Lifetime Record (10-10 3.92 ERA 1.41WHIP)
Per MLB.com,
“On July 1 against the Colorado Rockies both sides to Kershaw’s game were evident. One on hand, he kept Rockies hitters off balance and prevented them from making solid contact. On the other hand, he was wild and erratic, walking five batters and exiting after throwing 97 pitches in five innings. For the day, Kershaw allowed one hit and struck out five. He has one career start against the Mets, giving up four runs in 3 2/3 innings.”
Kershaw’s last 2 starts courtesy of Foxsports,
(Sat. Jun 27, 2009) - Kershaw’s streak of scoreless innings came to an end Friday, but the left-hander still held the Mariners to two runs and five hits over six innings while striking out eight in an 8-2 victory.
Kershaw had held opponents scoreless over 12 2-3 innings spanning his previous two starts. Though that streak is over, the 21-year-old still hasn’t given up more than five hits in any of his last 11 outings, going 5-3 with a 2.48 ERA in that stretch. With Friday’s victory, Kershaw has won back-to-back starts for the first time in his career.(STATS, 4:59pm)
(Mon. Jun 22, 2009) - Kershaw pitched seven scoreless innings in a 5-3 win over the Angels on Sunday.
Kershaw walked four but allowed only four hits in his first win since May 27. Since failing to last three innings against San Diego on June 10, he hasn’t allowed a run in 12 2-3 innings spanning two games. “I thought he was terrific. That’s a huge game,” Dodgers manager Joe Torre said. “Two games ago, it was the worst game this year and the last two have been really, very good. He used a lot of offspeed today. I thought he mixed it up really well.”(STATS, 6:43pm)
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerNews?statsId=8180&fantasyNews=true
Per Wikipedia,
According to the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Kershaw’s fastball now sits comfortably in the mid 90s and he often mixes in a 71-77 MPH curveball, with a hard 1-to-7 trajectory (from hitter’s perspective). He is developing a circle-change that is considered to have “plus” potential. Kershaw has very clean mechanics and a power pitcher frame, without any history of arm trouble.
Scouting Report courtesy of thebaseballcube,
| Scouting Report | |
| Control: | 39 |
| K-Rating: | 99 |
| Efficiency: | 91 |
Control: Walks compared to batters faced.
k-Rating: Strikeouts compared to batters faced.
Efficiency: Similar to WHIP, a higher rating for pitchers allowing less baserunners per inning pitched.
The ratings are based on formulas that sum a player’s entire career based on available statistics in our database, including minor league and college data. These scouting scores are to be used as indicators of a player’s strength. A career minor leaguer might have a speed rating of 100 though this does not insinuate that he is a better runner than a major leaguer with a speed rating of 90. Though it does indicate that a player was an excellent base-stealer in the minors, we do not know how he would have fared in the majors.
***According to baseball-reference, through the age of 20, Kershaw’s numbers are similar to Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax. Great…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=kershcl01:Clayton%20Kershaw&st=age&compage=20&age=20
So what you’re saying is tonight is a battle of a pitcher that doesn’t give up many hits versus a team that doesn’t get many? Hmm…”Hello Vegas? Put it all on Kershaw!”
But hey, atleast we’ll see Manny!!!
: (
Neat, life gave me lemons, and you just peed on them.
LOL…ain’t that the truth. I’m so fed up with Manny and steroids in general. He should not be celebrated.
DeRosa just got thrown on the DL, imagine if he came to the Mets and that happened?
are you sure he’s not on the Mets?
Minaya wouldve been blasted. “How could you have not forseen this?!”
I’m optimistic. Last time the Mets faced Kershaw, he went 3.2 innings, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs and 4 walks.
AccuScore only gives the Mets a 40% chance of winning tonight. No way. I say 30%.
40% is VERY generous. What does AccuScore take into account when coming up with these numbers?
Not Jerry’s management skills apparently.
That’s not fair of me, this team is a wreck because of injuries and that’s not Jerry or Omar’s fault.
Would you give the Mets a %40 chance of winning if they faced the feared Savannah Sand Gnats?
*40%. Yikes..
The Mets have not had a pitcher as young and as good as Kershaw since… Doc?
Kazmir? Oh wait…
It’s probably true Wanny, BUT no young pitcher has ever been as good as Doc, so the argument is a bit jaded.
I’m not suggesting that we should have another one as good as Doc. I just think it would be nice if we had one as good as Kershaw during that time period.
I guess the next closest thing might have been generation K — but those guys were older by the time they reached the majors and obviously none were any good.
Kazmir wasn’t major league ready at 20.
though Kazmir did pitch pretty well at age 21 in the majors.
True, but when was the last time the Mets had the 7th pick in the first round of the draft? I’m not asking that to be a smartypants, I ask so that when I learn the answer I can be more depressed about the scouting and drafting.
I just checked. Pelfrey was 9th in ‘05. After him in the 1st round was just one pitcher who’s turned out better (so far) in Matt Garza. In ‘04 the Mets picked 3rd and got Johan Santana (I mean, Phil Humber).
MLB and NHL
drafts are way
more crap shoots then even the NBA or
NFL and there
are are no locks there either.
With baseball,
High School kids you have no idea how they’ll mature
phyically or
mentally AND
college kids
who b/c of the
bats among other things
simply play a
diff type of game.
NHL first rounders have a very high success rate (insofar as becoming NHL regulars).
Baseball is easily the biggest crap shoot of all sports in the draft.
Is it because of just so much competition or the fact that most of these guys just cant hang with the big boys?
I think Fong laid it out pretty well — hard to predict 18 year olds playing high school baseball against inferior competition, hard to predict college players stepping up in competition too — I’m sure more than half of the teams they play are talentless, the wooden bats, the international players who then come in and beat them out, etc.
The NBA, I think, is easier to evaluate because athleticism can take over, the courts are the same and with less competition the quality of comeptition is better.
The wooden bat thing especially kills me. Some guys can learn to hit with it and pitch to it, others just can’t it seems. I’m glad to have noticed that Ike Davis’ transition to wood seems to be getting better, cuz I was worried last year.
Interesting. I think whats also telling is how many minor leagues there actually are in any given organization. To make it to the Show is truely a remarkable feat.
Yes Qns, the Mets have 9 minor league teams (unless I’m forgetting even more): Buffalo, Binghamton, St. Lucie, Savannah, Brooklyn, Kingsport, GCL Mets, VSL Mets, DSL Mets
Is it safe to assume that all rookies start off at the very bottom and depending on skills, skips leagues?
Some high picks, particularly college players, may start as high as High A on rare occasions but more commonly will start at Low A. Lower drafted college players, high schoolers, and younger international signees usually start at Low A or R (Rookie) league (for the Mets in St. Lucie in the Gulf Coast League, or in the Dominican or Venezuela).
It’s not uncommon for players to skip levels at all.
Well I’m still learning about it all so I hope others will chime in too, but in covering the 2009 draft class what I’ve learned is:
most guys start at either Rookie League (Appalachian League/Kingsport Mets) or Short Season A League (New York-Penn League/Brooklyn).
Of the 26 guys who’ve signed so far, 11 went to Kingsport and 8 to Brooklyn.
That does make sense about the College players. In essence College Ball is probably on the same level as a rookie league and many College managers/coaches have some MLB expertise.
Thanks for the fyi, Grave.
True, and even if they do turn out to be fantastic major league baseball players you don’t know what demons such as addiction might do to them later.
Humber was 3rd overall in 2004…
Yes I looked it up after asking, should’ve done that before instead.
Even in ‘04 though, while there are clearly guys who’ve turned out better than Humber, none of that year’s first rounders are/were Kershaw-esque.
Verlander is closest, but was a college guy, as were Humber, Niemann, Sowers, Townshend, Jered Weaver and Perkins in that 1st round. Phil Hughes is the only HS pitcher from that draft that I’m familiar with and 5 years later he’s not exactly setting the world on fire.
I agree that factoring in the age of the players makes it more difficult to pluck a Kershaw into the organization.
Perhaps we should strive to obtain players as good as Kershaw at any age.
I’m still not certain we’ve had a pitching prospect as good as this guy since Doc, Pelfrey included.
All fair. Is if fair to ask the same question of the Dodgers, when have they had a pitching prospect as good as Kershaw? Are Kershaw and Doc just once in a generation type talents, or does Chad Billingsley make my question moot?
I’d say Billingsley ends it.
I thought so but I wanted a second opinion, thanks.
Could we add Nomo in to the mix for the dodgers or does a Japanese pro not count for these purposes (it does count for rookie of the year purposes)?
The Dodgers always seem to have pitching prospects but my head hurts too much to think of others right now — and Doc Gooden was a long time ago!
Id say Nomo counts. Japanese ball cant compare to the MLB. Not to sound elitist but theres no comparison. The Dodgers took a gamble and it turned out to be a good investment.
I take the opposite tack as Qns, I don’t consider the Japanese professionals true rookies, even though MLB does. Clearly those guys have a head start in playing with wooden bats and in a professional environment/atmosphere.
Does using wooden bats really make that much of a difference?
Grave, Id say its definately different when comparing Japanese hitters and pitchers. The hitters tend to do very well compare alot of the pitchers who turned out to be busts.
Ask the pitchers who have to duck the comebackers in NCAA games.
*compare to alot
Good point.
In my amateur opinion, yes they do. With aluminum bats a pitcher can “jam” a batter inside, but the hitter can get a hit nonetheless.
So the pitchers become afraid to pitch inside and spend years not doing so.
The hitters get lots of hits when they get jammed which when they have wooden bats are pop ups and foul balls, so they don’t learn to “hit it on the sweet spot.”
Also what is home run power with aluminum can be warning track power with wood, even if you do hit it “sweet.”
The big reason why I am a fan of Cape Cod League summer baseball is that college players populate it, and they use wood bats. So it helps with both the hitters and pitchers transition, IMO.
Very well put, sir.
Paul Wilson? I keed, I keed.
Wilson should be a model of caution for
the Nats with Strasburg/Boras.
He was every bit the the Can’t miss MLB
ready,top of the rotation Ace Strasburg
is claimed to be right
now.
Excellent points, Foggy. Atleast they didnt sign him for $50M. Can you believe the balls on Boras?
*Fongy. Sorry, bud.
I do at this point w/Boras.
b/t/w,I can be foggy at times no doubt.
uh, Mike Pelfrey
part of the equation was “as young.” Kershaw at 21 is better than Pelfrey was at 21.
Yeah, the key is age. Pelfrey is a stud, but Kershaw has so much ahead of him.
Kershaw might be better than Pelfrey is now.
I think it’s pretty close. One thing to notice is that hitters have been fairly lucky against Pelfrey, not so against Kershaw, but I think ultimately Kershaw will be better.
So Wanny you wouldn’t trade Church for Rios straight up?
That’s relevant.
And no, Rios will be paid 12.5m per year until 2015, has declined each of the last 4 seasons and his career percentages are exactly the same as Church’s.
Maybe Jerry will let the guy play finally and do his thing.
Why always so nasty Wanny?
b/t/w whats Churchs thing? .270/15/70 over a full season?
What was nasty?
And I’m not posting Church’s and Rios’ avg/obp/slg again.
Your reliance on HR/RBI is misplaced. Church has never had the 711 plate apperances that Rios had to hit 24 HR and drive in 82 runs.
Yet, their career slugging percentages are practically identical.
Dude,you really are all alone in your belief Church is/has been as good a player as Rios.You know that deep down don’t you?
Its Okay,you can admit your argument is wrong.You’re among friends here.
It’s painfully clear that you have either not read or not comprehended a single word I’ve written on this subject.
So please stop stalking me about it until you go back and re-read what was written in the other topic.
This is the seventeenth time I’m telling you that I have not said Church is better than Rios but that the “clear” advantage you have claimed for Rios is not, in fact, so clear.
They produce at about the same rates. Rios’s advantages are in his ability to steal bases (which is of minimal importance) and his demonstrated ability to hit pitchers from both hands.
His career totals are a product of a greater playing opportunity than Church has received. Church has not failed at hitting lefties (the stats are in the other topic) but he has not had a chance at it for whatever reason (i.e. a crownded outfield in Washington, concussions and Jerry Manuel).
Their OBPs and SLGs are nearly identical. They both play excellent defense, in my opinion Church’s a little better.
As far as me being “all alone” in my belief that Rios is not head and shoulders above Church (even if he is slightly better), the only other person who has weighed in on the subject has been in agreement with my position (and that is a person whose opinion I respect because he is not afraid to look at the facts before forming his opinion).
You can continue to twist my words if you want. But I really have no interest in discussing this with you anymore; at least not until you get my position straight and at least acknowldge the mountains of data I provided in the other topic.
For what it’s worth, I believe that Church is on par with Rios. Certainly relative to money, Church is more valuable.
uh oh. Better watch your back!
Fongy…relative to ballpark Church has had a slightly better career. Factoring in defensive effort Church has been better (although in fielding alone, Rios is probably slightly superior at present, Church having a fair advantage with the arm). I’ll grant you that Rios is younger and may have more upside, there’s a good chance Church’s best years are behind him. Once you look at the dollar effect though, Church is the hands down winner. Rios is overpaid and Church is underpaid. That has to count for a lot.
And, of course, your opinion is always appreciated (even when you’re wrong about Tim Redding!).
And before you try to jump on durability, etc, remember Church played for the Nats (a team that has no clue who to play or when) and he had a FREAK injury last year.
Wanny! We will have no Redding discussion here!
Again,you are funny!!
Just not Ha,ha funny Wanny.
I got your position my fellow Met fan.
If Church had shown froma young day he could hit lefties,hadn’t been held back by Cleveland and Washington,hadn’t been often
injured and had more speed
he’d be about what Rios is as aplayer.
Right?
Okay then! Got it!
Oh,and We’ll just over look Rios being about a.290 hitter as opposed to Church being about a .270hitter While being almost 3yrs older.Except for those things they’re about the same guy.No?
If you want to be archaic and rely on batting average to make your determination, go right ahead.
But their OBPs and SLGs are about the same.
And I posted in the other topic, Church’s platoon stats for 2005 and 2006, which show that your bald-faced, factless assertion that he failed against left handed hitters was without merit. You continue to ignore that and the fact that he was competing for playing time with more experienced outfielders including Austin Kearns and Jose Guillen who were being paid big league money.
And for the absolute last time — my beef is with your claim that Rios is clearly better. He might be better… but it’s not by much.
nitpicker
That’s my job. Was going to go with “NitpickerHebner” but none of Richie Hebner’s baseball cards ever mentioned anything about him picking nits.
There is always 2013!
that phillies nleastchatter blog is just so damn ugly to look at. it blinds you. (besides the fact that no one comments it). whats it gonna take to write on this blog without getting blasted?
dont worry…say the words and ill poof and leave. but promise you this im not here to taunt…just want to interact with the otherside of the 8 ball
You have to get jumped in
It’s kind of like the Mob
More like the Crips.
Aww c’mon, those are team colors! That Phillies blog is pretty new, I’m sure it would help if you posted a few comments to break the ice, and told your fellow Phils fans about it too. This Met blog had a bit of a head start in that a lot of us came over together from another Met related blog that made some comment section changes. But the long term goal is to get people reading and posting comments at all the NL East team’s blogs, as well as the NL East Chatter hub, and then get some good interaction going between the blogs like you contributed to today.
mattsmith?
hahaha come on! look at it!!! its unreadable. besides its more fun to talk baseball and debate…and yes i meant REAL debates!
with mets fans
That’s fair, but I do believe the only way that blog will grow is if some people take the time to post there. I can’t speak for how the operator would receive it, but I would say constructive criticism for that blog left there is more likely to reach the right people than if it’s left here. We started out with crickets and tumbleweeds in some respects.
yea i gotcha. is this your way of saying poof! be gone hahaha
No, not at all. Just hoping that you will also comment there sometimes, while continuing to engage in good debate here. As comments continue to grow there, the debate can happen there too.
i will take the advice of someone on here and post the link to mlb.com forum once the 24 hour wait period is up
Did you think about “recruiting” some Philly fans from the MLB.com messege boards? Theyre alot of uhhhh opionated folks over there.
By the way, the last time I was interacting with a Phillies fan, was in a bar fight. haha, I love you guys.
hahahaha you gotta love it
We will let you in if you get us utlet and take castillo
tempting
whats your guys feeling if the phillies got pedro? happy that you could soon light him up or upset that the bullpen is no longer rounded out by a no name minor leaguer to rough up?
I would be about 60/40 mix of this:
60 excellent a guy for the Mets to knock around;
40 because I am cursed to be a Met fan surely Pedro will come into Citi Field as a Phillie and throw a no-hitter, they all throw no-hitters after they leave.
I like to think the phillies are a team with character(don’t scorch me on that comment)…something pedro has none of. I dont see him fitting in and I just don’t like the idea of it.
Whatever you think of his character I hope you acknowledge that he has been one of the best, if not the best, pitcher in the steroid era. His Expo and Red Sox years are unparalleled. Check out 1997-2003, truly amazing.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml
of course but where has he been lately. and I dont mean lately as in the dominican…I mean since he came to the mets. A 38/39 year old burnout isn’t much to lust over
Fair point. I’m a Met fan that understands what we got was the “after-Pedro” Pedro. That’s why 60% of me is excited to have the Phillies sign the “after-after-Pedro.” But I lived in Boston when he was just “Pedro” and man was he fun to watch. I’ve seen in person in their primes Doc Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela, Roger Clemens, Dave Stewart, and Pedro Martinez. It was a privilege to see them all, and my fellow Met fans may kill me for it, but Petey was the best one to me.
Imagine pedro restored to his glory in 09! Who would need Halladay? Hahaha…dream on.
A mets fan in red sox nation? Oh the horror
It is actually a great relationship if you agree to not mention 1986 (or 1918, but anyway since 2004 that doesn’t bother them much anymore). We have our common dislike of the Yankees that brings us together.
hahaha I dont think there is a better dislike to have in common. Sox are fun to watch man. Saw them from the monster this weekend…great stuff. except for that damn JD Drew
What would it matter we couldn’t hit him either
Speaking of pitching prospects, here’s what Baltimore has on the horizon:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=4310817
scary thought for the al east. with the jays looking pretty good lately adding the orioles would make quite a gauntlet
I’m not an insider, it won’t let me in. Related to our discussion of 1st round draft picks above, does that article mention Wade Townshend?
nope
phillies09, shoot an email to msmith@nleastchatter.com if you have any suggestions on his site, including colors, or let me know mrose@nleastchatter.com … as many said, that site is literally like a week old
ok cool. thanks a lot
I think Wade is long gone…
The pitchers are Chris Tillman (acquired with Adam Jones for Eric Bedard), Brian Matusz (an ‘08 draft pick who would probably be okay in the majors today), Jake Arrieta and then a couple of guys to possibly fill in the bottom of the rotation.
OK, thanks. I heard the MLB Network guys the other night gushing about Matusz and Arrieta.
Interesting that Seattle got so much more for Bedard than Minny got for Santana.
Obviously, Santana’s contract demands were a big obstacle but I bet Minnesota would give the whole Mets package back for Adam Jones or Chris Tillman alone.
I’m confused? Bedard wasn’t traded was he?
no
I should have said Baltimore got so much more for Bedard…
sorry…I couldve read into that a little and realized
By the way, one of the hottest prospects in baseball right now is Michael Taylor, a Phillies outfielder.
He might be the guy that gets the Phils that last pitcher they need — if they’re willing to give him up.
He’s hitting 349 .412 .601 at AA Reading. That’s serious power.
Yea and to phillie fans the second most coveted prospect
http://www.reclinergm.com/who-is-your-untouchable-prospect/
Our outfield is deep currently and the future is now. I say ship him off!
Drabek is obviously a good prospect too. But he’s probably a little further away — not because of his performance or level (they’re both at AA) but because he still needs to develop arm strength and stamina after his injury.
He won’t be pushed. Taylor is loose.
The 100 innings Drabek has pitched this season so far are already the most in his career.
Right. The way I see it is that you don’t know what’s going to happen in the future. You don’t know who will pan out, what positions you will need due to injuries, who you can acquire from trades, etc… Some of these talents in the minors you’ve been saving could get stuck or blocked. If you have an opportunity to strongly help your team by dealing some of them, then do it…
That being said I think this trading deadline will be the first real sign pointing to whether Ruben will follow Gilick’s footsteps or make his own path.
Kershaw leads all of ML in walks? I’m sure that’s only b/c Ollie has been on the DL.
Sigh…..