Breaking News: Church to Braves for Frenchy!!
Posted by dirtysanchez on 6:15pm, Friday July 10th 2009
Per Adam Rubin:
Jeff Francoeur has been acquired from the Braves for Ryan Church and cash.
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Vcarver over at Metsblog put this up:
“Frenchy got his career off to a blistering start in late 2005, and followed that up with a 100+ RBI season in 2006. However, Frenchy’s very liberal approach at the plate has actually made him a below-average player (in terms of WPA/LI) for the last three years running.”
“So, Francoeur is swinging at fewer strikes while still fishing outside of the zone far too regularly. If anything, it appears as though his plate discipline is actually getting worse. Coupled with a puzzling loss of power (his ISO has dropped at least 30 points each year), it becomes very difficult to recommend Frenchy as anything more than a late-round flyer. He’ll still be just 25 next season, but until he can prove that he has some semblance of pitch recognition, it’s best to let someone else become frustrated while waiting for Francoeur to break out.”
============================
The above are excerpts from a November 2008 article at fangaphs. Apparently, the Braves found that “someone” to take Francoeur off their hands.
Current figures at frangraphs show Church’s current dollar value to be 1.7 million dollars, while Fancoeur is a (negative) -2.6 million. Church is also currently leading Francoeur in defensive UZR/150 by about 9 runs. So it would appear the defense has just gotten worse. I wonder if the Mets front office ever looks at stats.
I’m pretty confident they checked out the “games played” stats and the “date of birth” stats.
lol I’m sure the Mets front office has first dibs on baseball cards and that’s probably the extent of their baseball facts research.
no, they just listen to guys on the bagel line.
Ryan Church’s Met career, when added together, is one whole season:
157 games, 551 ABs, 80 R, 153 H, 30 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 71 RBI, .278 BA
I don’t know what people were expecting to pull in for that. I don’t know what people were expecting from him if he stayed. But that’s him. .278/14/71
For an interesting take on the trade and the season I quote Eric Simon’s blog Amazin! Avenue:
“The Mets have solved all of their problems by trading Ryan Church to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Mets fans rejoice: the World Series is officially ours!
[Added by Sam]:
Growing up in Tennessee, most of my friends were Braves fans. I endured some painful moments throughout the 90s. Once Minaya came aboard, however, things improved. The Mets were better than the Braves, a result of the Mets improving and the Braves getting noticeably worse.
I used to talk up Lastings Milledge to them. He’s got range. He can hit for power. Once Lastings comes up, you guys won’t stand a chance. It was partly just me jokingly hyping the legend of an already hilarious persona. Yet, I believed. Milledge had the skills and the upside that few players his age did. When they traded Lastings to the Nationals for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider my friend’s laughed. The player I had constantly been hyping was traded for an outfielder the Nats were benching. It was embarrassing. I told my friends at least he wasn’t Jeff Francoeur. They got off my back.
Yet here we are again. After the Mets traded Milledge for Church they said it was upside for defense and reliability. Now, after trading Church for Francoeur they say it’s reliability for upside. This explanation is just as specious as the first one. Omar Minaya just traded our third best hitter for a Sports Illustrated cover from 2005.
…love the deal…
…the Mets needed to shake up the roster… the potential francoeur has is much greater than that of church, plus the Mets lose nothing on the defensive side… -Metsblog
What upside? His mythical, BABIP-inflated, flukey rookie year? The guy has plate discipline that makes Omir Santos look like Barry Bonds. People talk about Francoeur’s “‘improvements” this year, which have tangibly resulted in a better 82% contact rate. Unfortunately, that means very little when you walk at a 3.8% rate. Less than 4% of his plate appearances result in a walk. For a team that was already having trouble getting baserunners, the Mets should expect to have ZERO offense going forward.
According to fangraphs, Francoeur was a 3.6 WAR player in 2007, but that was almost entirely the product of UZR rating his arm as +16 runs. Sure he has a great arm, but that number looks like a huge aberration. Not to mention, since 2007 his OPS has dropped from .782 to .653, this year sitting at a hefty .634.
Just over the course of this season, Francoeur’s ZiPS rest-of-season projeciton is .304 wOBA, which seems pretty generous the way he’s been hitting. By contrast, Church is projected at .344, an actually respectable number. Over a projected 280 PA for the rest of the year, that’s eleven runs difference in offense. Factor in that nearly every defensive metric likes Church better in rightfield than Francoeur and you have a loss of 1.5 wins over the course of the season. Using the conservative estimate that 1 WAR is equivalent to 4 million dollars, that’s 6 million lost just this season. Factor in that Francoeur is actually making $575,000 more than Church this season, Minaya has essentially flushed 7 Million dollars and any hope of a playoff run down the toilet. He’s seemingly done the impossible: make this bunch of scrubs a few wins worse.
And that’s just the damage for this season! Minaya will probably plan on Francoeur being the rightfielder for the coming years, just to prove he was right about his “upside”. Has anyone been paying attention? The real reason the Mets don’t make the playoffs despite having four of the best players in the National League: terrible complementary players in important positions. Francoeur is the offensive black-hole of rightfielders. Minaya is seemingly perfecting his own model for making non-contender teams. I seriously think he looked at the back of his baseball cards, saw Francoeur’s averages and RBIs from past season and made the trade. Can anyone point out OBP on the scoreboard to Mr. Minaya?
I hope I’m wrong, but there’s no Ryan Church coming from the other end of this deal. Minaya has seemingly conceded this season, and that’s what makes this deal hurt most of all.”
Listening to Jerry’s comments on this trade on the post game show. Said ‘he’s a good defensive player - not that I’m looking for defense right now.’
Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Church a good defensive player too?
Said, he’s got some pop. Yeah, but not in a few years.
Now he’s praising Church. Said: ‘He became an everyday player for us. Thought he did very well here. He was hitting .280, right?’
Well, since when did Church play everyday? Did I miss something here?
And Bobby O. goes on to say the worst thing that could happen is Jeff comes in here feeling pressure, feeling he’s got to change things to help this ball club. I hope he has some thick skin b/c our fans are the same ones who booed Johan on the mound.
This trade has nothing to do with making this team better this year. Taking a flyer, although a long shot, at a kid who might turn things around for himself while getting rid of Church who we all know was not gonna be resigned.
lol…but check this out
jerry didnt like ramon castro(miami game in april)…castro is gone
jerry didnt like church…church is gone…..
noticing a trend….
Ted Berg’s column on this subject is great (see Flusing Fussing under Spyder). I usually like what Ted has to say and this time is no different. Well thought out, backed up with stats, realistic breakdown of this trade. Those most distressing thing? He said defensively, according to UZR and Bill Jame’s plus/minus, he’s been a below average RF due to his lack of range.
Yikes!
He starts out:
About a month ago, when things really started to crumble for the Mets, I wrote this:
If the Mets trade for Jeff Francoeur, I’m out. I’ll find someone else to write this column.
*************
Double Yikes! Tells you what Ted thinks about JF….
Okay, I’m probably mixing loves (Mets and music), but I can only think of one person when I read JF and that’s John Frusciante.
I like the trade because I don’t like this team. This is one move away from it. I’m sure Omar had enough of hearing about the concussions, flights with post concussion syndrome, etc.
But, here’s the thing, Frenchy has produced on the big league level. He is 25 and he’s got power and can play defense. I don’t know about his range factor, but I do know that his arm is a cannon and it completely changes the way third base coaches approach a medium fly ball with a man on third or a grounder through the hole with a guy on second.
The season is on the brink, Church wasn’t going to do anything to help. Maybe Frenchy’s new scenery will bring back the power.
His OBP is god awful, he never walks, and he strikes out a ton (although his K count is half that of Wright’s right now). We shall see, but at least there is something different.
Keep going Omar.
I know Frenchy is not “the answer” and most evidence points to the fact that he is not “an answer” but given that we traded away .278/14/71, I don’t think we traded away “the” or “an” answer either.
well, i like the trade and i don’t think there are any answers to this team’s problems right now anyway.
I agree, I did a poor job of making it clear but my comment was in support of yours above it, specifically the portion where you stated “Church wasn’t going to do anything to help.”
This is a good move guys!
I agree. I know I liked Church more than you did, but I agree that this is a good move. A gamble, yes, but one worth taking considering where the team stands.
Heb,read my post in the post game thread and let me know what you think.
I like this move. More needs to be done but Francoeur is 5 years younger and actually has had productive years. Church is 30 and is simply an injury prone borderline everyday player who is very streaky and inconsistent. When healthy.
Keep going Omar.
At first I was ambivalent about the trade. I remembered that old movie Stalag 17 where the German Commandant announced that there will be a change today. The POWs cheered until the Commandant announced you will change underwear with you and you with you, etc. That is what I thought about this trade. Frenchy produced until the pitchers figured him out and he has not been able to adjust to it. Do you really think HoJo will help him? Hopefully he will straighten him out. But then I started to read how the Braves had given up on Frenchy and how they benched him for 3 games this week. More important I started to read the stats and they don’t lie. I already posted some of the more important stats. My congratulations to the Braves that they managed to unload Frenchy on the Mets and receive lower priced talent that will help them in a platoon situation in return. PT Barnum was right.