Bullet in the Chamber….A look into Omar Minaya’s choices
Posted by dirtysanchez on 3:00pm, Friday July 10th 2009
Right now the Mets are in one of the most unprecedented situations that has faced a Major League team in this era of baseball. The majority of their offense is on the disabled list and some of their pitchers are there as well. While the Mets today find themselves 5.5 out of first place, by all rights they should be much worse off. We all knew that the team we have right now cannot compete with better and healthier equipped teams in the NL and while they have fought valiantly, it seems the reality of their predicament is finally revealing its ugly head. At the center of all this is their General Manager Omar Minaya who has the daunting task of fielding a competitive team to keep people coming to see his product. While most fans according to Matt Ceronne’s segment on SNY’s broadcasts in yesterday’s game have “one eye toward next season”, I do believe there is a minority of fans that believe that the Mets can still salvage the season. I am in this group of fans as well as most of the fans that visit our site but what I wanted to focus on is the difficulties in the decision that our GM must make this month while he has a chance to.
Jon Heymen on WFAN this morning said the Mets have zero chance of acquiring Roy Halladay due to the Mets unwillingness to part with prospects Brad Holt (P), Fernando Martinez (OF), Ike Davis (1B) and Jenrry Mejia (P). Now many of the Mets prospects are a few years away from actually being Major League ready and able to produce at this level but let’s just dive into what I believe are the wheels turning in Omar Minayas head.
The Mets are currently 40-44 and 5.5 out of first place. The Mets survived a 9-18 June that in any division would be catastrophic but on the first day of July, the Mets were only 2 games out of first place. The Mets main offensive players Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado are due back after the All Star Break and at latest mid August. The Mets 8th inning specialist JJ Putz should be back by late August, early September. There is no time table yet for John Maine but with the great performances of Fernando Nieve, he can tithe us over until John Maine is ready to pitch. I also may get a surprised by a returning closer, Billy Wagner, who could join the team in September.
At the end of this year the following players will be without a contract (some are arbitration eligible/options and also this information was obtained via the best resource for MLB contracts Cots Baseball Contracts)… Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, JJ Putz, Brian Schneider, Ryan Church, John Maine, Tim Redding, Alex Cora, Mike Pelfry, Fernando Tatis, Pedro Feliciano, Livan Hernandez, Jeremy Reed, Ramon Martinez, Elmer Dessens, Angel Pagan, Ken Takahashi, Sean Green, Fernando Nieve, Brian Stokes, Nick Evans, Pat Misch, Dan Murphy, Fernando Martinez, John Niese, Bobby Parnell and Omir Santos. Now im sure some or most of these players will be back but for purposes of evaluation, the Mets will only have two starting pitchers(Johan Santana, Oliver Perez), one bullpen member(Francisco Rodriguez), second baseman(Luis Castillo), short stop(Jose Reyes), third base(David Wright) and center field(Carlos Beltran) that are guarantied to return for the 2010 season. The Mets will have holes in starting pitching (3), first base, left field, right field, catcher, the bench and bullpen. The Mets obligations for next year total to 96 million.
Given those vacancies next year and the 2010 FA outlook (thanks to MLB Trade Rumors), Omar needs to consider his draft picks for FA and also the team’s payroll. Omar also needs to consider if this team can stay close enough to 1st place for their returning offense to have any impact on the remaining season. What makes the decisions harder is the way the last two seasons ending. The collapse in 2007 and coming up just short with another injury riddled season in 2008 puts Omar in a precarious position that he must find a way for this team to get the job done. The problem is the teams that are usually out of the race at this point and that are the ideal trade partners are still “in it”. Also the Mets misfortunes are no secret to anyone and given the Mets play in a big market and must compete, those teams may over value the players that the Mets are inquiring about to solicit more talent for what they are giving up in return. Most teams are executing most likely the basics of economics, supply and demand. Another theory is those teams are just waiting on other teams in “contention” to inquire about the same players to compare the packages, which by all rights they can do. Bottom line is no teams are going to stand in line to help the Mets.
Omar has the Burdon of managing a team in a big market team that has just opened up a brand new state of the art stadium and is expected to compete all year. Most other teams would have just forfeited the season and look toward the future for prosperity but I do not believe Omar has that luxury. Omar does not have a crystal ball to know how the next month will play out. The reality is the Mets destiny as it stands now is controlled by the division leading Phillies until they are able to have a team that can compete. Omar must juggle the future of the Mets along with their present with little to no margin of error. The Mets have many other prospects that are not named by Heyman like Thole, Flores, Niese, Havens, Marte, Kunz, Gee, Moviel, Shaw, Beaulae, Tejada, Antoini, Guerra and Pena that may be available. The question remains however that if you had to balance the future of a multi-million dollar franchise with the pressure of wining now and in the future, would you let yourself get taken advantage of by “overpaying” for talent that does not guarantee anything? Would you wait around until your main offense comes back but gamble on the Philly and their inconsistencies? With two and a half months left in this season, would you concede on this season without knowing what could happen to the Phillies (Ibanez did get injured) and a potential opening could present itself that if you had the pieces you traded away, the team could have made the post season? My main point to all this is that Omar Minaya’s job is much more difficult than people make it out to be and while im certain Omar wants to help this team in its time of need, he may have to consider making tough decisions. Some maybe to the dismay of many fans but just as im sure many of our readers who are parents understand…sometimes the right decision is usually the hardest and most unpopular.
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Nice piece. And my aging eyes appreciate the large typeface. And I wil lbe gracious enough to not point out the spelling and grammer erros (bloggers hate that!) Just yanking your chain BTW> don’t get mad at me.
anyway, pretty much spot on analysis. But, the one thing that I tend to not agree with is the “big market, have to win, can’t have a bad year, etc.” theory. Bad years hapen, and teams have to (if not rebuild) at least retool at times. No team (without an unlimited budget) can really expect to compete every year with no gaps.
But, when you have the window, certainly you try to go for it, but sometimes you aren’t as close as you think you are (the root cause of the Kazmir debacle).
If they where honestly 1 piece away from being a post season favorite, then you can justify opening up the farm a bit. But when you have this many holes, you relaly have to be more concerned with the future, while trying as best as you can to stay competitive.
IMO, the Phils (Halladay) are much more in the 1 player to glory (and win now) mode.
I am fine with Omar retaining his best prospects, with an eye toward 2010. But, I don think he botched up plugging the gaps for the last month. He should have gotten some ML capable talent instead of F Mart, A reyes, etc. Either take on salary, or trades for mid to low tier prospects. Not expecting great guys, but at least seviceable ones to hold the fort.
SO, at this point, I dont see the magic bullet that will put them over the top. So don’t do anything rash, and still try to get a few better reinforcements to hoepfully stay close, and hope for the miracle finish with the “calvery”
If he does anything big, it needs to be to fill a 2010 hole too.
So, in summary, better to hoard until the off season, and make a real, viable big vision plan and try to execute it, instead of some panic knee-jerk trades now.
Oh, and IMO again, met fans will be OK with a modest rebuilding period, if they see the light at the end of the tunnel. Better than a constant cycle of retreads, and no visable future.
met fans will be OK with a modest rebuilding period, if they see the light at the end of the tunnel.
That light is so far away that it’s just a dot right now… lol
IMO we can’t truthfully discuss the size of the light at the end of the tunnel or where the tunnel is even located because the train is still moving down the tracks toward a junction, and until the conductor decides which track to take when the train reaches that junction any speculation about the light at the end of the tunnel is just so much mental masturbation.
Put that in your metaphor pipe and smoke it.
hahaha
Lol i tried to get as much spelling and grammer fixed through abc check as possible lol….
well i dont agree with the big market thing either but it is a reality. The yankees and mets(on opening day) had the 1 and 2 payrolls in all of baseball. They are in their inagurial season with a brand new staidum..in reality i dont think they will conceed and rebuild for the future anytime soon. They are gonig to try and get the job done with what they have but i believe omar is commited to break away from the old philosopy of trading the farm away for a team to win now. If that wasnt the case, we would have been traded away everyone already.
Grammar.
ahhhhhhhhhhhhh lol
guess i should ask MC for a job
Good read, Dirty! I sure wouldn’t want Omar’s job right about now…it’s a touch road but I don’t believe he should make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. He will take a lot of heat though if he does stand pat and we end up not making it at the end of the season. He will need a thick skin to stand by what he thinks is best if that is indeed what he does.
*tough
thanks girl…i wanted to show how difficult it is right now to be Omar and i agree..i would soo not want his job right now lol.
Omar knows that if it comes down to it, the wilpons will give him the Willie treatment.
Wet Willie?
Meh…a piece or two just won’t make the difference this year. This is 1987 redux. I say focus on getting the core healthy and being ready with some new pieces for 2010. If this is 87, next year can be 88….only with a more just result.
Pagan, cf
Cora, ss
Murphy, 1b
Wright, 3b
Church, rf
Reed, lf
Reyes, 2b
Schneider, c
Nieve, rhp
Ok Pagan in the lineup, but why is Castillo sitting. OurAnus Reyes is what his nick name implies. I also understand that Sheff needs rest every once in a while but Jerry needs to put out a consistant lineup everyday. Also Omar sends down Evans, which I understand doesnt neccesarily have a spot with Pagan back now, but please dont tell me we dont have a better middle IF option in the minors.
Not only is Reyes in the lineup, but batting seventh? How about batting this guy ninth if you must play him, he is terrible. They should just DFA Reyes and bring that Castillo guy up they got from the White Sox. At least it looks like he’s got some pop in his bat if nothing else. Omar has neglected the importance of minor-league depth for awhile now, guess we shouldn’t expect that to change. Argenis Reyes never sniffs the majors in any other organization, yet he’s spent time with the Mets each of the last two years. I guess they want Evans to get everyday ABs, that’s fine, but I want Reyes gone too. Oh well, at least Pagan’s back. Hope he can stay upright for a few games because I really like this guy.
Here are Javier Castillo’s numbers since joining Buffalo about a month ago. .326 avg. .374 OBP, .522 Slug (.895 OPS). Six doubles, four homers, 12 RBIs. Has played some short and third, not sure about second. Anyway, I’d rather see some fresh blood up here than another weakling who can’t get the ball out of the infield.
Honestly you shouldnt expect the moves that make sense in this organization. A. Reyes couldnt hit what Castillo has hit so far in AAA, but A. Reyes is in the majors with his .073 batting average. Being in the Majors is one thing, Jerry starting him is another.
Omar and Jerry’s idiocy on the small matters is starting to get tiring.
I agree I hope he can stay healthy too.This is a real decent looking out field tonight amazing what 1 player does for this team imagine what another player playing in the infeild would look like? Probably a noncontending team but one that could win half of its games
Why is Reyes playing in this game? Why not Castillo? Jerry you are f’in killing me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think it’s Jerry’s way of acknowledging the season is over. Keep Castillo as fresh as possible for next year? I agree…idiocy.
Argenis Reyes is still trying to figure who the hell kidnapped him and put a baseball jersey on him. “What the hell, they’re paying me.”
It would be more funny, If it werent true.
How about the whole Philthie outfield being all-stars? That disgusts me. Maybe cause their numbers are ballooned by a band box.
Mets trade Church to Braves for Francoeur, per ESPN and AP.