Santana: Where is our Ace? (The Dirty Truth)
Posted by Mr North Jersey on 4:00pm, Wednesday August 5th 2009
Johan Santana’s line last night was
8/IP - 9/H - 5/ER - 0/BB - 6/SO
He was quoted as saying “I felt I did my job”. His job? I though his job as an ace was to to be a shutdown starter. I know he has had his solid starts but he has been too inconsistent in my opinion.
Look at his last 11 starts:
6/09 - 7.0 innings 5 earned runs
6/14 - 3.0 innings 9 earned runs
6/20 - 7.1 innings 2 earned runs
6/25 - 7.0 innings 1 earned runs
6/30 - 6.0 innings 5 earned runs
7/05 - 7.0 innings 2 earned runs
7/11 - 7.0 innings 0 earned runs
7/18 - 7.0 innings 0 earned runs
7/24 - 6.2 innings 5 earned runs
7/30 - 7.0 innings 0 earned runs
8/04 - 8.0 innings 5 earned runs
Compare that to 2008
6/12 - 7.0 innings 0 earned runs
6/17 - 6.0 innings 4 earned runs
6/23 - 7.0 innings 1 earned runs
6/28 - 6.0 innings 3 earned runs
7/04 - 8.0 innings 2 earned runs
7/09 - 5.0 innings 0 earned runs
7/17 - 4.0 innings 5 earned runs
7/22 - 8.0 innings 2 earned runs
7/27 - 9.0 innings 1 earned runs
8/02 - 6.1 innings 1 earned runs
8/07 - 7.0 innings 2 earned runs
Five of his last 11 starts he has allowed 5 or more runs. Now compare that to around the same stretch in 2008 where he allowed more than 5 runs in just 1 start.
This is not what you expect from your Ace in 2009. Some blogs described his last start as having “fought and stuck it out“.
How do you feel? If he continues this trend will you say well he fought and stuck it out?
On a final note ask yourself this, is it possible he may be hiding some sort of injury? It sure would explain a lot. Santana has denied past rumors about anything being wrong with him. I hope that is not the case but considering the year we have been having I would not be surprised.
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Nice piece.
that’s what she said
I honestly think
a) the league adjusted to him
b) he has a nagging injury
Santana is still santana and will give you a shot to win(except one start) but his numbers have not really been santana like
B
Lets elaborate a little more with NL placement:
12th in ERA
8th in IP
20th in Hits Allowed
37 in Runs Allowed
43rd in ER Allowed
7th in K’s
1st in Wins
17th in Losses
He’s having a fine season just not the highest paid pitcher type of season. But I think this is the last person that needs to be put under the microscope for a team that has been completely demolished.
Yeah, but as a guy who is signed for big buck and longterm, it’s our right to be concerned. I am guessing injury.
Hmmm, Rubin just brought up the idea of Parnell taking Niese next start. Saying Jerry said that he could start after being stretched out today with Figgy and Redding to piggy back.
Funny, I heard Omar said he was considering Rubin for Niese’s role.
I actually said this way back when he had that first bout of not very good baseball. Santana could’ve used an extra day here and there to help rest lingering aches and pains that are probably mostly natural for pitchers. (There was a perfect spot to bring up Niese for one start that would’ve been excellent to get that rest) I feel like this is a failing of the Mets management to properly analyze when and how Santana should be used. Remember, the Mets asked Charlie Manuel not to use him in the All-Star game, for basically this reason.
He seems to be pitching to the game lately, when it _is_ low scoring, he buckles down and pitches well, but when the Mets start tacking on runs maybe he’s shying away from pitches that hurt a little more or get outs in a different way. I didn’t get to watch last night, but it seems like the Mets might’ve been better served pulling him after 7. This is a failing of Manuel, and many managers, a lot. They’ll pull a guy after 100 pitches even after a 1-2-3 12 pitch inning, but if he’s only thrown 85 through 6 and just gave up 3 runs they’ll keep him in. Generally you _always_ keep in a guy like Santana, but it’s on Manuel and Warthen to evaulate if he’s actually running out of steam, if he’s actually tiring or struggling, or if he’ll be able to go back out and mow them down (better than the reliever you’d bring in).
I also wonder if this is yet another failing of Dan Warthen, who I definitely blame for Pelfrey’s inconsistency. Is he not providing the game plan that a good pitching coach should? Is he not able to evaulate, in game, when batters make adjustments or where a pitcher gets off-stride and correct them? To me, it always seems like Warthen goes out there one batter too late to talk to the pitcher.
I actually like this idea. With the team going nowhere this season, you might as well see if Parnell is a viable option as a starter. Personally, I think he’s better suited to the bullpen as he doesn’t have the variety of pitches to go through a lineup two or three times, but I wouldn’t mind them trying it. One of the few things I was looking forward to these last two months was seeing how Niese develops. It’s really a shame if he’s out for any period of time, but that’s just par for the course during what has been a truly horrendous season.
I tend to think that Parnell may be effective for multiple innings in garbage time but I will be surprised to see him make any quality starts given the number of runners he lets on base and, as you say, the second and third looks at the same pitch.
I agree Wanny, I don’t think he’ll be effective as a starter, but it doesn’t matter anymore this season. Let’s hope we can finish in the bottom ten to receive a protected pick.
I don’t really see the Mets signing a Type A free agent this offseason unless Boston decides to let Jason Bay go (as I read today was a possibility) or TB lets Crawford walk free (even less likely).
The guy the Mets would take with the 10th pick is the same guy they would take with the 23rd pick if the top players are going to ask for over-slot money.
You have to hope it is a nagging injury and not the beginning of a downward trend.
As long as he’s healthy, I think you’ll see Santana continue to be productive for many years to come. Even with diminishing stuff, I can see him posting 15 wins a year just because he’s a smart pitcher and seems to make adjustments even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. I’m just hoping he’s being truthful when he says he’s not hurting. If he even has a nagging injury, he might as well shut it down a bit because this year has long been a lost cause.
I think it could be both an injury and a downward trend. Santana has shown over the last couple of years a major drop in his peripheral stats, most notably K/9. He’s still a fine pitcher and will certainly be an ace for a year+ more, but he’s certainly beginning to show signs of becoming a #2, as all aces do at some point.
I agree and think the Mets recognize that. I also think they’ve tried to limit his innings as a result.
I wonder if trading Castro away had any effect. Otherwise, I’d think he’s just mentally tired after this free-fall of a season.
Castro did catch a perfect game LOL.
I agree with being mentally tired and he probably feels like he is waking through a mine field with all these injuries. All pitchers are tired and in pain at this point in the year and if it wasn’t for him the mets would probably be another 5 games back in the loss column.
Speaking of Castro.
.150 .277 .300 .577
Some really good points being made here.
I’m not sure about you all but I didn’t hear about his torn miniscus (apparently torn in Sept) until the end of the season.
So…does he have some nagging type injury he’s playing through? That would be just like him because if nothing else, he’s a very serious competitor.