Player to Consider: Paul Konerko
Posted by trs86 on 10:21am, Tuesday October 20th 2009
I know it seems like Paul Konerko is 128 years old but Chicago’s longtime 1st baseman just turned 33 this season. After struggling through 2008, Konerko rebounded to an OPS of .842 and 28 HR. He currently has one year left on on his contract at 12M. The Whitesox have a few holes themselves in CF and 2B. Before I get the normal responses here lets think through this. Off the top of my head, would the Whitesox take Castillo and Pagan in a deal for Konerko? This fills 2 spots for them and while it does create a hole at 1B they could fill that by resigning Kotsay who did very well for them in 2009. For the Whitesox it clears 6M from their 2009 salary that is bloated after adding Peavy and Rios. That 6M could be used for other needs. From the Mets perspective it gives them a true 1B and middle of the lineup hitter at a total cost of 6M. 2B could be filled by Lopez or Hudson and LF by a reclamation project such as Ankiel. This would allow the Mets a little more money to spend on pitching as well.
Thoughts?
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So the lineup would look something like this
Reyes, Hudson/Lopez, Wright, Beltran, Konerko, Frenchy, Ankiel, Santos.
Pretty balanced.
Not a shabby option. Did Konerko play 1B all the time or did he split time as DH?
What amount of the budget will the 2B/OF fill in’s do you think it will cost? Maybe that also allows the Mets to exercise Putz option (which I’m in favor of). Gives the bullpen an option if Frankie ever goes down and also is a nice trade bait as well.
No desire as you know for Putz’s 8M dollar option to be picked up. You could however try and sign him on a much cheaper contract.
I would think that Lopez would cost around 4-5M and Ankiel maybe 2-3M excluding incentives.
If the Mets do not offer Putz arbitration, I do not think they can sign him until May.
Though I suppose they could sign him to a new contract before the arb deadline?
Yeah, didn’t they do that with Glavine or something?
Anyway, you turn down the option and immediately offer him an incentive contract that could net him around 5M?
Would guess that if he would accept that deal if it had a vesting option for a second year.
And I think the Mets should explore such a possibility.
Or could a team like TB offer him something similar to have a chance to close?
I’m sure there will no shortage of offers like that for him if the Mets don’t offer him arbitration.
Teams without closers would be crazy not to take a chance on him with an incentive deal.
Agreed, seems like a perfect move for TB.
To answer your first question NJ, Konerko played 17 games as DH and 134 as 1B.
That makes Konerko a more attactive option then.
Not a bad idea. I wonder though if the Mets will need a LHB somewhere.
You got 3 Switch Hitters in Reyes, Castillo and Beltran, then 2 Right Handed Batters in Wright and Frenchy.
So I’d imagine if you want a balanced lineup you’d want 2 of the 3 remaining positions to be Left Handed Batters.
Who’d you prefer Konerko or Delgado?
That’s a good question: Delgado’s a better hitter, but he’s breaking down and who knows what his health will even be come ST.
If Konerko came by way of Pagan/Castillo, we’d immediately be downgrading our 4th OF slot (Pagan’s a dumbass, but he’s a productive dumbass).
I would not worry about our 4th OF slot. Sullivan or Reed can provide enough to start the year as a 4th OF.
I wasn’t really worrying, I was just stating. I’d do this deal over resigning Delgado, no question. It would be nice to allow Murphy some time to work in AAA and maybe solidify himself at a defensive position so we he can be a better trade chip. Or let him get to where he can play multiple positions adequately enough to be a super-sub kinda player.
I completely agree on Murphy. Let him play every position possible in AAA for about 50 games and see how many of him he can comfortably play. If we are sure he is not the 1B of the future it’s either trade him or develop him into something useful.
I’ve proven to myself and anyone who reads TRDMB that I am no good at valuation of trade chips so I’ll stay out of the who would be appropriate compensation for Konerko part of it.
As far as adding Konerko to the Mets, it makes sense in the context that the team needs more power, has no sure answer for an everyday productive 1B in 2010, and has Ike Davis making a strong case that he’ll be ready in 2011. Konerko’s 1 year remaining makes him a perfect bridge to the cheap, young 1B the following year. If Davis suffers some catastrophic injury or simply proves not to be a good hitter, Konerko is already in the fold to re-sign. I like the idea of his acquisition.
Agreed about Davis. It does make Murphy either a utility guy or expendable.
I like the idea of Konerko for the Mets. But I’m not really sure if ChiSox would prefer to pay Castillo $12m over two years or Konerko the $12m for one.
I expect they’ll want to try to compete in a questionable division, especially with Peavy in the fold along with Danks atop their rotation. So I suspect Konerko would only be dealt if it made the team better during Peavy’s tenure. I’m not so sure this one does — especially if ChiSox ultimately plan to move either of Beckham or Alexei Ramirez to 2B as they have reportedly discussed.
Who do they put at SS then? I have heard reports that they are strapped for cash so while it does not lessen the 2 year blow, it does for next year. It also depends on if they can get Dye or Thome to come back as a DH.
One of Beckham or Ramirez would play SS and the other might play 2B.
Keeping Beckham at 3B is another option for now but probably not the best one for his long-term growth/value and because I don’t think he’s projected to hit like a corner infielder in the long run.
Not sure if Josh Fields gets another shot at 3B and I don’t think Viciedo is ready yet for 3B so it is possible Beckham remains at 3B. However, Beckham is probably a better SS than Ramirez, who is the one who would most benefit from playing 2B.
That’s a lot of uncertainty in the IF. I guess you could say the same about switching from Konerko to Kotsay. However, Castillo does provide OBP that they desperately need.
It just happens that MLBTR has a White Sox analysis up today. They have Alexi or Beckman at SS, and some guy named Getz penciled in for 2B.
Yeah, that’s based on who is currently returning.
not a bad idea. And if they can flip castillo for konerko (as the 2 expensive parts), it doesn’t really hurt the budget much.
I don’t really want Hudson though, especially not on a LT deal. I actually would prefer Lpez, if Mill. doesn’t exercise his option. If they end up paying hudson more than Castillo, then it does hurt, but who knows how much cheaper Lopez will be. And of course, there are other options.
If you really want to go for it, do this deal and say you get lopez for 4mill. That eats up 10 of the ~30. Then, look for another 1 year guy for LF. Sign a garland type/level SP, and look to make the one “big” trade for another Sp at a more manageable salary.
or go cheap in LF (carter/evans/whatever other young guys you can find to try out), and pour the 20 into pitching.
Now, much better would be to trade castillo and sullivan, and hang onto pagan!
Pagan would be essential to the trade as I would hope that the Whitesox see him as an answer for CF and leadoff.
And unless I missed something, Lopez is a FA no matter what.
yeah, looks like you are correct. For some reason (must have been confusing him with someone else, or there was earlier mis info) I though Mill. had an option or could offer him arbitration this year.
They can offer him arbitration. He just does not have to accept it.
I’m willing to bet Angel Pagan played well over his own head this year (and clearly out of his mind at times). His slugging numbers this season crush anything he did in his entire minor league career.
2009: .306 .350 .487
Career MiLB: .281 .340 .375
Sure, it’s not impossible for him to have gotten better, stronger, etc. It’s just hard for me to believe that someone with so few baseball instincts could progress so suddenly and rapidly.
Or the fact that he, like some in the past, is just a great athlete that is able to produce just based on that alone. Based on reports we got, didn’t they say he was at the top of about every athletic test?
He wasn’t a great athlete before?
It also appears that he may be the classic “power develops late” guy. Around 2005 was when he started to see an increase in HR totals at age 23. 2006 he was limited to only about 80 games in the majors and minors combined and appears to have been injured. 2007 he showed a SLG of around .440 in the majors over 160 PA. 2008 his SLG was way down but he was again fighting injury. Who knows what 2009 will hold. Would he get better with a full time gig somewhere or more exposed?
IMO, Pagan hasn’t had a chance to play a full season w/o injuries. Seems like he play great - gets injured - plays great - gets injured.
I think if he can continue to stay healthy and get stronger, he can be a cross between Vicky and Werth.
I wouldn’t give up on him, but if there’s a trade that significantly improves the team then you gotta do it.
quite possible. Also a reason to keep him around vs. reed or sullivan.
Those 2 are perfectly adequate (or close to) as a spare OF for the bench. But no way do they seem to have the potential to step in as a viable starter.
Pagan at least has shown enough production (in spurts, around his injuries, none of which seem chronic) and talent so you at least can envision him being a useful starter.
Werth has more traditional power, but not a bad comparision, of a guy that never put it together, had some lost injury years, and finally got a chance to play at a relatively advanced age and made the best of it.
ANother comp? What about Eric Byrnes? He was what, 31 when he broke out for a couple of big years?
I would trade Pagan if they were getting a really good player back, but otherwise, I keep him.
Heck with it, sign Delgado if he will do a 1 year deal with incentives, find another better than average bat to add in LF, keep pagan and murphy for the bench, get a vet catcher to plug the gap, and spend the money on pitching, while keep in gas many prospects as possible.
That’s not a bad plan. Problem is, as we know, after Holliday and Bay the OF market takes a steep decline.
I’m hoping Delgado plays in the Caribbean this winter. That way we can see whether he’s still got it.
Holliday @ $18M
Delgado @ $4M with incentives
So we’re left with $8-$10M to get a #2SP.
That means no C, RP or MI.
Don’t need Holliday AND Delgado when we HAVE to have mid-rotation starter.
Also, if Delgado proves himself would he not get better money else where?
IMO the DH/1B market is flooded this year. Not much on top, but very deep afterwards. And by prove himself, I mean not show any signs of lagging injuries.
I think the Chisox have lots of young cheap options for their IF with Getz, Ramirez, Beckham, Nix, Fields & Lillibridge already in house plus whatever they might have in the upper minors that they probably have no need for Castillo.
Here is what their beat writer says about their IF for 2010:
“There have been suggestions that Ramirez could move to center, with Gordon Beckham switching to shortstop, primarily because of Ramirez’s great athleticism. But I see Ramirez staying put, and the same goes for the entire infield from third to first. Look for Ramirez to have another consistent year in the .280, 20 home runs, 70 RBIs range, and if his past six months defensively mean anything, he has found a rhythm in the field.”
The same writer also says “A few scouts I talked to recently said Viciedo could benefit from another year in the Minors. But I believe Viciedo will get a serious look at in Spring Training, as a possible designated hitter candidate, after getting a first look during the current Arizona Fall League. He primarily played third last year for Double-A Birmingham, so the White Sox need to find him a true position with Beckham set at the hot corner.”
Here’s the problem with that. They would still need to fill 2 IF slots. If Beckham switches to SS and Ramirez to CF, who plays 2B and 3B? Gets will be 26 and had an OPS of .670. Fields and Nix will both be 27 and had OPS of .716 and .648.
All this being said, Ozzie can’t like the fact that the Whitesox were TERRIBLE in the OBP department. Their top OBP guy was Thome at .372 and he may not be coming back. After Thome it dips to Posednick at an amazing .353. Their team OBP was a pittiful .329.
Ozzie loves Getz’s defense.
Fields had a very promising season in 2007 (and a stellar minor league career) before injuries caused himi to miss 2008. I don’t know if they think his injuries had an effect on his ability to bounce back in 2009 or what it means for 2010.
Yeah, but that OBP? Can he stand that? Getz could be a great defensive replacement.
I know I couldn’t! Like I said, Ozzie is a crazy man!
In Getz’s defense, he was a rookie and during his last two minor league seasons he had .382 and .366 OBPs.
I personally couldn’t pick the guy out of a police lineup. But perhaps they think he’s better than he was this season.
Maybe, just a thought. Considering they don’t have a leadoff hitter or a true CF I just thought Castillo and Pagan would be of interest to them.
It’s a reasonable idea. And we can pick apart any trade offer. Hell, it’s hard to believe the ones that are actually completed.
Yeah, maybe they just get Pagan?
All those guys are younger than Pagan and way younger than Castillo, so I would have to guess if one is looking for players to possibly improve through coaching and experience any and all of those current White Sox are more likely to do so than either of the guys we might send to them in this hypothetical deal.
Getz’ positives are that he improved in the 2nd half (OBP .314-.340), he was successful on 25 of 27 SB attempts and at age 24 in his 1st full season of AAA he posted a .302/.366/.448/.814 line.
But were we not saying that Chicago wants to compete NEXT year? Could they in turn be a better team with Pagan, Castillo and who ever they get for that 6M?
Maybe, maybe not. I guess it depends on how they’re impacted by the loss of Konerko.
Castillo could get on base all day for them but who is driving him in? He is no longer so mobile that he’s going to be scoring a lot without someone getting some XBH behind him. Will they be able to make up for the loss of Konerko with that $6 mil, and if so why don’t the Mets just get whoever that guy is?
Stickguy will vomit a little in his mouth but I actually believe Castillo fits in better at the 2 spot in a healthy Met lineup than he does in a Chisox lineup sans Konerko.
I expect Castillo to be here. I also expect him to decline from his 2009 numbers, and not regain any of the lost range.
and since his 1 tool (on either side of the ball) is OBP, assuming he can keep that up, he should be hitting lead of. Reyes can hit behind him.
If the Mets brought in a guy who had 20 steals last year and 360+ for his career would you say that SB was not one of his tools? Or what about a guy who is 33 years old and should break 2,000 hits during next season?
Just like yesterday, I am confused on this one.
This past weekend, at his blog for the New York Post, Joel Sherman suggested the Mets look at acquiring Jeremy Guthrie, Gil Meche and Ervin Santana, as buy-low candidates.
Meche I can see. But how exactly are we supposed to get Guthrie or Santana? One would think that if they were even available they would cost as much as Halladay in a trade.
I am confused why you read Joel Sherman!
Those two young and relatively inexpensive pitchers will most likely be given chances to rebound right where they are. Why would they be traded off bad seasons with decreased trade values?
LOL, I did not. It has been on two other blogs the last 2 days.
santana could get pricy, but how much could the O’s actually expect to get back for guthrie? If he can get that haul, the Mets should be able to move pelfrey or maine for just as big a haul.
I am sure the Mets could get a very nice haul for Pelfrey if they so inclined. Maine’s injuries would limit that.
Santana is at least decently expensive. Guthrie is still cheap.
I think the Mets need to make 2 decisions on Murphy AND Pagan. Are they stop gaps, bench players, or solutions. I lump both of them together as they appear to be team considerations for the spots they are in if the other is filled with a true hitter.
I think Pagan gets a bad rap. I think he made many of the same mistakes Murphy did and Murphy gets a pass for it. Yes Pagan has had more time to get over these mistakes, but he has also had a very unstable career to this point from being traded and injured. Perhaps, he like Murphy can develop baseball instinct. I do believe Pagan has more natural talent than Murphy.
I don’t know if I would use the phrase “natural talent” but if you allow me to substitute “athleticism” I’ll agree.
The big difference for me is, Pagan is currently 28 and has been playing professional baseball since 2000. Murphy is currently 24 and has been playing professional baseball since 2006. That is precisely why I am willing to cut Murphy some slack that I just won’t give to Pagan.
How much difference is there in college and professional as far as the minors are concerned? If it is a huge difference then should we just never sign a college kid?
Also, do Pagan’s injuries not play a role?
Pagan has had 829 MLB PA, Murphy 707. True Pagan has many more MILB PA than Murphy but many of those came when Pagan could have been in HS/College. Out of 2813 MILB PA for Pagan, 2025 came while he was ages 18-22.
same can be said for Santos
IDK, this situation makes me think of the Angels. They had Morales in AAA, because he was blocked by Kotchman and then Tex. This year Morales is raking for them.
The Angels also had River as a spare OFer and he’s excelled as a starter this year.
I’m not saying that’ll happen with Murphy or Pagan, but rather that it’s about having depth.