Lackey or Harden and Wolf
Posted by trs86 on 9:21am, Friday October 30th 2009
As most of you guys know, I like Lackey a lot but I am scared off by the talk of 5 years 90Million+. I think especially the 5 years part is what bothers me the most. However, Lackey is a great pitcher and would compliment Santana nicely. After reading a few articles on MLBTR and other sources I got to thinking about Harden and Wolf. Both had very good seasons last year, however both are considered injury risk and based on reports will still only get 1-2 year deals or even a 1 year deal with an option. Price wise it is assumed that both can be had for under 10 million per season. Lets assume that means 9 million each, also lets assume that Lackey can get his 18 million a season. Would the Mets be better off with 1-2 years of Harden and Wolf for 18 million per season or 5 years of Lackey for 18 million a season? I am trying not to spin this at all so excuse me if it looks like I am leaning one way or another. I honestly don’t know what direction I would go in. The perhaps certainty of Lackey or the potential filled and short contracts of the injury concerned Harden and Wolf.
Johan, Lackey, Pelfrey, Perez, Maine/Niese and cast of many
or
Johan, Harden, Wolf, Pelfrey, Perez/Niese cast of many with Maine to the pen
Sphere: Related Content
Heres hoping Melvin comes w/Hale for
’10’s Coaching staff! The thought of Razor as Bench Coach really is an ugly one.
AGREED! Finally, right?
I am hoping that Melvin comes in with coaching staff in place for Manuel’s all but certain mid-season dismissal.
Only the Wilpons/Omar
move a guy b/c he did a piss-poor job as a base-coach and PROMOTE
him to Right-Hand-Man
to the Mgr..
Lets give them credit for not doing it YET. Or maybe not credit but at least time to see what happens. I agree if that is what they do then they might as well fire Jerry now because that situation is doomed.
Hmm, so before I close up shop for a while, vote analysis.
Looks like it is almost an even split between A) Two pitchers including Harden (28 votes) or B) Sign one of the two big name players Lackey (20 votes) or Holliday (8 votes).
From ESPN.com:
Braves oust top scout
1:08
PM ETAtlanta Braves Top Email The Atlanta Braves have fired Tom Battista amidst a number of changes to the club’s scouting department, ESPN Insider’s Keith Law has learned. Battista served as the club’s regional crosschecker and is responsible for the scouting and signing of right-hander Tommy Hanson. Earlier this month, GM Frank Wren replaced departed scouting director Roy Clark with special assignment scout and former Baltimore Orioles scouting director Tony DeMacio, who turned around and fired one of the most respected an successful scouts in the organization in Battista.
Battista has been instrumental in the Braves’ farm system remaining strong, and also signed right-hander Kris Medlen and first base prospect Freddie Freeman as well as Hanson, who could be named the National League Rookie of the Year next month.
DeMacio’s drafts in Baltimore were hit-and-mostly-miss, boasting Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Erik Bedard, but also including Chris Britton, Jim Johnson and Brandon Fahey twice.
Law has more on both Battista and DeMacio.
Keith Law
Battista a gem in his own right
“I can’t imagine Battista will be out of work for long. He’s a well-respected and well-liked scout whose track record of finding value in later rounds is extremely valuable in an era when teams are focusing more resources on the Rule 4 draft. I don’t understand why DeMacio would choose to start his second stint as a scouting director — he was Baltimore’s scouting director from 1999 to 2004, and produced just one average big leaguer (Nick Markakis) with 10 first-round picks) — by terminating a scout who has demonstrated his value so clearly.”
Interesting.
Omar’s number one target should be absolutely anyone having anything to do with scouting for the Marlins.
Wanny you may never see this but my final question is:
What is the point of debating any of us then? If we can’t debate based on what reports say the price will be then what is the point of the debate? To debate if Lackey is more healthy than Harden? Duh. Well that was fun. To debate that Lackey is a good pitcher: Yup. Well that was fun. Money and years aside would I rather have Lackey? Yup. Well that was fun. Point is based on what I said as the debate topic of 1-2 years for Harden at 18 total or 5 at 18M per with Lackey which one would you choose and why? If you don’t want to debate that topic based on those premises it’s pretty easy not to right? If you have a better idea of what they will get based on research then throw it in here and we can debate that too?
You can debate whatever you want.
And even though I think it is silly to assume these “reports” are true, I and others have pretty clearly stated that even at $18m per year, Lackey would represent a better value than Harden and Wolf. I’ve said it about 10 different times in this topic.
Like I said earlier, the only way the Mets can get frontline pitchers is to pay them, or over pay them as the case may be. Well, at least until they get a Tom Battista type to find Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen for them.
When the Mets bought Pedro Martinez they knew they were not getting 4 HOF years from him. They know Santana will not be a CY caliber pitcher at age 36 and the Yankees know the same thing about Sabathia. Yet, they’ll be paying these guys as if they are.
That’s the way it is. You want an ace pitcher for 2-3 years, you’ll have to pay him for 4-5. Has been that way since the beginning of free agency. (See Hunter, Catfish.)
I see no point in trying to sign inferior pitchers for shorter terms if they are not going to help you win either. At least Lackey gives you a chance to win during the term of his contract.
So now Harden is an inferior pitcher because of talent or injury? Is that injury risk the same signing him for 1 year as it is for signing Lackey for 5?
Anyway, I can’t say that signing Lackey for 5/90 (again you can change the price and we can debate that) is going to help the Mets any more than signing Harden and Wolf. Perhaps you can, I can’t nor can at THIS point half the people who voted. Looks pretty even to me. A)Lackey or Holliday B) Harden AND Wolf.
Yes, 107 IP of Harden (his career average) or 147 IP (his career high in the last 5 years) makes him inferior to Lackey who averages 200 or even the 170 or so he’s pitched the last two years. So too do his Ollie like 5 IP/G.
If you don’t grasp the facts that demonstrate Harden’s increased injury risk over Lackey’s then I can’t help you. But I would start with the fact that even the “injured” version of Lackey threw more innings than Harden has thrown since 2004.
And last, as I’ve said now 3 or 4 times, I don’t view the chances of Lackey getting hurt at some point in the purported 5 year term of his contract as an impediment. If you get three years of near ace quality from him, you’ve probably come out ahead. You don’t sign ace pitchers for one year. It doesn’t work that way.
So are you saying that Harden could not be an ace in 2010? Again your point is only based on injury and not on talent. To ME that injury risk is lessened by the 1 year contract. Just like you assume that Lackey will get injured during his contract or that it won’t be an issue, I assume that if Harden at 10M gets injured we lost 10M.
Forget it.
You’re changing the argument every time you hit the keyboard.
Harden has all the talent in the world. Unfortunately no one ever gets to see it.
Meanwhile, Lackey, when injured as you speculate he is, gives you much more than Harden has at his best.
And if Lackey gets hurt this year or in year 4 or 5, how does that mean you’ve lost $90M? He can’t come back?
If Lackey gets injured in year one how does he help us more than one year of Harden?
Are you opposed to bringing in Matt Holliday for 5 years and big money? If he gets hurt the Mets can lose a lot more than if they just gave LF to Angel Pagan for the league minimum.
that’s true. There is no difference at all between a 31 YO SP that has had arm issues the last 2 years, and a 30 YO OF that has never been hurt.
I forgot that. Thanks for reminding me.
Why did Matt Holliday only play 139 games in 2008?
Why did he suck so bad for a half a season this year?
5 years is a long time.
“Arm issues” is a bit of a stretch for a guy who had some tightness in his forearm (Johan Santana said he has this every season) and a triceps injury and who has not missed a start once he began the season and consistently pitched 6+ innings of strong baseball.
the 6 weeks he missed at the beginning of the season dont count? Maybe the mets could not sount september and go to the playoffs every year.
And Johan had some stiffness in ST , and didnt have to miss time with it.
If you honestly think Lackey is as good a bet to stay healthy and productive for 5 years as Holliday is, then more power to you.
5 years IMO is too long a deal for anyone, unless it is an outlier like A Rod at age 26/27.
Well, TRS says Tim Dierkes says Holliday will want at least 5 years so I guess we’ll just have to sign second rate players in fear of injuries that may or may not come.
It’s a good thing our farm system produces so many top level players.
Why do you have to sound like an asshole when you debate?
Is there any need in continuing to point out that you don’t like my predictions because you think for some reason the only thing I read is MLBTR without ever clicking on a link there or anywhere else?
Could you not have said, based on MLBTR reports Holliday is seeking 5 years? I guess that would not have given you a chance to get a cheap shot in.
When you stop changing the point of every discussion and using rank speculation to effectuate the change, I’ll stop calling you out.
Until then, you should have thicker skin as an author of the content on this page and as someone who likes to lead the direction of the discussions.
When you stop changing the point of every discussion and using rank speculation to effectuate the change, I’ll stop calling you out.
Can you explain how I am “using rank speculation to effectuate the change”?
Or can you tell me where I have changed the point of every discussion? Seems like we have stayed on topic very well.
Should the Mets sign Lackey for 5 years 18M or Harden Wolf for 1 year 18M.
In the last hour alone, you declared that Harden has been “babied” a bit to explain away his low innings output, seemingly to support the undeniable fact that he’s got arm troubles.
Moments before that you attempted to change the point of the discussion of Harden’s lack of durability with the following question: “So are you saying that Harden could not be an ace in 2010?”
We weren’t discussing his talent, we were dicussing his propensity for injury.
His talent is a red herring issue.
Or perhaps you were speculating that he would be healthy in 2010? Well, given his track record that would be nothing more than rank speculation.
Now that you’ve asked, I’ll point it out everytime you do it from now on. You can call me an asshole; but you asked for it.
Do they teach analogies in your school? They are not the same as red herrings.
Yes, they do. In fact I was using something similar in the simile I used to describe what you sounded like when you debate.
Yes I am opposed to bringing in Holliday for 5 years and big money when we have so many holes.
And these points you’ve labled as not worth discussing, i.e. who is better or who is healthier, are critical points to the analysis. If the only consideration is whether you’d rather spend $90m or $9m, I think any sane person will choose to spend less. But the more critical point is what you are getting for the money.
They are not relevant unless you can also put a price on them. It takes both. If Lackey cost uh, 30M and Harden 3M would it not make a difference? I never said they were not worth discussing but they don’t provide much of a debate by themselves just as you are saying the money it self does not either.
I still think you get more for your total money with Harden and Wolf over just Lackey IF they all appear to be healthy and pass their physicals. Of course I would not sign any of them if they failed, LOL.
Here’s where we differ. I don’t see any benefit to bringing in Harden for 140 or less innings next year (this is unfortunately the cold hard truth of his track record). do we need to pay him so that Jon Niese can pitch 100 IP in his place?
You’re afraid that at some point Lackey will get hurt during his contract. Well, you gotta be in it to win it. You don’t get that type quality pitcher on a one year deal.
Lackey is demonstrably more durable than Harden. Even at his “worst” he was pitching in dominating fashion in the postseason.
How is it for sure that he will only give 140 innings when the last 2 years that has not been the case. You can’t say that he will ONLY pitch 140 innings as some kind of fact anymore than I can say that Lackey WILL get injured to start the season as some kind of fact.
You are afraid that Harden will get injured during his one year contract. Well you gotta be in it to win it. You don’t get that type of pitcher for that price without injury concerns.
Harden and Lackey are very comparable ability wise, they are not durability wise. Thus the price and years again become relevant.
Let’s see since 2004 he’s best IP totals are 141 and 148 IP. Mixed in there are two seasons of under 50 IP.
Last season he averaged about 5 IP/G, certainly indicating that he was not feeling all that great, or was not physically capable of pitching a full load.
When someone has never done something it’s awfully hard to bet they will suddenly do it.
That’s how.
He pitched 148 IP and 141 IP the last two seasons.
That sounds a lot like 140 IP.
He has been babied a little for sure. But we have no idea if he would not be able to pitch more next year and he is for SURE an injury concern.
You are also ignoring the fact that in 2008 in those 140 innings he had an ERA of 2.07 and a SO/9 of 11.
More speculation. Great.
So he was really capable of pitching more but the Cubs had a better chance of winning with their middle relievers.
And if he was merely being “babied” I would suspect there’s a good reason for that.
Lastly, he also has high pitch counts because he walks a a guy almost every two innings.
No thanks.
Not a lot of difference in their WHIP this season, of course Harden’s was much better last year than it was this year.
Yes, great. Not remotely the point.
It matters because they are putting about the same amount of runners on base each inning. One walks more and one is more hittable.
Actually the point was that Lackey pitches more innings than Harden.
Walks, hits, whatever. Harden pitches 5 IP/G and no more than 148 IP/season in the last 5 years.
5.667 for the last 2 years there buddy.. LOL.
over their careers, harden has proven to be “better” and lackey has proven to be “healthier”
Harden though is 3-4 years younger, and over the last 2 season, has actually been healthier too!
and with any long term deal, it has to be what you are getting for all the money in the deal, not just the first 1-2 years.
Unless, of course, you have an unlimited budget to just eat all your mistakes.
Exactly how has Harden been healthier the last two years?
He has thrown 50 fewer innings the last two seasons and has averaged about 5 IP/start.
And how has he been better? Or more to the point of this discussion, how has he been more valuable? Harden might be dominant when he’s on the mound. But he’s never there. Isn’t there value to a guy who can give you more solid innings?
Harden’s overall numbers were mostly down this year, even with his amazingly healthy 141 innings pitched.
How can people debate bringing him in after last year’s injuries?
well, Harden is a 27 YO that has been considered ace-like in the past if he could stay on the mound. The others are proven junk at least the ones that are actual former ML plyers!)
And bad nes, I think Bobby Bo is already on the payroll in 2010 (eating up 2mill of the budget!)
Rich Harden has never pitched enough innings to be considered an ace.
And the fact that he’s so injured as a young player hardly bodes well for him as he gets older.
I think his injury history overrides any perceived benefits from his age.
Mark Prior is only 29. Sign him too.
Interesting point, Kingman. His healthiest recent season is also his worst.
Yeah, I mean the guy could have been great, but even when he pitched a lot last year, and Kd a lot of guys, he was hit a lot harder than in the past, especially HR-wise.
His recent season saw his WHIP skyrocket in the first half for sure as did his HR/9 those are valid points. But he did finish strong for the 2nd half compared to the first half. Going from a BA of .271 to an amazing .189 and half as many HR.
Interesting piece on Toby’s Mets minors blog about where the Mets stand in regards to getting value out of the draft, and FA signings. Lets just say, not a pretty report.
TRS, I think you should eliminate all posts that are any kind of “what should the Mets do in the off season” question. It is apparantly a pointless exerciese, other than to drive up your hits.
Well, debating the future is one thing, suggesting we bring in Gary Matthews, maybe the very worst and overpaid everyday player in the game, is quite another.
Kingman, reread the post. Never said we should do it.
Hey it works for Cerrone.
Sure does, when you are after quantity and not even remotely concerned with quality….
Not sure if that’s a shot at us or not?
pandering to the masses has long been a successful business model.
Hmm…tough one. I’d take Harden and Wolf if for no other reason than it slides Pelf and Ollie further down in the rotation.
Yeah, until Harden is on the 60 day DL by mid-May, then we are right back where we were this year. Santana and a bunch of injured, unproven, unreliable guys.
then sign them both. Lackey doesn’t even start his season until mid-may anyway.
LOL.
One thing to keep in mind with the Mets and FAs this off season. If they go in big on a couple of expensive guys (even one 18ish guy), then don’t expect anything interesting next off season. The team will pretty much be locked in.
Because, after 2010, they don’t have any big $ contracts coming off the books (unless in the unlikely scenerio that they decline Reyes option, and that ain’t happening).
So unless they decide to blow up the core and trade the big guns, payroll will be pretty much already locked up.
At least if they sign/trade for some 1 year contracts, they will have some flexibility next year (unless, of course, they decide to pump an extra 20mill into the budget!)
I know it makes me a heretic to some posters, but while I don’t want them to punt 2010, I am also more interested in building a sustained winning team.
Are the Mets better in 2011 without Lackey?
yes. Of course they are.
they are?
and if you bothered to read the post, I said you better be sure you lkie the team, because they arent likely to be in on any name FAs after 2010. So no Halladay, no Lee, or whoever else hits the market.
If you solve the problem now, why will you need to get those guys?
Besides won’t Halladay be older and more expensive?
Older, yeah obviously. More expensive? Who knows? I have heard no reports from ANYONE yet.
lol. I’ll give you credit for that one.
The more I see all these debates, look at the stats, and evaluate this offseason, 1 thing becomes clear. I don’t think I want any of these guys! Lackey is good, but is he worth giving up an arm and a leg? He’s not an ace! Harden is not what this team needs unless he wants a 1 year deal, which won’t happen. Holliday is a good player, but I’m not huge on him, especially committing all that money. I just don’t think he’s worth superstar money, but others might disagree. This FA class is terrible, and it couldn’t come at a worse time. I think our answer should come from the trade market. Very broad statement, but I don’t see any worthy deals coming out of this FA class. I am intrigued by Ben Sheets however, I feel like if we can get him to a cheap 1 year deal with a second year option based on playing time, then why the heck not try to steal him for the 2010 season.
I honestly think Harden will end up with a 1 year with an option but yeah if he gets more than that it would be too risky. As I have mentioned before I would rather steal Halladay but who knows if that is even possible.
cutting through the earlier flack, the real question with harden is what contract he get.
a smoltz like deal (1 year guarantee, say 3-4 mill base and up to 5 in incentives for IP or GS), makes him a real intriquing gamble.
1 year at the speculated 9m base? harder to justify, unless they really have excess budget to burn and fall in love.
2 or more years guaranteed? Don’t want to go there.
I think it will be 1 year at least and 8-10M. He has been healthy enough the last 2 years for someone to take that type of low risk deal.
like I say, what the hell, it’s only money. And it isn’t my money!
better off if the Mets fill all their other holes, then if he is still there, try to snag him as the cherry on top. But not as the first and big move.
Yes, many post have been MCed. I tried to do everyone justice in the deletion as many of us, including myself, were acting like Yankee and Phillies fans. BOOOO!
Wow, what I must’ve missed.
It’s a relief to know that the comment thread can be all belligerent and thumb sucking whether I’m here or not.
I was here most of the day (what happens when you start debating wanny) and Im not even sure what was deleted, or if I was in it!
Only the Shadow (TRS) knows!
LOL. I was trained by the best of MCers.
Yeah, Wanny and I are WAY too much alike.
Screw the offense unless there is a serious bargain. Give me Harden and Lackey. Santana/Lackey/Harden/Pelfrey/Maine Keep Ollie in AAA until someone gets hurt or put Maine in the pen.
LOL - nice thought but they can’t keep Ollie in AAA. He’s tenured.
Right now, unless we get some GM dumb enough to pick up Ollie’s contract or he’s injured, we’re stuck with him in the rotation.
The way I see it, the only two we’re sure of right now is Johan and Ollie.
All the rest could and may be used in a trade if the price is right and it’s worth it. Truthfully, I don’t see Pelfry or Maine going anywhere during the off season, but you really never know.
And wow - Johan and Ollie….talk about opposite ends of the spectrum….
thats fine. let ollie be the #5 in this situation. I think maine would be very good in the pen. Adding Lackey and Harden would not only fix our rotation, but it would strengthen our pen as well.
Roto-Santana/Lackey/Harden/Pelfrey/Perez
Pen-Feliciano, Stokes, Parnell, Green, Maine, Putz, Frankie
The rest of the money can then be focused on positional players.
I wish they would, but if we get Lackey that is the only SP we will get and most likely the only one we could afford.
I agree its not the route we will go, but i wish it was. My feeling is Omar will sign a LFer and catcher and be done. I believe he thinks santana, maine, pelf,perez, niese, nieve, misch, parnell, figgy is enough to create a rotation. I hope i am wrong, but i dont have much faith in omar.
Nah, we will get a rotation guy. Right now I am seeing it being Marquis and a big name LF.
I will be very disappointed with that. I would rather have great pitching first and try to make a trade for offense with the excess.
Yeah, me too but…
I would rather just skip marquis and put the money elsewhere if possible.
But, the issue with jay’s rotation is too much uncertainty. If they get what you can project reasonably, assuming no big injuries, yeah they can get a servicable rotation out of that. Taking a gamble though, but it’s omar’s job.
so if they get a top line pitcher? great. If not, then might as well run with what you got instead of spending 10mill or so on a mediocre stiff like Marquis.
If you get an injury to the rotation you still have Maine and Niese who can start, or Nieve or Misch if they are still around.
While I agree, I am just assuming based on the report of the day and who knows if that is a ploy because they want Lackey or if it’s just plain bad reporting or finally if it’s actually true.
LOL, Jay I think he was referring to the worst nightmare rotation of keeping what we have.
TRS knows me too well at this point! Yes, I was commenting on the idea that Omar thinks they have enough to make a solid rotation out of.
Theoretically they do, with the big ifs of pelf rebounding to 2008+, maine back to his early 2007 form, and Perez not being completely hopeless.
Like I said, a stretch (leap of faith?) that would look way better with another solid, upper rotation guy on board!
but if not, you will probably have holliday and Benjie to watch!
depending on what you end up paying the pitchers, and what the “real” budget is, might not be enough left for more than a catcher .
Now, if you get lackey for 3/45, and harden for 1/6 + incentives (so say budget 9), that’s 24 and you have 4-8 left (from the speculated 28-32 available). toss say 2 mill at barajas, and you have 2-6, so pretty much tapped out.
And that would be fine with me. Then you would have prospects to deal for an upgrade to the offense if needed later on. Much easier to get a bat than great pitching.
Well, from what I could gather before I had to run off the other day, we don’t need a catcher and I apparently wasted a lot of time and energy suggesting that we might.
Uh, we NEED a catcher. LOL. It just does not have to be a good one. LOL.
I think there will be a good compliment guy off the scraps.
I agree with your whole comment.
I never suggested it had to be Johnny Bench. I sure thought that was heavily implied by my including a link to a list of AAA catchers.
I may not be happy in Sept 2010, but I will be plenty satisfied in March 2010 if the Mets bring in what you describe.
I am beginning to lean towards Barajas right now.
he is my flavor of the day too, if he can really be had for around 2mill
If not then he is REALLY not worth it.
We definately need a catcher, it would be best for Thole to get AAA time so when we do call him up he is ready to go rather than learning on the fly.
Agreed. I’d rather Thole prove to be so good in AAA that he forces the Mets to release/trade a catcher this summer than be so bad they’re forced to go out and get one.
Not much of a chance IN MY OPINION (in case Wanny is still around) of us getting either of those pitchers for that price. I don’t see Lackey being cheaper total or per year than Lowe. I don’t see Harden being cheaper than Garland was.
Our biggest hope in the Lackey deal is something like 4/64 but only 10 M for the first year and 18 for the others.
18mil per for Lackey, 8-10mil per for Harden plus incentives. 2-3mil on a catcher and call it a day.
Gotta have a bench and a setup guy.
But as I said you know if they get Lackey there is no way we are getting anyone else.
Maine or Putz for setup?
Don’t have Putz.
Maine, maybe.
Still have no bench or LF.
In my scenario I would be fine with Pagan in LF, or using prospects to trade for one rather than spending 15+mil on bay or holliday. I imagine the bench would be made up of Santos, Cora, Reed, maybe Evans and Ahern.
Yeah, not sure I am ready for a full-time Pagan and we would not have the money to trade for anyone but a prospect. But who the hell knows.
Regardless, I stand behind my thought that if we get Lackey we won’t be getting another pitcher. Just like if we get Holliday we won’t be getting another hitter.
I would let Pagan start in LF and Murphy at 1B…then if needed, use Niese plus other prospects to land a young player with up to 3 yrs on service time who will still be making minimal salary.
Don’t guess you want to name drop who that guy might be? LOL.
But seeing what I saw out of Pagan, I am not sure he can start on any team that hopes to win much of anything. Unless you think the mental mistakes will just fade away.
Obviously I believe with playing time Pagan will get better defensively/running bases. I also believe his offensive abilities are perfect for Citifield. He hit .306 with a .837ops. If he can put up those #s over an entire season, i would be fine with that out of my LFer.
And no, i have no idea who the mystery player would be, but I imagine we could offer a nice package of prospects to get someone. Teams always need pitching and if we can dangle a near ML ready guy in Niese packaged with other promising players I feel we could get something special.
Sample size. He has never put up close to those numbers at any point in his career. I hope it’s for real but…
Also, this is a guy who was ran off by Lou for bad fundamentals. It is no guarantee that time is going to cure his ills.
Jay I just can’t see Niese and our prospects bringing back a difference maker on offense that also would only cost 2-4 million or less.
I am banking on Pagan being like Werth. Not in the stats but rather being a late bloomer that never got the opportunity.
Werth had some very good seasons before becoming a star and was a star in the minor leagues as well putting up some very impressive years. I also don’t recall ever hearing the fact that he had a complete lack of fundamentals.
I would target a rebuilding team, and try to package something like Niese, Fmart, Marte, Tejeda….basically the only prospects i would hold are davis, holt, flores, mejia. Just pulling this out of my ass, but maybe someone like Adam Lind.
I hate to be the Wanny of the day but Lind is young, cheap and hit: .305.370 .562 .932 with 35 HR. A rebuilding team would not deal him for anything less than the top prospects in the league.
Now if you said Crawford, if he became available then that might work. However, then we would not have the cash to do it.
The reason i came up with lind is because the Blue Jays need to rebuild big time. I understand he is something like 26 or 27 by the time the season starts, but the Blue Jays are not going to compete right now and could use several high ceiling prospects with a few being close to ready in exchange for 1 player, albeit a good one. I’m not saying we can get Lind, but someone like him from a team in a similar situation. Overwhelm them with our high value prospects. I still believe FMart has a lot of value, and that Niese has a lot of value being almost ML ready. Add some other good prospects and it would be tough for a rebuilder to say no.
and you are right, i didnt say crawford because of his salary. Its tough, but I’m trying to find a player that fits the criteria of having 3 yrs or less of ML time while being on a team that needs to rebuild.
Wanny is actually good at that. Problem is you are not going to get anyone that has proven himself at all even for a year in the MLB. Otherwise the rebuilding team would most likely hold on to him.
Perhaps a guy like Uggla but he is not a LF. Cantu for 1B could make up some but both of those may be too expensive.
MF4D, I would be shocked if they traded pelfrey this year. I also think maine will be back (and will have a good year). But, maine in the pen? interesting, but I’m not sure it would work out, but nothing is permanent (unless you are heilmann). JM seems like too much of a routine guy to respond to the pen!
I actually think Maine could be good in the pen. But for right now he’s in the rotation. I think Omar will sign one of the FA pitchers AND a the 2010 version of Livan.
oh god, I hope not. The FA is fine, but pelf/maine/perez/neise/neive can cover for the livan role. At most, it better be a ST invite!
I said the 2010 version LOL. You know he can’t go into the season without looking for one scrap heap SP that might stick.
Maine has great stuff and when he is on, he is dominant. That said, I think we need 2 good SP and maine is the most likely(out of pelf, perez, maine) to succeed in the pen.
Given the time that Maine has missed recently, I’m intrigued by how he might respond physically to a switch to a short/late role in the pen.
Who knows. What we do know is one thing that hinders him in starting is the high pitch counts because of the multiple fly balls. Not sure what that would do to him in the pen either.
Yup. All I’m saying is I’m very open minded to the concept of the attempt, knowing all the while he could possibly end up less effective or more injured due to the transition.
True, I guess what has to be decided is what are the long range plans for Maine.
Obviously I have no insider knowledge or crystal ball, but I see Maine falling lower and lower on the organizational depth chart over the next few years, assuming he’s still in the organization.
big year for maine. He could struggle get hurt and disappear, he could become a stud set up/closer type, or he could have a huge break out year as a healthy SP.
none of the 3 would really surpise me.
Speaking of the organizational depth chart, I don’t know who is in charge of making it over at Mets.com, but here for fun is their Mets SP depth chart:
1-Santana
2-Figueroa
3-Pelfrey
4-Maine
5-Parnell
6-Misch
7-Redding
Hmmm, LOL. I guess Figgy had to take Perez’s spot on the roster. LOL.
Speaking of, would anybody be surprised if Redding came back? He is still under team control I think.
Yes he is still 1 year away from FA.
I would not be surprised if he were brought back.
He still has excellent career numbers v. the Phils.
If it were my choice, I’d try and get him in Buffalo on a minor league deal as injury insurance. I’m not clear on all the non-tender rules as to whether that’s possible or not.
Me either but does he still have options anyway?
Also, I could see him having some benefit as a long-relief built in spot starer. He could be cheaper than last year based on arbitration and injury right? 20%?
Redding definately did well over his final 8 games. 3-5 but a 2.98era. I wouldnt be happy, but it could be worse.
I was wondering about him before. If cheap, he is certainly worth bringing in for the “livan” role. Just as long as he comes cheaper than 2.5mill
He was 2.25 this year so we could offer 20% less I guess.
my guess is the long range plans for maine are SP. At minimum, he gets another year to see if he can do it with the new shoulder! and hopefully, 1 more pitch (or varient) to help as an out pitch.
as to the discussion about LF, if the go all out and get lackey and another pricey SP (marquis, harden, whoever it has to be), and assuming he goes for a top $$, then there certainly wont be much money left after getting their MI bench guy, Barajas, etc.
so, my idea from the other day (which was load up on pitching, and dont worry about the offense!) comes true, and they go with pagan/carter most likely, with frenchy and beltran + 1 more guy (sullivan? evans? someone else cheapish).
no need to annoint pagan. let them compete, and be willing to go with a rotation in at least LF, if not RF too.
evans could also be a cheap option to semi-platoon with murphy at 1B.
considering where they are today, johan/lackey/(wolf-garland-marquis)/pelfrey/perez rotation and maine/neive helping in the pen and neise in AAA could be solid, and plenty of depth.
castillo (damn, I hate typing his name)/reyes/wright/beltran/francour/LF du jour//murphybarajas with the spare LFs, a MI and santos on the bench? Not huge, but should score some runs. some pop at least all the way 2-8.
like I said earlier, if you aren’t comfortable with the line up, would you feel better plugging holliday (or bay) into LF, but replacing lackey from the rotation and putting Maine in his place?
Yeah, I can see the merit for sure but I am almost positive that if the Mets get Lackey there will be NO other pitchers and if the Mets get Holliday there will be no more hitters.
I’m not sure there will be any hitters though. Guess we shall see!
none of the 2nd tier FA SPs really excite me, so if they did get lackey and then went with the in house poo-poo platter (maine/pelf/ollie/neise/redding?/nieve I would be fine, if they took the 7+ mill savings and invested in the offense or pen.
If putz is not back, and maine is in the rotation, we definately need a good bullpen arm like soriano or gonzalez. To me its either 2 top starters and a catcher or 1 top starter, 1 top releiver, and a catcher. Either scenario will leave little money to do anything else.
I ask this as non-threateningly as possible, but why do you say that?
If for the sake of discussion we are operating with the 28-32 mil window and Lackey/Holliday take up 18 of that, there’s still 10-14 remaining.
I can see some semi-viable SP/LF winding up like the Wolfs and Abreus of last year fitting in financially, with 5-9 left for the 2 mil C and a set up guy.
The way I see it, if the Mets get Lackey there will be no LF, and if the Mets get Holliday there will be no SP, not if they get Lackey there will be no other pitcher and if they get Holliday there will be no other hitter.
In summary I see it more like Stick does, I think.
As I re-read that I’m not sure it makes any sense. I’m tired, I’m going to bed. Happy Halloween all!
Let me explain a little more. IF the Mets sign Lackey they will not go out and sign another pitcher because they won’t see the need, maybe a hitter but not another pitcher. IF the Mets sign Holliday they will not sign another hitter, maybe a lesser pitcher but not another hitter.
Does that make more sense? We are not getting 2 of any position.
last wild thought before bed.
maybe Omar will juke everyone out, and avoid the FA market entirely (not a bad idea, considering how weak it is) and try to do it through trades?
Maybe a salary dump like harang?
or the real wild idea, get ed wade drunk at the annual “atrocious GM summit” (hat tip to bill simmons) and get a package deal of Oswalt and Berkman. Scrap up the cash for barajas, and shuffle the left overs, and boom you are done.
I know, unlikely the astros do it, but it gets boring arguing holliday vs. lackey (with a little harden thrown in).
Feel free to dream up other blockbusters that will never happen. But if he is healthy for the last 3 years (IIRC) on his deal, johan and oswalt aint shabby. And berkman certainly helps the line up.
oh yeah, LF ends up being the combo platter.
Sonnanstine and Upton. Disaster but again it’s Omar.