The Real Dirty Mets Blog


Mets Need: Defense! (Updated)

Posted by CaseStreet on 11:00am, Friday November 13th 2009

This is my first installment of a three part series titled, “Mets Need” where I’ll be discussing the Mets needs and suggesting how to address those needs.

military_defenseFirst, the Mets need to develop a Department of Defense. What is defense? Defense is the action of preventing an opponent from scoring. In baseball, the team that allows the least runs wins the game. The teams that win the most games play meaningful October baseball and that’s what we’re all here for (that and the megan_foxMets Motivational Model).

So to Fred and Jeff Wilpon, Omar Minaya and the rest of the Mets Leadership, I say, “Mets Need Defense!”

***Updated with Catcher information***

For the full article, click on the More button on the right. See you after the jump.

“Great, how do the Mets do this?”  Simple. Hire Seattle Mariners Special Assistant to the G.M., Tony Blengino (or at least learn from him). Tony Blengino:

previously served as Milwaukee’s assistant director of amateur scouting under Zduriencik, and now holds the title of special assistant to the general manager, baseball operations. A chief financial officer and author of the book Future Stars, before joining organized baseball in 2003, Blengino will head Seattle’s newly created Department of Statistical Research.

“So what?” Well, thanks to Blengino and the Mariners front office, this is how the team improved from last year:

  • -1.1 UZR/150 to a league-smacking 9.2 UZR/150
  • -20.9 UZR to a 84.5 UZR (runs saved)
  • 4.73 ERA to a 3.87 ERA
  • 811 Runs Against to 692 Runs Against

To compare, let’s look at what the Mets did in the same span:

  • 4.4 UZR/150 to a league bottom -6.2 UZR/150
  • 27.1 UZR to -50 UZR
  • 4.07 ERA to a 4.46 ERA
  • 715 Runs Against to 757 Runs Against

“So how did he do it? ” He did it by focusing on defense and with the use of statistical analysis. In the Seattle Times, Geoff Baker reported how Blengino’s department played a key role in improving the team in the off-season.

endy_chavez_catchBesides (Franklin) Gutierrez, whose stats were researched just as the department was being formed, the numbers-crunching branch has played a key role in the acquisitions of both Endy Chavez and Ryan Langerhans.

Similarly, the new Rays management focused on defensive stats to go from worst to best in the division. Sports Illustrated writer Albert Chen explains how the Rays were able to do this:

Tampa’s improvement—from the worst team in defensive efficiency in 2006 and ‘07 to the best last year—was the result of the front office’s calculated effort, after the ‘07 season, to catch the ball better. They replaced the shortstop combo of Brendan Harris (-10.5 career UZR, meaning he cost his team nearly 11 runs) and Ben Zobrist (-7.5 career UZR) with Jason Bartlett (34.7 career UZR). They moved Akinori Iwamura from third to second (where his UZR was 1.3 runs higher) to accommodate the call-up of Evan Longoria (14.9 UZR), and they dumped Johnny Gomes (-16.9 career UZR) and Delmon Young (-18.1 career UZR) from the outfield. “People saw the drop in our pitchers’ ERAs, and [the pitchers] did a great job,” says Friedman, “but a lot of credit goes to the runs the defense saved. Based on our internal numbers, a lot of credit.”

bksevenincher-resized-600Am I blowing your mind yet or do you just feel like blowing it up? I’ll try to explain.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is a defensive metric that statisticians are now using to rate defenders. According to the fangraphs glossary, UZR is “The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.” You might have seen many of our fellow MLBTR contributors use the UZR stat. Fangraphs.com’s Dave Cameron suggests a large sample size is needed, “Realistically, you need about 2,000 to 3,000 innings to eliminate enough of the variance to make a good judgment call.”

So now that we know what UZR is, let’s figure out how the Mets compare to the best. These players are the Dream Team of fielding over the past 3 years:

  • 1B Albert Pujols 28.6 UZR
  • 2B Chase Utley 46.7 UZR
  • 3B Ryan Zimmerman 37.6 UZR
  • SS Omar Vizquel 30.4 UZR
  • LF Carl Crawford 35.9 UZR
  • CF Franklin Gutierrez 31.7 UZR
  • RF Randy Winn 32.1 UZR

And this is how the Mets compare:

  • 2B Luis Castillo (-13.4 UZR)
  • 3B David Wright (-2.1 UZR)
  • SS Jose Reyes (5.6 UZR)
  • CF Carlos Beltran (5.2 UZR)
  • RF Jeff Francouer (6.4 UZR)

Team Defense has to be a focus in 2010, especially considering the poor play that we saw in 2009. Watching the playoffs, one thing was apparent to me, the Phillies and Yankees (to a lesser extent) played good defense. I know they do many other things well, but it’s undeniable that the ability to catch balls and turn double plays enable pitchers to get out of trouble and prevent the opposition from scoring runs. Don’t be fooled by some who may argue that Left Field and First Base are not important positions defensively. Adam Dunn has a -49.3 UZR and Prince Fielder has a -16.7 UZR over the past 3 years. Although many teams put their worse fielders at these positions, the Mets should not. The goal of the Mets should be to be the best fielding team in baseball.

First, let’s start with Outfield and First Base. I’ve compiled a list of 2010 and 2011 Outfield and First Base Free Agents with a minimum of 1500 innings and a positive UZR for the past 3 seasons:

Outfield

  • Jayson Werth 40.5 UZR
  • Carl Crawford 35.4 UZR
  • Randy Winn 35.3 UZR
  • Matt Holliday 29.1 UZR
  • Austin Kearns 28.3 UZR
  • Andruw Jones 23.9 UZR
  • Coco Crisp 20.3 UZR
  • David DeJesus 20.2 UZR
  • Willie Harris 19.0 UZR
  • Eric Byrnes 16.0 UZR
  • Marlon Byrd 13.5 UZR
  • Mike Cameron 11.0 UZR
  • Emil Brown 10.8 UZR
  • Geoff Jenkins 8.0 UZR
  • Magglio Ordonez 7.0 UZR
  • Corey Patterson 2.3 UZR
  • Willy Taveras 1.4 UZR

First Base

  • Albert Pujols 28.6 UZR
  • Derrek Lee 8.5 UZR
  • Ross Gload 6.9 UZR
  • Lyle Overbay 6.2 UZR
  • Carlos Pena 1.3 UZR
  • Paul Konerko 0.5 UZR

Just to compare, let’s look at the Mets in-house options.

pagan2Outfield

  • Angel Pagan 9.0 UZR (1573 inn.)
  • Jeremy Reed 3.6 UZR (2320 inn.)
  • Cory Sullivan -13.9 UZR (2209 inn.)

First Base

  • Daniel Murphy 4.7 UZR (879 inn.)
  • Chris Carter is also an option but he doesn’t have any ML time at first base.
Daniel Murphy

This information isn’t perfect but it does give us a starting point. Obviously the Mets will not trade for Jayson Werth or Albert Pujols. But Carl Crawford is a trade candidate and Matt Holliday and Randy Winn are both free agents. There are also a bunch of interesting names like Harris, Byrd and Cameron (anyone else shocked to see drive-by Met, Emil Brown on the list?, who along with Carlos Beltran are the only players to lead the Royals in RBIs for three consecutive seasons. I digress.) On the First Base side, other than Gload, all of the players on the list will have to be acquired via trade. Players like Lee, Overbay and Pena have been mentioned once or twice on this blog. I’d try to trade for Crawford and Lee. Otherwise,  I like Winn, Cameron or Byrd and Murphy at First Base with Angel Pagan as the Forth Outfielder.

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

As much as I support Luis Castillo, when it comes to his defense, “NO LO PUEDO SUPORTAR!”. In the off chance that the Mets are able to trade Castillo this winter, here are some 2010 and 2011 Second Base Free Agents with a minimum of 1500 innings and a positive UZR for the past 3 seasons:

  • Mark Ellis 29.3 UZR
  • Placido Polanco 22.7 UZR
  • Kaz Matsui 8.1 UZR
  • Felipe Lopez 4.9 UZR
  • Jamey Carroll 4.7 UZR
  • Adam Kennedy 3.0 UZR

Felipe Lopez or Placido Polanco would be good additions to the infield. The Mets will not be able to fix every problem in one single swipe and obviously extraneous issues like playing through injuries effects the stats, which is the case with Carlos Beltran. Yet, we must demand that the Mets improve defensively, especially with such a large park where many balls will drop in for a hit without a good outfield. Which free agents or trade candidates do you want playing for the Mets or should Angel Pagan and Daniel Murphy be our starting Left Fielder and First Baseman? And if Luis Castillo is not with the Mets next year, who should be playing Second Base?

(Updated 11/13/09) In addition to Left Field, First Base and possibly Second Base, the Mets may need to acquire a Catcher to share duties with Omir Santos. There have been some reports that the Mets are interested in veterans Bengie Molina, Chris Snyder and Rod Barajas. I think we can agree that some of those guys would not be the way to improve defensively.

Rod Barajas and Ramon Castro

Rod Barajas and Ramon Castro

There are various ways that Catchers are analyzed defensively. Most agree that the ability to prevent stolen bases and blocking pitchers are the most important skills for a Catcher. After a quick research of the subject, I found some interesting articles at Driveline Mechanics, Beyond the Box Score, and Basement Dwellers. MLBTradeRumors has a list of free agent Catchers and a list of Catchers on the trade market. Below is a list I compiled of available “defensive” Catchers:

  • Henry Blanco
  • Rod Barajas
  • Brian Schneider
  • Ramon Hernandez
  • Ivan Rodriguez
  • Gregg Zaun
  • Ramon Castro
  • Bengie Molina (led league in caught stealing), (zero passed balls)
  • Jason Kendall (zero passed balls)

Assignment: Compile a list of available players that you want playing defense for the Mets and post your picks as a comment (Especially if you have never commented here. I want to hear from you.)

Stay tuned next week for the next installment of ”Mets Need”. And if you are on Facebook or Twitter, please become a fan or followThe Real Dirty Mets Blog. Let’s Go Mets!
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67 Responses to “Mets Need: Defense! (Updated)”

  1. prismo says:

    Very informative piece Case!

    UZR to me is much more of a guideline than something to bow down to though. I mean, look how much lower Beltran’s UZR is than Gutierrez, but we know that Beltran is a great fielding CF.

    • CaseStreet says:

      thanks Prismo.

      Like I said, Beltran’s #s were affected by his injuries this year, though it’s undeniable that he was unable to get to many balls that dropped in front of him this year. But like BA or any other stat, one bad or good season does effect your numbers but doesn’t necessarily mean that’s where you always will be. That’s why I did it over a 3 year span, to reduce the effect of bad or good years.

      Still, though, I think the list I presented shows players that are mostly known to be good defenders.

  2. trs86 says:

    This is great work and very informative. However UZR, like EVERY defensive rating I have ever found, it is very flawed.
    Example 1B for this season.
    To me there is no doubt that Texeria is the best defensive 1B in the MLB. So where does he rank? 16th out of 20 qualified 1B. Not only that, look who is ahead of him
    In order of least closest to him to “best” in the leauge.
    Todd I can’t move Helton, Overbay, LaRoche, Big Fielder, Howard, Branyan (REALLY?), Konerko, Cabrerra(GOT TO BE SH$TING ME).

    So while UZR is a good tool you have to also look at other things such as the ability to make the routine play and especially for a 1B his recieving ability.

    This is also the same system that puts David Wright as the WORST 3B in the MLB. Seriously, the WORST?

    • dirtysanchez says:

      I believe that title goes to his buddy in AZ imo lol

      I am not really good with sabe yet but im getting there. Bottom line i agree with case, defense has to be taken into account. When willie left, so did the mets defensive intellegence…

    • CaseStreet says:

      Thanks trs.

      I did a 3 year query and Tex was 9th on the list.

      As for Helton he gets a huge bump because he doesn’t commit errors but his range numbers aren’t bad either.

      As for Wright, this season he is last, but over the past 3 years he is higher on the list. Still, though, when you look at the list the guys on the top are known to be good defensively so I don’t think it is too flawed.

      You have every right to feel UZR is flawed, but as you can see from the articles I linked to, many baseball people more informed than you and I are using it as one tool when analyzing a player’s defensive ability.

  3. stickguy says:

    Well, I certainly am not qualified to argue the relative merits of UZR, especially which pieces can/are skewing the result (range vs. arm vs. errors). Heck, a lot of errors never hurt the team (say a guy getting an extra base) but a lot of non-plays can (a ball in the dirt tough play not handled, but no error charged) hurt more since it puts a guy on.

    anyway, I fully agree with the premise though. What really has to be factored in is the impact on the pitching. I relaly think a big part of Pelfrey’s problems this year were having so many balls not caught! You think any GB pitcher wants to look around and see murphy, cora and Castillo on the IF?

    at least the UZR data supports getting HOlliday if you want him (and I notice that Damon and Bay are conspicuously absent from the list).

    final point though, you cant go all the way to the UZR or bust side. 8 guys that field like Endy might savea bunch of runs, but you also won’t be scoring very many!

    • CaseStreet says:

      yeah, I really didn’t want to argue the merits of any stat, but more importantly the Mets should try to focus on Defense like the Mariners and Rays did.

      Your point about Pelf is quite astute. The Batting Average of Balls in Play, this year was higher than it should be. Maybe there were lots of balls getting through the infield, considering Pelf has one of the highest ground ball rates in the league.

      No we can’t have a team of Endy’s but a team of Dunn’s isn’t the answer either.

  4. wannybackstra says:

    Best post in TRDMB history.

  5. wannybackstra says:

    As I’ve said from the beginning of the offseason (which for us has been since July), Marlon Byrd would make a lot of sense for the Mets in LF to at least platoon with Pagan or someone else if not play every day.

    Of course, Crawford would be the perfect acquisition but I just don’t see that we have the goods to get him and I can’t see TB just cashing in the season by taking lower level prospects.

    • trs86 says:

      You know I am very unsure on UZR, however, convince me that I should like Byrd more than Cameron. For the sake of the arguement, I know you hate this, but lets assume that they both will cost the same but Cameron is on a 1 year deal and Byrd is on a 2 year deal. I am just assuming that based on age. Byrd .808 OPS in Texas, Cameron .795 OPS in Mil.

      • wannybackstra says:

        Am I an employee or something?

        Cameron missed about 10 games to injury last year, is no longer permitted to use PEDs and is 4 years older than Byrd.

        Byrd missed one game to injury last year, is 4 years younger than Cameron and has far less tread on his tires.

        Cameron’s OBP over the last three years is .334. Byrd’s is about .350 (B-R won’t tally Byrd’s for me but .350 is just about right).

  6. Austin Kearns, Ross Gload and Jamey Carroll would be the least sexy off season ever. The fans would be burning Omar’s effigy. And yet it’s hard to argue that the team wouldn’t be more fundamentally sound, something that is drastically needed.

  7. Seattle undeniably made a remarkable (24 wins) improvement and isn’t it nice that we helped facilitate it by getting Gutierrez for them?

    I think if the Mets don’t pay attention to your advice, or perhaps more appropriately, to what Seattle and the Rays have done recently, they are fools.

    Whoever the 2010 Mets run out in LF had damn well better be able to field their position competently.

    The 2009 Mets were 19-24 in 1-run games and 4-7 in extra inning games. The Mariners were 35-20 and 9-7 respectively. Catching and throwing properly goes a long way.

    • CaseStreet says:

      Hmm, I didn’t know about the 1 run games. tnx

      • Here’s another one.

        The Mets committed at least 1 error, sometimes more than 1, in 14 of those 24 1 run losses.

        I didn’t study the boxscores to notice how directly A led to B, but just committing the error forces the pitcher to throw more pitches both overall and with runners on base and turns over the line up so that later in the game you’re facing hitters in situations that you shouldn’t.

        Errors lead to pitching from the stretch, pitching under duress, pitching changes.

        Listen to Case Mets!

  8. CaseStreet says:

    Thanks to Wanny and Grave for playing along.

    Anyong think this is possible:

    Crawford
    Reyes
    Wright
    Derrek Lee
    Beltran
    Frenchy
    Lopez
    C

    Santana
    Lackey
    Pelf
    Maine
    Perez

    would that fit in the budget?

    • CaseStreet says:

      never mind, Lee makes $13M and Crawford $10M, Lackey could be bt $16M-$18M, and Lopez could be $6M.

      • wannybackstra says:

        Depending upon whether you’ve dealt away any salary maybe you can work it out.

        Lopez and Castillo are a wash and since Lopez is in your lineup I’m assuming you’ve found a taker for Castillo.

        The problem is with the Mets’ top heavy salary structure, I dont see which other contract could be moved (either for poor performance reasons, i.e. Perez, or for the Mets decision to retain players, i.e. Beltran, F-Rod, etc.

      • wannybackstra says:

        If the Mets somehow traded for AGonz or another big bat at 1B, they could afford to go with the veteran and all-around solid Randy Winn in LF. I’ve always liked his complete game and think he’d be a good fit in Citifield’s outfield (and his ability to play all three positions might mean the Mets could try to capitalize on Pagan’s 2009 in a trade).

        Would a Pagan/Murphy package have any value in trading for a pitcher?

        Suppose a package like FMart, Holt, Parnell and Niese are dealt for Gonzalez. Could the Mets then trade Pagan and Murphy for a Jeremy Guthrie type?

        This would allow the Mets to still have enough money for a Lackey or a Holliday. Or they could sign Randy Winn for LF and another pitcher, i.e. Harden or Wolf and probably a reliever. Sure, there’s no clear cut #2 there unless Harden is healthy but this roster, rotation and balance is better than the current:

        Reyes SS
        Castillo 2B
        Gonzalez 1B
        Beltran CF
        Wright 3B
        Winn LF
        Francoeur RF
        Santos C
        Santana, Harden, Guthrie, Pelfrey, Perez
        K-Rod, Maine, Betancourt(?), Feliciano, etc.

  9. Speaking of defense, interesting article comparing the relative merits of Jason Bay vs. Mike Cameron:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron/

    These 4 paragraphs stood out to me:

    “Bay has produced +28 runs above average per 600 PA with the bat since 2002, while Cameron is at +13 runs above average per 600 PA over the same time frame. That’s a 15 run per season gap. It’s a real difference, but probably smaller than the perception of their relative offensive abilities.

    That’s just the offensive side, of course. On the other side of the ball, Cameron is one of the better defensive center fielders in the game, while Bay is a bad defensive corner outfielder. You don’t have to trust UZR to agree with those assessments. Those aren’t controversial statements.

    If we want to look at the numbers, Cameron is +6 UZR/150 over the last eight years, while Bay is -8 UZR/150. But, of course, they aren’t being compared to the same average baseline, since Cameron plays CF and Bay plays LF. Historically, the gap between an average LF and an average CF is about 10 runs, so the gap is actually 24 runs over their careers.

    Even if you don’t like UZR, and you want to cut that number in half to account for your uncertainty about defensive value, you’ll still come out with a total value that makes them about equal. And, given the samples we have, you should trust UZR a lot more than that. With a correct amount of regression, the defensive difference comes out larger than the offensive difference, making Cameron the better player overall.”

    The author’s central point is that, after Matt Holliday, the 2nd best available FA OF is Cameron, not Bay. Interesting.

  10. CaseStreet says:

    Barajas would be the guy to target but I wouldn’t mind Castro, either. I know he and Jerry don’t get along, but they’re grownups. The Santos/Castro platoon was def one of the better we’ve seen and both have pop off the bench. Maybe if Thole is ready mid-season, Castro can produce another Lance Broadway.

    • fongy2 says:

      I wouldn’t bother with the Catchers until after the new year. There are far more
      back-up catchers available
      than positions their needed for. There will be guys who
      you can sign a couple weeks before camp real cheap who aren’t all that much diff than
      the ones who’ll rec 2yr MLB deals earlier.

    • trs86 says:

      Castro? Really? Why would anyone want him back? Take a look at his numbers last year. .219 BA with a .299 OBP. Schneider: 218 .292

      • CaseStreet says:

        If you are going to use numbers, I don’t think BA is the right one and especially when you are talking about 171 Plate Appearances.

        Look at his past 3 years. He was 3.0 WAR and $13.1 Dollar Value.

        If you don’t like those, he also posted a .777 OPS and a .334 wOBA. Yadier Molina .735 OPS and .325 wOBA during the same time.

        To split time w/ Santos I can’t complain. And there’s no reason to believe he’ll be as expensive as Molina or some of these other guys. Plus, he is much more likely to take a one year deal or traded if Thole is ready soon. I may be wrong but I just remember that the Schneider was the one that should’ve been traded. Castro and Santos were a good platoon.

        • trs86 says:

          He’s also more likely to be too injured to even be a backup. Seriously the guy is fat and lazy and never wanted to push himself to be a starter. I was glad when he was traded.

          • CaseStreet says:

            what you got against fat and lazy people? LOL

            I disagree, though. He was good for the Mets and you could always count oh Castro for some clubhouse fun.

            • trs86 says:

              Then bring him in as the Bullpen catcher unpaid. The guy was never healthy.
              What does it say about a guy who took a job as a backup when he was offered more money to start?

              • CaseStreet says:

                IDK what that was about, maybe he knew his body limitations, maybe he wants to last longer, for whatever reason he’s content with being a backup. BTW, I’ve been looking for articles saying he turned down an offer to start. But I can’t find one. I’m not saying you are lying, I’m just trying to see if there was more there.

                • I recall reading articles suggesting Castro was happier playing 1 to 2 games a week than he was starting, but I don’t know that there were ever quotes attributing that to him as much as there was simply an assumption of it.

                  I think the basis for the assumption comes from the fact that as a free agent after the 2007 season, he re-signed with the Mets knowing he would be a back up.

                  Whether there were opportunities to start out there or not, I can’t say, I just know he was a free agent so at least in theory this opportunity existed, but he chose to stay on here as a back up.

    • trs86 says:

      At this point Lance Broadway is a steal for Castro for one reason. He won’t be on the MLB team. That’s good enough. Castro always got on my nerves. Any guy that had enough talent to start but refused to work to do it. He was content with being a backup and was never even healthy enough to do that.

  11. fongy2 says:

    Marlon Byrd, Randy Winn, Rod Barajas?
    God forbid Omar wastes time and money
    on these types!
    Please stop before you give him any ideas!

    • CaseStreet says:

      sorry,

      Holliday, Hudson and Molina it is.

      • fongy2 says:

        Thanks but no thanks to that either,
        Holliday=real good but not great,looking for
        great player money.
        Hudson=nice player,overrated though
        looking for a multi-year deal.Better options @2B who are FAs.
        Molina=real good Catcher for a few yrs
        who will be 36 during the season.
        No thank you to any 36y/o Catchers.
        That age = End of the
        road for that position
        and usually happens
        overnight.

        Next….

        • trs86 says:

          Can’t say that if we got Holliday and then those 2 on 1 year deals we would not be a better team. The key would be getting those 2 overrated players on one year deals and then brining in guys like Wolf if they could not afford Lackey.

    • trs86 says:

      You gotta have bench players Fongy and those guys would make fine bench guys but I really would not want any of them to start. Problem with Catcher is Barajas is about as good as it gets. Winn may be finished and Byrd scares me coming from Texas.

  12. Kingman 26 says:

    Case, thank you for taking the time to write this absolutely outstanding and amazing post.

  13. Case did you see that your boy Zduriencik locked up Jack Wilson, the best defensive SS in the game? Apparently his emphasis on defense was not just a one year, fad kind of thing.

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