Ticket to Rumorville 2.0
Posted by metro on 8:07am, Wednesday November 18th 2009
- Mets interested in Mark DeRosa (Dylan Hernandez-LA Times)
-Mets interested in John Smoltz (Ken Rosenthal)
- Mets interested in Joel Piniero (Heyman and Rubin)
-Some internet chatter (mostly message boards but also mentioned briefly by Michael Kay) of Corey Hart for Angel Pagan
-An agent (not Lackey’s) tells George King that Lackey will be able to score a deal similar to Zito’s… WOW….I wasn’t loving Lackey at 5 years at all, but if he’s somehow getting Zito money it will be a HORRID deal for some team
- Mets reportedly amongst teams interested in Edwin Jackson…… Go for him please
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Brewers tring to make an all met of? I’m sure they can get l-millz too.
Ziito money for lackey is laughable, unless ur the team who signs him.
Pineiro is interesting though his contact rate is nuts.
Agreed all around….and once Willie takes over the Brewers, I am sure the bratwurst will taste that much sweeter.
Lackey for more than maybe 5/80 is nuts, and even maybe nuts then.
Yes on Edwin Jackson, NOOOOO on Pineiro.
And maybe it really is time to make the Halladay deal work; he is a lot better than Lackey, and my mantra is that a 1-2 punch of a healthy Johan and Roy is Seaver/Koosman, Koufax/Drysdale, Schilling/Johnson, Schilling/Pedro etc…i.e., a duo that can lead a team to a title.
Two number one aces make up for a LOT of other deficiencies, as the teams around all of my above duos (except for the Red Sox) show.
I agree on Halladay. After really looking at it, the trade could be another Johan special. If the Yankees and Rsox are not in it and he won’t go west…
Perhaps a deal of Niese, Holt, Tejada and Fmart can get it done? I go back to my idea of also adding Overbay and Downs to the trade as it fills 2 needed positions for us and frees up another 11 million for them.
Yeah, I am vigorously back on the TRADE FOR ROY bandwagon….and Lackey may very well re-sign with the Angels anyway.
Trade the prospects, use the window, and make it the Johan deal 2.0.
I wonder if we can keep his salary the same this year and then let the new contract take effect next year? That would keep the 16 million in place instead of 20 wich could be big. Say you COULD get Holliday for 5/85 but 15 the first year that would still leave you money to get a few spare parts.
Can’t tell me that if we could get Halladay and Bay/Holliday we would not jump right back into the discussion again.
keep backloading all the contracts like that, and you end up like the blue jays (see the wells deal).
Not really back loading that much.
15 instead of 17 for 1 year with Holliday? That really does not make that much of a difference.
15 instead of 20 for Holliday is just part of the deal. Look we will give you uh 5/100 after 2010’s 15 million. Making the total deal 6/115.
What would be the negative to Hart for Pagan?
Also, while DeRosa would be a great addition, wouldn’t he be looking for a place he would play every day? Would signing him be our LF/1B/2B (with Castillo gone) everyday option?
Interesting on Hart. Maybe if you threw in a backend type pitcher to even it up?
Why on Earth would the Brewers do anything but laugh heartily at Pagan for Hart??
Well, Hart for Pagan would be great, and as Metro says, it is “internet chatter,” which is a euphemism for “meaningless speculation.”
Why would the Brewers do this? Hart has produced far more than Pagan, is also fast, has good power, is not too pricey, and I think he is younger than Pagan.
A nice move for the Mets in Fantasyland….if Omar could pull this one off, we should all be impressed.
I can’t tell if it is the age of the blogger who speculates and people take the word to be gold or if it is the “fantasy baseball” mentality that has seeped into most people’s brains that people start to think, “yeah, we could totally trade Pagan for Hart” or other proposed transactions/acquisitions that are floated out there.
And for Halladay… Please, Please, Please make it work Omar. Do it for the Fans, the Orphans, the whomevers. Just do it!
Yeah, I agree…over at Metsblog, some folks create 2010 lineups with Lackey, Halladay, Holliday, Molina, and more….fantasy baseball it is!
I read that a little this morning. Makes you just shake your head. These guys start thinking “Hey, if the Yankees can do it, why can’t we?”…
Corey Hart has been a below average player for the past 2 seasons. OPS 2008-.759, OPS 2009- .753, considering the difference in salary (Hart at 4+ and Pagan likely FAR less) and the fact Pagan can play CF (yes I know they traded for Gomez) it’s not as laughable as you would think (and yes my initial thought was it was laughable as well) but bottom line is last 1000+ ab’s Hart has been a below average corner OF and 4+ million may be more than the Brewers see him being worth.
Depends on how much stock the Brewers put into last years stats.
Last 2 years Hart has had an OPS of .759 and .753 (2009).
For OF last year Hart had an UZR of -9.1
Hart made 3.25 million last year and should make at least 4 million this year
Fangraphs worth last year 3.2. So unless he improves he is a negative worth player next year.
Has 1 more year of arby years left
Last year for Pagan
OPS .837
OF UZR 11.3
Paid .575 million last year
Fangraphs worth 12.6M last year
Has at least 2 more years of arbitration left.
So we all watch the Mets everyday and are much more skeptical but perhaps he has more worth to other teams considering he can play all 3 OF postions well and can lead off.
You know TRS, I love numbers and stats, but as a very wise man once said “Statistics are like a bikini–they show you a lot, but not everything.”
Where in those numbers are Pagan’s completely empty head, inability to be aware of the situation on the basepaths, and Bad News Bears-level baseball instincts taken into consideration?
I don’t know Hart very well, but he is a full-time player, who has a decent amount of power and is fast. How could he possibly not be considered an outright steal for Pagan?
He would be, that is why I said you would have to throw in a pitcher that could start next year for them. Perhaps a Maine or Niese.
But back to your comment on empty headed. Perhaps it’s another case of he has a lot of talent and we can fix him. They do have Willie over there. Maybe he is a big Pagan supporter.
I think the key for the Brewers might be the 3.5 million saved that could go towards pitching. Say you brought in Maine and Pagan for Hart and then used more cash to bring in uh Garland/Wolf/Pinero?
Personally, I still like Maine and his potential a lot and would not trade him in a deal for Hart.
A healthy Maine as 4th or 5th starter sounds really good to me.
You are forgetting a key detail there.
You get Hart for LF at 4M or less and did not add any to your payroll.
So now you can spend ALL your money on pitching/1B.
maine is my pick for the rebound player of the year award. He is going to put it all together and have a big, big year.
and of course, if Omar does something stupid like non tender him, it will probably be for the yankees.
I don’t see him nontendering him. I just don’t see how he is going to log 200 innings. Is his shoulder even fixed?
I think this may actually be an offseason for Omar to be patient. Perhaps there is a way that you can end up with say Halladay and Holliday or Lackey and Bay… I doubted it for most of the offseason but with a lot of teams sliding out of the big name market perhaps the cards will fall right.
Interesting poll on that other blog asking about bringing Delgado back on a one year deal. Cerrone goes on to say:
‘…people seem to think i hate delgado, which is not true…’
Well, that would be my take on all posts I’ve read of his on Delgado. He’s been making some thinly veiled digs at him as the clubhouse leader, time to move on, new culture, etc. Maybe he doesn’t hate him, per say, but I get the distinct impression from his posts he thinks Delgado’s ‘leadership’ in the clubhouse is a problem….
I’d put chances of Delgado coming back at around 30%. If he proves he’s healthy at winter ball and ready to go, I’m thinking he’d rather have a multi year contract instead of a one year. And he might just get that over in the AL.
Taking a 1 year deal to prove his worth in hopes of getting a better deal at the end of the season doesn’t make much sense to me, given his age. If he has a decent year, he’s still going to be 38 come season’s end…
I would rather get Overbay as a salary dump or pick up a scrub that is left but IF Delgado is our only chance to upgrade Murphy and he is willing to re-sign for cheap and 1 year… sure. I don’t buy into how Delgado dominates a clubhouse.
I wouldn’t trade hart for pagan. Hart has pretty much stunk for the last 2 years, plus we already have a low OBP, mediocre OPS RF.
how about the coaches work with Pagan (tutor him) on some of the nuances of baserunning and OF play? I know he made a couple of notable gaffes last year (as did just about every one else ont he team), but he still had a very productive year, is good in the field, and is cheap.
So he should actually be a fairly sought after commodity to other teams.
I honestly think the the same mentality that often leads to met fans over valueing prospects causes them to wildly undervalue ML tlent. maybe living with someone makes you too atuned to their flaws, so you no longer see their positives?
Hart had an outlier 2007, and in over 1000 PAs since then, really hasn’t been that good.
What you run the risk of if you keep Pagan when is value is the highest is that he flops and returns to normal.
If you could get a guy like Hart who WAS an offensive force then I would consider it. Same for trading him to the Royals for a guy like DeJesus.
I agree with this. The fact that Pagan hit consistently the past two years (when he wasn’t out on injury, that is), is a plus. Proves he’s a bit better than just someone off the bench. I’m not sold on Franceour yet so Pagan might be needed some in RF, not to mention center if Beltran winds up on the DL again.
True, he could be useful. I just think that considering we do not think of him as a starting LF then if we could get one who is by trading him we should.
I am not really sure that the inability of a Major League ballplayer with years in the majors to know how to run the bases can be referred to as a “nuance”.
Again, how many players on the Mets had issues with that this year? Who knows if different coaching could fix that problem?
Many, but Pagan probably had about as many as everyone else combined, and the same things again and again, and in part-time play mostly.
Personally, I feel that he is a just about ideal 4th OF.
And a lot of his wonderful offense came against teams with one foot out the door last year.
Seriously, it is a small sample, and as I say above stats don’t show everything, but in the last few weeks last year, Pagan was 20-for-52 against Wash, Fla, and Hou, and 5-for-29 against the Phils and Braves.
The guy’s a 4th OF to me.
That’s cherry picking Kingman. Of course he struggled against the better teams. Almost all players do. So as you said “I love numbers and stats, but as a very wise man once said “Statistics are like a bikini–they show you a lot, but not everything.”
But for your love of stats.
In 26 games in August, way before teams started packing it in:
.301 .348 .563 .911 with 6 HR.
This as a leadoff hitter:
.316 .358 .508 .866
RISP:
.321 .400 .604 1.004
2 Outs:
.304 .379 .478 .857
Late and Close:
.340 .389 .480 .869
Citi:
.333 .373 .565 .938
vs Phillies:
.296 .296 .556 .852
vs Marlins:
.367 .446 .571 1.018
vs Braves:
Terrible .245 .288 .388 .676
Dodgers:
.417 .417 .500 .917
Cards:
.500 .455 1.125 1.580
I think I am willing to forgive his struggles vs the Braves.
Is a .755 OPS in 1100 plate appearances, with 32 HRs total, a big enough sample size to mean something? A full season (600+ PAs) with an even .300 OBP?
Sure Hart was a starting OF (RF only though the last 2 years). So yeah, you could stick him in LF and say you are done. Doesn’t seem like it really helps the D (at least based on UZR, since I obviously have no 1st hand exeprience watching him).
I am not saying that Pagan is primed to be the MVP next year, but he is useful and cheap. I also know there was a lot of discussion last year on the radio (too much time in the car listening to XM homeplate) about how much Hart had fallen off the map.
I am just thinking that the people pining for the big upgrade power bat are going to be really, really grumpy by mid season when they see Hart out there putting up sub-sheffield #s.
a better option might be to keep pagan since you need him, and if you want hart, trade a B prospect or 2 for him, since the Brewers seem to be tired of him. Or get equivalent production off the non-tender FA pile.
The thought would be that his career #’s are this: .273 .326 .470 .795. Not great but servicable for the price and will hit 15-25 HR and could return to 2007 form of .295 .353 .539 .892
Still torn on Halladay. I also don’t see him coming over for a Johan-level package. I also wouldn’t give him more than a 3 year extension. That carries him though his age 36 season. Just pay him a little more per season ut go shorter.
I wonder if he gets a chance to go to a team he likes, if he will really force the immediate extension (if the alternative is staying in Toronto?) If you are going to have to pony up 5/120 just to get him to sign the extension, pass. I would rather get him and let him hit FA, and try to sign him then, since it won’t cost any more.
I would easily give Halladay 5 years plus 2010. Yes it will lock him up until the end of his career but having him and Johan locked up gives you intelligent starters that should age well.
I think he will force the extension either way and even now he basically gets to pick the team he wants and the contract he wants.
Why do you think he would cost more than Johan if only a few teams are in it?
He would cost more in terms of Prospects or $$?
My lasting memory of Hart is the National League losing yet another All-Star game as Hart threw a weak multi-bouncer wide of home plate as the AL scored the winning run.
we’ve done a good job in here of pointing out the distinctions between Cory Hart’s good seasons and bad seasons (and don’t forget he wears sunglasses at night). but have we forgotten that Angel Pagan played pretty crappy ML baseball for parts of three seasons before this, is always hurt and had just a .715 OPS for his career in the minor leagues?
Why are we comparing all of Hart’s seasons to just one of Pagan’s?
You’re in a very musical mood today. The hills are alive!