Thursday Opinion at Kingman’s Korner: Halladay or Lackey?
Posted by Kingman 26 on 7:56am, Thursday November 19th 2009
As we rapidly approach the beginning of the truly meaningful part of 2009 for the Mets and their fans, the debate about pitching is heating up. There are indeed several possibilities, and as we are fortunate to be fans of one of the highest spending teams in baseball, we should see some serious improvement.
The Lackey VS Halladay debate has become more intense, as there clearly are merits and demerits for the ideas of adding either one of them.
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The starting rotation must be improved, and the era of Pelf/Maine/Ollie as 2-3-4 is over. Regardless of the high points of success the current Met starters have had over the last few years, we are looking at a staff of question marks. Johan is returning from surgery, but when we consider the pain he pitched with in 2008 and the results, especially in his last start, combined with his intensity and the shape he keeps himself in, I do not think anyone should be surprised if we see an even better Johan than we saw the in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009.
Mike Pelfrey clearly has talent and throws hard, yet had a very disappointing 2009. He surely will be in the rotation in 2010, perhaps the only other certain Met 2010 starter other than Johan. Maybe Verducci was right when it comes to Pelf; if so, we may see an encouraging rebound.
John Maine will most likely be around for another year, and while the days of expecting him to develop into an ace may be waning, a healthy Maine is still a good and valuable back-of-the-rotation pitcher.
What can be said about Oliver Perez? That he is untradeable seems to be the only near-certainty. As a fifth starter, he has a gigantic potential upside, to go along with an insanely bloated contract.
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It does not take too much analysis of the above to conclude that we seriously need help in the rotation. I personally feel that we simply must invest the one giant contract we are likely to award this offseason to the very best starter we can obtain. I think that we have to have either Halladay or Lackey.
Trading for Roy Halladay might be the very best move this team could make. He and Johan and what we have would be more than enough, and the rest of the resources could go to multiple holes and to a potential big midseason move. The 1-2 punch of a healthy Johan and Halladay would be at the level of championship tandems like Koufax/Drysdale, Seaver/Koosman, Schilling/Johnson, and Schilling/Pedro. Prospects are developed, to a large degree, to use in trades. The Johan trade was magnificent. Halladay would almost surely cost more. Omar would be missing the potential chance to lift this team instantly back into contention were he to pass on the realistic chance to trade for Halladay if in fact the Jays do like our prospects. Let the Jays practically have their choice of four minor leaguers, or a combo of prospects and maybe a Murph or a Maine. FMart, Davis, Holt and Mejia might be too much, but if we could land Halladay and keep one or two of those guys, it must be done.
Halladay goes 7+ every time out, and this immediately improves the bullpen; he has averaged over 7 IP per start the last 3 years. He takes the pressure off of Johan somewhat, and makes the rest of the rotation better. Halladay’s ERA, WHIP, CG, and BB are all significantly better than Lackey’s over the last five years; especially over the last two.
John Lackey is a year younger, and is a very good pitcher to be sure. However, he has missed a chunk of each of the last two years. His ERA each of the last two seasons has been an entire run higher than Halladay’s. For a team like the Mets, who will have a good but not overwhelming offense, this extra run allowed every time out by the number two starter could contribute to many more losses over the course of the year. As the wise Gravediggerhebner recently showed, the difference in winning games changes dramatically once that 4th or 5th run is allowed. One less run every time out over 32 starts can potentially make the difference between a first and second place finish; or between playoffs and no playoffs. This is why Halladay is so much more valuable than Lackey, especially for a team which in 2007 and 2008 missed the postseason by one game.
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Another way to go is to target a lesser starter (or two) such as from the Wolf/ Pineiro/Marquis bunch, and then possibly try to harvest a huge potential bargain if a Bedard/Sheets could be had for reasonable money. Or Omar might explore whether the talk of the Braves being willing to deal Lowe is for real. Getting them to take on some of his salary, which might very well be realistic, could make having Lowe very attractive. At several million less per and at one year less than his asking fee last year, slotting him right behind Johan gives the team a potentially excellent 1-2 punch for at least a couple of years, as well as a second chance at Lowe, and at a more reasonable price. Trading someone making anything of significance for Lowe would increase the saving of serious money over a hypothetical Lackey 5/90 deal, or over whatever Halladay would demand in an extension. Lowe is not as desirable as Halladay or Lackey, but is surely better than the group of second-tier FA starters. The Church/Frenchy deal shows that the teams will trade with each other.
To me, these lesser routes are just not the right choice for this team; we need the best starter we can obtain. Marquis, Pineiro, and Wolf are all decent pitchers, coming off of years which, for them, were very good. None of them can be counted on to be a serious and reliable number two starter for a team in desperate need of reliability in the role.
Going with the lesser starters, or focusing on Holliday or Bay (or Figgins), are not the right moves. If, as expected, Reyes and Beltran return to at least 80-90% of their pre-injury selves, and Wright does also after the beaning and mysterious power loss, and if Francoeur and Murph hit as they did the latter part of the year, we will have a fine, if not spectacular, offense. Matt Holliday is a very good player whose career stats are dramatically inflated by Coors Field, and Jason Bay is a very good player who is coming off a really good year in a park that tremendously favors RH hitters. Neither of these two can be realistically viewed as a Tex-type, all-around franchise player. Scoring another run a game will not lift this team to contention with a rotation of Johan and a bunch of 3s and 4s.
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As some have pointed out, the key difference between the two from an acquisitional standpoint is that we can have Lackey for just a boatload of Freddybucks, whereas Halladay would potentially cost even more money, as well as several of our best prospects. This is certainly true, but it is a risk worth taking.
Some talk of the risk of having so many huge contracts, especially when two would be for pitchers who, in a couple of years, will be well into their 30s. A valid concern, but again, one worth the risk.
Making the postseason in 2010 and winning the WS in 2011 would render these concerns moot, and would provide enough extra dollars to continue to improve the team even with the huge deals and the possible huge future raises for Wright and Reyes. We have one title in the last 40 years, and as disturbing as that may be, I feel that passing on one of the very best pitchers in the game in order to keep prospects who may indeed become nothing more than the prospects we traded for Johan is far too conservative.
As has been pointed out here before, 1-2 ace starter punches like Johan and Halladay have indeed won titles with comparatively little around them other than good, solid, fundamental players. Teams like the 1963 and 1965 Dodgers, the 1969 Mets, and the 2001 Diamondbacks are excellent examples of this. The DBacks may be the best potential parallel-they had a good offense, as we should have, but very, very little else on the pitching staff.
Yes, we need another bullpen arm, and an upgrade is needed in LF and probably at either C or 1B. Moving the potentially trade-able Slappy and trying to acquire Brandon Phillips to play 2B would also be desirable. The team clearly has several holes to fill. But many of those holes-from the rest of the rotation to the pen to the overall offense-are instantly lessened in severity by adding a pitcher of Halladay’s proven ability.
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Adding a starting pitcher of Roy Halladay’s outstanding track record has to be done if possible. In addition to being hurt the last two years, Lackey simply is not as good in any way as Halladay, and Lackey’s injuries must take a much, much larger role in the equation when we remember the season we just witnessed. Should we wake up one day soon to a “Halladay to the Yanks/BoSox” headline, then signing Lackey, or perhaps trading for Lowe, instantly becomes infinitely more pressing.
Regardless, Omar should not go the route of the lesser starter, unless the team does in fact decide to overpay for Holliday and add another serious offensive force, such as Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, or someone like that. If we add nothing better than Pineiro, Wolf, or Marquis to the rotation, we will need a far better offense than we are likely to have.
Santana/Halladay has the potential to be the successor to the recent title tandems of Schilling/Johnson and Schilling/Pedro.
Let’s just hope Don Fred agrees and tells his Capo Omar what Sonny Corleone said to Peter Clemenza when Paulie failed to show up for work one too many times: “I want you to make that first thing on your list, understand?”
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I think you summed it up quite nicely. In my mind, if you are going to spend the money for high end car, you don’t get the stripped down version. You get the one with nice ammenities. IE, if you are going to spend all that money, might as well get the best. They aren’t going to trade for Agonz, as Boston is sure to match or beat any reasonable package the Mets offer.
Very good point on pushing pelf/ollie/maine from the 2/3/4 to the 3/4/5.
And I agree on the offensive output. While having more pop in the order at 1B, LF or C (or even 2B for that matter) would be nice, the Mets should have enough already to be competitive and put up some decent numbers. Everyone wants to avoid the whole injury reason for the power outage, but it can’t be ignored. A healthy team with Wright, Reyes, Beltran and now with Francouer has power. If Pena or a Hart or a Cameron can be added to the mix, that lineup would be more than enough.
Now, if they can do a super whammy and trade for both Halladay, Phillips and Arroyo, I may spontainously combust. A man can dream…
Good job. I agree on Halladay. My question is why would we want Lowe at say 3/36 (That’s assuming the Braves pick up 9 million which would not happen anyway) over Wolf/Peniero/Marquis at 1-2 for 8-9 per? Lowe was not good last year at all.
I personally am vehemently against Oliver Perez Pineiro. One good year in the last half decade.
Marquis? Not very good.
I would like Wolf (or Arroyo) to be our number 3.
Lowe had a mediocre year, but to me, his track record and reliability far outweigh what we might expect from the trio of Ollie Pineiro/Marquis/Wolf.
He’s also 37 years old and signed until 40 and coming off a terrible season that for the most part pitchers show great gains in Atlanta. He had a WHIP of over 1.50 last year and gave up 232 hits. To put that in perspective, Jason Marquis has never give up that many hits in a season in his career.
Excellent job.
1. Doc is the pujols of pitching. Wouldnt you trade everything for pujols?
2. In citi holliday with have less of an impact than lackey or doc
3. We have 3 stars in the lineup and only 1 in the rotation
4. Both yanks and phils had great offenses but the better pitching won
Thanks a lot Case, and your four points above are SO right on….
I think most peolpe would wholeheartedly agree with you that acquiring Halladay would be the best case scenario, but this begs the all important question of how realistic that really is? I know that everyone said we didn’t have enough to get Johan, but can we really expect lighting to strike twice in the course of three years???
Look, Omar should, and no doubt will, do his due diligence on Halladay, but at the end of the day you have to think that the orginization has its sights set on your other two options (i.e. Lackey or signing from the next tier of pitchers).
If that is in fact the way it’s going to be, then I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t go hard after Lackey AND a power bat (i.e. Holliday or Bay).
There are some decent pitchers who I think would be an upgrade for the Mets in the second tier, but at the end of the day, the FO needs to make a concerted effort to breathe new life into the team, the orginization, and perhaps more importantly, the fan base. I’m not sure those second tier guys do that.
I just don’t know if they can afford Lackey AND Bay/Holliday. It really depends on who gets involved. Same with Halladay. Perhaps the package is not as great as you think because the Yankees and Rsox don’t get involved.
See, I want Lackey or Halladay AND Wolf or Arroyo.
That’s the ticket to the postseason right there.
You know that won’t happen. No way do we get Halladay/Lackey AND another pitcher. Unless we trade Pelfrey/Maine. That is my fear with spending 17M on Lackey. We still need another pitcher and a hitter. Pelfrey, Perez, Maine is still 3 question marks. To win we need to get that down to 2 and no Wolf, Piniero, Marquis, Garland, types are not guaranteed they are much more certain that that trio in my mind.
add Cam for $8M, bring in a good fielder at 2B and I’m buying tix.
Ticket prices would have to go back up then because that would require them to go over budget right?
16-18, 9-12, 8, 3 That’s 36-41 million and you still don’t have a backup catcher or setup man.
Lackey 16
Wolf 8
Cam 8
2B swaps contract w/ Castillo
Maine is SU
C - AAA guy or let Thole backup Santos
That’s your 32 for sure. Problem is swapping Castillo’s contract. You are not getting prospects for him. Thus you are most likely taking on someone with similar salary for him or eating quite a bit of salary from him. Thus …
Who says they couldn’t get some lower level B type prospects or non-prospects?
Without pickup up some salary? I just don’t see it. Why would they take 12 million on Castillo when they could have better players in Lopez, Polanco and Hudson for cheaper?
1. Because maybe those guys won’t want to play to wherever it is Castillo is being banished.
2. Castillo’s skills are different than those guys as he the only high OBP table setter with base stealing/running skills.
If someone needs a credible major league player who knows how to get on base, has $6m to spare and has to give up non-prospects, it’s certainly reasonable.
And if that team’s need is a high OBP table setter, none of those other guys fit the bill.
When did Hudson become a better player, by the way? When did you change your tune on that one?
And it is highly possible that no one trusts Lopez to be a consistent player because of his one good season at 2B after they compare that to his yoyo like career.
You’ve really relied on one season samples an awful lot lately… unless it is a player like Michael Bourn that you do not like.
“I know that everyone said we didn’t have enough to get Johan, but can we really expect lighting to strike twice in the course of three years???”
grave and I broke this down the other day.
The comp comes down to Yanks, Red Sox, Mets and if the offers are similar, gotta figure Blue Jays prefer to deal out of the organization.
Here’s how we came up w/ that list:
http://www.nleastchatter.com/realdirtymets/2009/11/16/the-gunslinger-from-texas-roy-oswalt/
And honestly based on reports AT THE TIME it was the Mets. Now it seems as though the Yankees and Rsox are both back in. However, it seems very familiar that the Rsox and Yankees are only involved to keep each other honest. I don’t think either team wanted to pay Johan and trade the prospects, they just did not want the other team to get him for a steal like the Mets did. Could easily be the same with Halladay.
yes it can, I think Doc is the key here. Johan wanted to get moved and wanted to be in the NL. Hopefully Doc wants to be a Met, too.
Case, I only see an entry about Oswalt. Sorry I missed the story.
In any event, I agree that the Mets are at an advantage in that the Jays are unlikely to trade him int he division. In fact, that would be incredibly stupid.
Still,I’m not sure that we can automatically count out the rest fo the league, you know?
sorry, it was in the comments.
though, the Jays GM said he would trade in the division if it was a better package, since they’d only face him a couple of time out of the year.
Matt please proof read. Gammons is no this dumb and should not be misquoted.
“For instance, on Twitter, ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons pointed out that, in the last seven years, the Marlins have 12 more wins, five more post-season appearances and one more World Series ring than the Mets, and all for $600 million less.”
Hmmm, so the Marlins have made the post season 6 times in the last 7 years?
Ha.
Well, they definetly have one more WS ring.
Proofread? How the hell can Cerrone read that sentence and not IMMEDIATELY know how comically wrong it is factually?
His very next sentence is a conclusion based on thinking the Marlins facts were correct!
This is really too much….does he think the Marlins have been to the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years??
I am not sure he even watches baseball.
How can he not have instantly realized how wrong that was?
I joke about Cerrone not knowing anything about baseball other than Met-related things dating back about 6 or 8 years, but this was comically ridiculous even for him.
He fixed it.
LOL, maybe he’s reading here.
Hey guys, what do you think it would take to get Guthrie from the O’s? He did not do well last year but was very good the 2 previous years. I think he still has 2 years of arbitration left. He is however, 30 years old and pitching for a Baltimore team that looks like it may be competitive in maybe 3-5 years. Would they trade him for a couple of pitchers that could still be around in 3-5 years like Niese and Holt?
Would you trade Neise and Holt for Guthrie?
Yes.
I’ve been thinking about this. If push came to shove, I probably would, but my reservations are I’d rather save the chips for something bigger. Especially for a 30yr old pitcher not named Roy (Doc or Oswalt). Wish I had the time to delve into Guthrie’s body of work. From what I know of him he was decent to above decent for 2 years and that’s been it for his career, right?
Next question of the day. Would you trade Pelfrey in a deal for Arroyo and Phillips if you could also bring in Halladay/Lackey?
would definitely say yes.
I’d probably trade Pelfry from Arroyo and Phillips without Hallada/Lackey.
No. I’m not trading Pelf,
unless hes the centerpiece
to bringing back Hallady.
I’d like Hallady 1st
And if Not
I want Lackey.
Piniero isn’t a terrible move
if combined w/bringing in an
Arroyo type.
Don’t really want Wolf or Marquis.
Wolf is better than Oliver Perez Pineiro.
I totally agree on Pelf though. No way I trade him just yet…after one more mediocre year, maybe, but right now, only in a deal for Halladay. Or King Felix.
Pelfrey concerns me alot. The guy literally has one pitch! He can’t strike out anybody, and while i said it myself yesterday that k’s aren’t everything in this park, Pelf can’t put anyone away. He had alot of 0-2 k games this season and still has some control problems. Feasibly, a good hitter could draw a walk whenever they wanted off Pelf. I think if he could ever stay healthy, Maine is the much better pitcher of the two for what it’s worth.
I think there are quite a few I would trade him for straight up. LOL. But yeah as far as what could be available. I would not trade him for JUST Arroyo but when you add Phillips it makes me think. Perhaps the Tigers also would be someone you would think about with Pelfrey if it brought back the right return.
Arroyo is basically what we hope Pelfrey becomes. A #3 starter that ends up with a high 3’s to low 4’s ERA, decent WHIP and a lot of innings. Guys had 5 years straight of over 200 innings. He is basically a younger Derek Lowe.
Phillips solves our 2B problems and adds offense.
What’s his salary situation this year? Cot’s baseball contracts have him getting paid 0.5M this year, but he got paid 2.2M last year.
Yeah, salary glitch for him this year. He signed a contract right out of the draft that paid him through last year but ended up leaving him with 1 year of non arbitration eligible status left. Next year he goes into arbitration I think.
so his salary will be 0.5M in 2010.
Yup and then arbitration for 2011
So who’s seeing New Moon at midnight?
BOOOOOOOO!
Tomorrow
Oh I’ll have seen it twice by then. I just can’t get enough of those sparkly vampires!
I have an excuse, my wife is dragging me. Plus, I’m tired of seeing Twilight.
They’re ok. I prefer True Blood vamps, though I really liked the softball scene.
I’m being sarcastic. The only way I’d see either of those movies is if you drag my cold, dead body to the theater.
I do enjoy True Blood though!
Again, I’d be very careful moving guys like Pelf,Parnell or Murphy
too quickly based on what happened this past season. Remember what a mess it was and how little help
they rec’d from the much higher paid
veterans whos job it was to be our
main guys. All are young,talented and
cheap. They were also all guys who a yr ago none of us would have dealt
unless the bounty rec’d was huge
and came w/o question marks.
Pelfrey I agree with. Parnell and Murphy are spare parts to me.
Parnell was never very good as a minor leaguer. I wouldn’t hesitate to move him.
Whatever happened to Nieve? He started out very promising and got injured. Any news on him? I think it’ll be interesting to bring him for ST invite.
He’s arbitration eligible after the 2010 season and through 2013. So if they want him, he’s with the team for a few more years. Not sure about his injury though.
Hes on the 40man so he should be there.
b/t/w,TRS really hit the nail on the head with Arroyo,he is
basically a poor mans Derek Lowe….except he ain’t poor.
But very similar Pitchers.
#3s disguised as #2s who at times are sold as #1s.
But he is only signed for 1 year 11 million with a 2 million buyout. So he is Lowe, 5 years younger and a total of 34 million cheaper.
I agree 100% (surprise!) that getting Arroyo on a salary move is a way, way better idea than going after Lowe. Heck, it is a fine idea no matter what else they do.
Nieve and Figgy should also be in the mix for the #5 spot and at least kept in the pen.
Figgy should be right back down at AAA to be the AAAA player that he is.
Kong, I am confused: Do you want Halladay, or Lackey? I don’t think you make it clear enough (j/k of course).
a coupole of quibbles/questions:
1) If you unload all that talent for Halladay, you can forget about getting any other real talent via trade (like Philips). it will be a 1 trade and done off season, since you won’t be inposition to trade quality prospects for a good, cheap player, and won’t have any payroll left (after the extension and filling minor holes) to trade for a salary dump.
So, it would likely be Halladay + Molina + a bunch of guys already here (pagan, murphy, etc. for the offense)
2) How do you see this as a “make the playoffs in 2010 + try to win a WS in 2011″. Unless I am isinterpreting that, it sounds like you see 2010 as a stepping stone to a better 2011?
If anything, this trade goes backward from that. You better be winning the WS in 2010, since every year the chances likely go down, since nothing salary wise comes off the books after 2010, you can expect to fill any holes with rookies, or carry over guys that will be 1 year older (beltrans knees, halladays arm)
So, pretty much you are going “all in” on 2010 - 2011 (same as the phils, with some of their contracts), with 2012 looking to be an implosion year, with Beltran gone, Reyes gone if he wants to be, and Halladay 35 with about a million miles on his arm.
Why do you not have money for a salary dump? You got 32 million to spend. Halladay very well could only cost his current contract this season (16ish) but even at 20M you still have money.
You don’t think Roy is coming to the mets to pitch for a piddling 16million, do you?
Assuming as reported (not that I think it is the best for the team) he wants a contract extension to OK the deal, expect him to make his Johan moey starting in 2010.
so, 23/24 mill off your 32 leaves ~8 (be generous, 10) to play with, and every other hole to fill.
so even if you go with the cheap in house options currently on the team (and of course, have am ediocre team with 2 good SPs), you don’t have budget for a 10mill+ salary dump.
ANd I doubt Cinncinati will consider giving Pilips at 7 or so away for Toby Stoner just to save money.
He very well could leave his 2010 salary in place and then go for 23 the next 5 years.
LOL!
Stick, I disagree on both counts….If the Reds truly want to dump salary–and reports on the truth of this are conflicting–then we may very well be able to pick up Phillips and/or Arroyo for less than we might imagine.
And I feel that we certainly would be competitive in 2010 with Halladay and 150+ game, standard 2006–2008 production from Reyes, Wright and Beltran. I think that we have a lot of question marks who could be destined for improvement or replacement by the end of 2010, like Pelf, Maine, Ollie, Parnell, Murphy, Thole, and Francoeur.
My thinking is that if all of the above guys play near their top level of performance, we will be right in the thick of things next year with Halladay. If this does not happen, I feel that the Johan/Halladay duo, with another year’s improvements and changes, will make us a potential powerhouse in 2011.
To me, getting Halladay is so huge that I would do it even if it is the one “big” move this offseason and we do not do better than Cameron or even Pagan for LF. I would take the risk of waiting one more year to win it all if it meant getting Halladay.
Agreed. To me Halladay is an elite and you pay what it takes in trade and salary to get it done. That is also why I am NOT in on doing the same for Holliday or Lackey as they are NOT elites. They are nice players that fill holes but I want my big money longterm contracts saved for the elite.
plus you get the thrill of knowing that if he pulls a Schmidt and comes up lame by 2011, the team will fall into an early 80s level of suckitude, with a giant payroll and a lousy team!
where though do these changes/improvements for 2011 come from? Payroll will be maxed out once you put the 2010 team on the field, and no big contracts expire at year end.
Then, Halladay jumps to +/- 25 mill, DW and reyes get more expensive, and any arb guys go up (like Pelf). Heck, even if you can snag philips (a great move IMO) he jumps ~5mill
Unless you think any carry overs get better (murphy? Frenchy?) or a rookie steps in big (whoops, any of the closer ones got traded to Toronto with anyones missed going to Cinn., so scrap that).
Payroll is not MAXED out. It would depend on what you did in LF and 1B this year with Halladay. IF Halladay cost say 22 million you had at least 10 million left this year and perhaps more the following.
Sorry I missed the part about also bringing in those 2 from Cincy. No that most likely would not happen but you could then think about trading a guy like Reyes or Beltran or Phillips/Arroyo if a guy develops.
I think it is entirely possible that Thole could be ready in 2011 to be a serious MLB catcher. Davis might be ready for 1B. Maine might continue the promise and improvement he showed his first couple of years here. Parnell could develop into a serious pitcher. If we keep Murph, he could get better next year and possibly improve even more in 2011.
These are just a few of the relatively low-cost improvements we might see in 2011.
As for not getting Halladay due to fear of him getting hurt, in my opinion that is not a good way to think…anyone could get hurt anytime…we should pass on the chance to add one of the best pitchers of his era because he might get hurt?
again, likely davis and thole dont exist any more in the Mets system. You traded them away, remember?
Thole, Davis, FMart, Mejia, Holt. No way all five go, and there are a few others the Jays might like.
I guess whichever we keep become the ones who become co-MVPs in 2011.
Ok. Here’s something I’ve pulled quickly (little slow day at work) for 2010 salary requirement. Most of the big salaries are what was in Cot’s contract. Other smaller raises and minimum salaries are what I’ve put in. And I was pretty generous. Also, at the bottom i’ve put in MISC additional 5M. The total salary requirement is slightly below 120M. The luxury tax I believe is at 170. Sorry if some alignments are off.
Santana, Johan lhp-s $21,000,000
Beltran, Carlos cf $20,071,429
Perez, Oliver lhp-s $12,000,000
Rodriguez, Francisco rhp $12,166,667
Wright, David 3b $10,250,000
Reyes, Jose ss $9,375,000
Castillo, Luis 2b $6,250,000
Francoeur, Jeff rf $4,000,000
Maine, John rhp-s $3,000,000
Pelfrey, Mike rhp-s $500,000
Tatis, Fernando 3b-of $2,000,000
Feliciano, Pedro lhp $2,000,000
Sullivan, Cory of $1,000,000
Figueroa, Nelson rhp $1,000,000
Pagan, Angel of $1,000,000
Green, Sean rhp $1,000,000
Nieve, Fernando rhp $500,000
Stokes, Brian rhp $500,000
Evans, Nick of $500,000
Broadway, Lance rhp $500,000
Murphy, Dan lf $500,000
Bowman, Shawn 3b $500,000
Egbert, Jack rhp $500,000
Martinez, Fernando of $500,000
Misch, Pat lhp $500,000
Kunz, Eddie rhp $500,000
Niese, Jon lhp $500,000
Parnell, Bobby rhp $500,000
Santos, Omir c $500,000
Thole, Josh c-1b $500,000
Putz, J.J. $1,000,000
MISC $5,000,000
TOTAL $119,613,096
I did not include following: Redding, Reed, Anderson Hernandez, Arturo Lopez(who’s this?), A Reyes, Tobi Stoner, Valdez. The minor league guys I don’t know who to put and who not to put, so I’ve just randomly excluded some, but they can all be in the MISC. 0.5M guys got paid 418,000 last year, so after the raise I figure .5M is pretty generous there. Total number of players are 30. I’m sure I’ve forgot in include some, but 120M sounds right to me.
This means, Mets have about 45-50M cushion before paying luxury tax. OR they would have 30M to get back to last year’s payroll. If my math is right, Mets should not have any problem signing at least ONE big name FA if not more.
They have 28-32 million to spend to match last year’s payroll and your entire 40 man counts towards luxury tax as well as signing bonuses and averaged out contracts. Example Johan would count as 23.25 million instead of 21 and Wright would count as 13 instead of 10.
So based on last years reports that they were about 5-10 million from the luxury tax and it increased 8 million this year. So if the Mets match last year’s payroll they would have 13-18 million left before reaching the threshold.
To compute it, Major League Baseball uses the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters and adds benefits.
good point. i forgot about that.
so in total, before reaching the luxury tax threshold, they have 40-50M correct?
Well, MAYBE?
It depends on if they count those salaries as an average of when it was signed or now. Wright’s would be much higher if they just count what is remaining. I think they make the system so no common man can figure it out. Just like the Fed. Tax codes. Also it includes benefits. LOL.
My plan would be to get Halladay (16M) and sign 2nd tier LF and C. Guys like Cameron, Ankiel, or Nady(healthy) would be great choices. Say they take up something like 8M. And then sign a decent hitting catcher, you’d have a decent line up.
Reyes
Louis
Beltran
Wright
Fenchy
Cameron/Ankiel/Nady(healthy)
Murphy
Catcher
Mets probably won’t have a big power bat like AGonz, but #3-#6 can all hit 25HRs, all have decent speed and good defense.
Lets say it’s Halladay at 20 and the Mets agree to spend 35. You could get Wolf and one of those OF and a backup catcher for that amount.
that would be even better. Mets would obviously need to add some more arms for the bullpen.
In that scenario Maine would go to the pen to setup I guess.
I think I’ve been pretty clear on this but to sum up:
- I would welcome either Lackey or Halladay with open arms.
- Halladay is clearly better but at a higher cost in both money and prospects/players sent away. Does his acquisition hamstring the team financially and in filling future roster vacancies either directly or via trade too much? I don’t know, but I worry it might.
- The only ways I feel that Wolf/Pineiro/Marquis fit in is either as a secondary acquisition to Lackey/Halladay or assuming a quantum leap in Pelfrey, Maine or Perez. Can one safely assume any one of them will make that leap?
- Omar has demonstrated he is a big move guy, it will surprise me if the Mets are not serious players for one of Halladay via trade or Lackey/Holliday/Bay via free agency. Where I worry is what does he do other than that.
- Brandon Phillips was just on ESPN 1050 and while he was diplomatic and said all the right things he sounded very excited at the possibility of becoming a Met specifically and playing in NYC in general. He spoke about how he always plays hard but also noted he gets up more for games in big markets with passionate fans and specifically noted how it’s harder to motivate when playing the Pirates. He considers himself the second best 2B in baseball behind only Chase Utley.
- Allen Iverson will be a Knick shortly after 6:00pm tonight. I would be a lot more excited about that if it were 2001.
I am not sure Halladay’s salary hamstrings them anymore than Lackey? If Lackey is getting 5/90 and Halladay 6/120ish? Not that much of a difference. Yes it cost some prospects but as long as you can keep Davis or Fmart then at least there is a chance LF or 1B gets filled internally.
Something to think about with the contract for either gentleman. You have pointed out many times, play the market, what is the market, market market market. You have said that if the market plays out a certain way you envision the possibility of Lackey as a Met for 4/64 or thereabouts.
If the Mets trade for Halladay and get an exclusive window, what is the likelihood they could get Halladay for 4/64? There will be no market there will only be his demands in acceptance for foregoing free agency. He is unlikely to accept anything less than a Burnett type deal or he’ll simply hit the open market a year from now.
IOW the Mets MAY be able to use the market to their advantage with Lackey, that won’t be possible with Halladay.
No Halladay would take in my opinion at least 5/100 but in my opinion he is 36 million and 1 more year better than Lackey.
I think that 20-23 million for 5 years IS Halladay’s market, he is just that much better than Lackey. I never said that you should not go over market value EVER. I stick by my guns that you should only do it for the elite players. The Tex’s, CC’s, Johan’s, Pujols’, Mauer… NOT the Lackey’s, Holliday’s, Lowe’s.
I understand your position on paying elites versus non-elites.
But how does Lackey, if the market plays out in the Mets favor and they get him on the cheap as you have suggested it might (not that it will of course, but it might) hamstring the Mets as much as 1 more year and $36 mil more and loss of players? I don’t see it.
The only way that 4/64 happens Grave is in the perfect world. That’s like saying in the perfect world we get Halladay for Fmart, Niese, Tejada and Gee and then he signs an extension for 6/120 leaving 2010 at 16M.
I continue to stand that at 4/64 Lackey is worth it. At 5/90 he is not.
I don’t disagree with anything you just said.
But with Lackey the possibility of the stars aligning and him coming “cheap” is possible.
With Halladay he is getting the top dollar or he’s not coming. It’s pretty cut and dried I believe.
So the Mets can play the market and as you have been suggesting all along either get Lackey at their price or pass. They can only get Halladay at HIS price, and the cost of players too.
That’s why I can’t agree with your assessment above that Lackey hamstrings the Mets as much as Halladay. The Mets can choose to not hamstring themselves with Lackey or not. If they go Halladay, no choice.
If they overpay for Lackey it does. That is still the point. So regardless of Halladay or not, forgetting him for just a moment. 4/64 for Lackey is a good deal and 5/90 is an atrocious deal.
Now back to Halladay, considering he is an elite I go for him and overpay. Yes in the long run it may hurt but it is worth it because he is just that good.
OK, understood.
I am searching for what in my subjective opinion is the player who provides the best balance of risk/reward.
I look at the Wolfs and Marquis and Pineiros, if they are brought in as “the” pitching acquisition, as not enough risk.
I look at Halladay as tilting toward too much risk.
Lackey is the bed Goldilocks chooses after passing on the others IMO. Then 3 angry bears eat her.
And see to me Lackey at anything more than 4/64 is a huge risk.
And see to me Lackey at anything more than 4/64 is a huge risk. Let me try and explain it this way.
To me the difference in Halladay and Lackey is equal to that in Lackey and Wolf/Marquis.
I disagree. I think the diff between Lackey and Wolf/etc is greater and that given the Mets current rotation those others just don’t help enough (on their own).
I think Lackey helps enough. I think Halladay helps more than enough.
There, we’ve worked with each other to find the crux of our disagreement.
We’re good people.
I agree in terms of JUST our situation and the Mets ONLY adding Lackey/Halladay/Wolf.
However in pure terms of just a pitcher to me that the case
Halladay is an A pitcher, Lackey a B pitcher and Wolf a C pitcher.
I fear we are circling around something again.
Pure terms, such as Halladay is an A, Lackey is a B, or I will only overpay for elite talent, work wonderfully in their own pure term environment.
I’m not sure they function quite as well in just the Mets specific situation.
Eh, oh well. We lost this one.
Brandon Phillips would be a great addition. And I completely agree with you on Wolf/Pineiro/Marquis.
Sounds like we all agree pitching is the #1 priority. But does Omar know that?
Depends. I think he knows pitching is the top if he can get Halladay or if Lackey is reasonable. If Lackey starts realizing that 5/90 then I don’t think we will go there.
I would disagree. Obviously Halladay is the #1 choice even with giving up prospects and $$. But if Halladay goes elsewhere, I think you would have to overpay to get Lackey. Give him his 5/90. Otherwise, Mets would have to change their strategy to become an offensive team.
Or they just get two other pitchers and offense and look into the trade market. It’s just not worth it to spend elite money on a non elite player and sacrifice 5 years for hopes of 1.
Think the Braves would not want to redo that Lowe deal?
Only if by redo you mean not do at all.
Yeah, LOL that’s what I meant.
But I think that’s a different situation. Lowe is older and is not as good as Lackey. Lackey is still young and has a lot more upside than Lowe was last year.
Not really, Lackey could get paid much more than Lowe and has been injured to start the season for 2 years in a row. Also, how exactly does Lackey at his age have UPside. He is at this point what he is?
Pitching had better be the #1 priority. I just cannot imagine Omar is thinking he can get someone like Holliday and some pieces for the ST and call it a day. If so, then he’s not the baseball ‘mind’ he and others claim he is.
We need a solid #2, minimum, IMO. Without that, even if we pick up a couple of pieces for the ST, I think we’re going nowhere with several 4 and 5’s and no #2.
With a solid rotation, you win games by keeping the opposition off the board. With a less than solid rotation, your offense then has to continually score more runs than your pitchers are giving up. And we all saw how the former worked out in 2008….
I agree and would add, as long as Luis Castillo is still a Met getting pitchers who have a good combination of striking guys out and giving up more fly balls than ground balls is a better way to go.
That’s why I think guys like Marquis or Pineiro, who don’t miss many bats and get lots of groundballs, would be a disaster here. With Brandon Phillips at 2B, less so.
Then Lowe would have been a disaster. LOL.
He would’ve been, yes. I was not aware of just how much Castillo’s fielding had eroded a year ago at this time and none of us were aware that Reyes would miss so much time. Now that I am aware, I no longer endorse GB/ball in play pitching acquisitions, not until an upgrade at 2B is made.
Good point. The fielding behind the pitchers…. I I believe that was part of Pelfry’s problem last year. Guys were getting on base, sometimes due to the less than stellar fielding with the triple A team we had, and Pelfry just seemed to develop a bigger problem last year of pitching from the stretch. Not sure why that was…..
I won’t pretend to know how they calculate it but fangraphs keeps a stat called FIP which is “Fielding Independent Pitching on an ERA basis” and his regular ERA was 5.03, his FIP was 4.39 last year.
To be fair to the fielders, and to demonstrate my own lack of understanding of the FIP stat, Johan Santana’s ERA was 3.13 but his FIP was 3.79.
That’s great about Iverson…just in time to help escort the Nets to 0–13, and send them on their annual Thanksgiving Hell west coast trip with the all-time worst start of 0-17 in clear view.
But Iverson is absolutely perfect for the Knicks–a star past his prime with a very bad attitude. The Knicks really would be like the Yankees, if the Yankees finished 5th every year.
And I SO agree with this: “The only ways I feel that Wolf/Pineiro/Marquis fit in is either as a secondary acquisition to Lackey/Halladay….”
Halladay is the best guy, no question.
I am not a car expert so this may not be the best analogy, but I look at Halladay as the Ferrari, Lackey as the BMW and those other guys as Hyundais. The Mets already have a Ferrari, a Beemer would fit nicely in the 5 car garage but I won’t complain about a second Ferrari.
Hyundais are good cars, I’m not maligning them. They are well made and affordable. But they don’t give you the kind of performance a Ferrari or even a BMW will give you.
Right but you can by 10 Hyundais for 1 Ferrari. So when one breaks you just drive another one. So I would have one Ferrari I parked in the garage and then 10 pieces of junk that I abused.
4th place, ja ja ja.
That’s the life I lead buddy.
welcome back Alex!
LOL. Forgot about that name!!
LOL !
But you can only fit so many cars in that garage (i.e. have so many guys on the roster), so having 10 Hyundais ready to go when one fails is not likely to be an option…..
Sure it is. Why would you park a Hyundais in a garage? LOL.
Hyundais don’t get you hot chics and certainly don’t let you hit a HR =)
great re: Phillips, but gotta figure at $6M in 2010, the Reds will want something significant in return or taking a bad contract with him. The latter would hurt the Mets ability to fill other holes.
10
$6.75 Phillips
$11-$12M Arroyo or Harang
Total
$18M plus
If you only add Lackey at $16M then we’re up to $34M. If somehow you could get rid of Castillo w/o paying any salary, we’re back down to $28M w/ some room to marginally improve LF,1B, or C.
If we are able to trade for Doc, then add at least $4M, but you’d have to imagine we have enough prospects for both trades.
IMO, it’s not worth it. I’d rather trade or overpay for elite players like Doc. The other holes can be filled via FA w/ the many guys that still won’t have a job next Jan.
I’m not sure I’m particularly impressed with Phillips’s admission that he has trouble motivating for games against bad teams.
For a team that missed the playoffs by one game in two consecutive seasons, I’d like to win games against the Pirates too.
Fair point. I am hoping that it would be offset by his being with NY instead of with Cincy.
Interesting point. That could just be lobbying to get to NY? Players often say dumb things like that. Example all the closers with their I can’t get motivated to setup crap.
Good article from Gammons about the Phish with a couple Mets comparisons:
Marlins aren’t your typical small-market team
Thursday, November 19, 2009 | Print Entry
This is not about the Mets, who endured what seemed like three years’ worth of injuries in 2009, and whose farm system is better than credited. It is about the Marlins and their seven-year record vis-à-vis their divisional rivals in New York, not to mention the Braves and the fact that they’ve finished ahead of Atlanta each of the last two seasons.
This is about owner Jeffrey Loria figuring out how to cope with a small market and — until the last few months — no hope of a real ballpark. He tied up one of the game’s best general managers, Larry Beinfest, and his baseball board of directors — Mike Hill, Dan Jennings, Jim Fleming, Stan Meek, et al. — to long-term contracts and enabled them to use scouting and development to try to consistently compete with big-market teams. The Marlins have had the lowest payrolls in the National League each of the last four years; the $104M for those four years was $45M less than the Mets’ 2009 payroll.
And as Chris Coghlan won the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year and anyone who follows Florida starts thinking about Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton competing for the award the next couple of seasons, take a look at the Marlins’ relative seven year success:
MARLINS VS. METS (2003-09)
Marlins Mets
Record 577-556 564-569
Winning seasons 5 4
Postseason wins 11 6
World Series titles 1 0
Payroll $237M $817M
Rookies of the Year 3 0
While you can go to the Marlins’ Web site and see their new park peering up out of the Miami earth and they talk about the focus on its 2012 opening, the fact remains that they are coming off a season in which they finished second in a division with two of the five highest payrolls in baseball and truly believe it was, overall, a disappointing year. Hanley Ramirez should probably be runner-up to Albert Pujols in the MVP. Josh Johnson is now in the elite starter category. Chris Coghlan is their third rookie of the year in seven years; most significant, he is their first homegrown, since Dontrelle Willis came from the Cubs and Ramirez from Boston.
Now, once again Beinfest and company have to weave some fiscal magic. Jeremy Hermida and his $2.5M-plus salary have been moved on to Boston. Dan Uggla, whose arbitration numbers will jump off his $5.35M award last February, will be traded. Reliever Kiko Calero (60 IP, 36 H, 69 K) is on the free-agent market and may be gone.
But if Emilio Bonifacio can play second base and improve his .303 on-base percentage, the Marlins pretty much know who and what they are going to be in 2010. Cody Ross(.270, 24 HR), Cameron Maybin and Coghlan are going to be the outfield, that is unless Stanton or Arizona Fall League light Bryan Petersen makes a spring leap and Coghlan moves in to second. Jorge Cantu will be at third, Ramirez at short, and first base will come down to Morrison (whose .411 on-base percentage in Double-A was impressive coming off a hand injury after being the Florida State and AFL MVPs) or Gaby Sanchez.
Are they the Phillies? No, but in the NL East, they still won 87 games and finished ahead of everyone but Philadelphia.
And their pitching can be much better than it was, one reason Randy St. Claire was imported as pitching coach. Johnson is a given, 15-5 and Cy Young material. But after so much promise exhibited in 2008, their starters regressed to a 4.57 ERA and more quality starts than only the Astros, Brewers and Nationals. They strongly believe that Ricky Nolasco will be more consistent than what got him sent back to the minors and totaled a 5.06 ERA, and that Chris Volstad is better than 9-13, 5.21. They need more than 16 starts from Anibal Sanchez and see a good future for Sean West.
Then there’s Andrew Miller, who on paper seems a disappointment — 14 starts, a 4.84 ERA. He struggled with aligning his delivery more direct to home plate, and continued some of the inconsistencies in the Arizona Fall League.
“People forget how young Miller is [24],” says Beinfest. “The talent and stuff are there, no doubt about it. I really believe he is a victim of being rushed to the big leagues [in his first full pro season out of North Carolina], and he hasn’t yet regained the confidence he had in college. He had the knee problem. He got rushed. He’s tried to make adjustments in his delivery. He hasn’t settled into a situation where he can regain that confidence.”
Last season, Miller started two games in the Gulf Coast League, one in the Florida State League, three in the International League, 14 in the big leagues. He had three strong starts in June, then the wheels came off. But if he puts it back together, with Johnson, Nolasco, et al., they can present one of the league’s best rotations.
They have anointed Leo Nunez closer, and hope to add a veteran or two to go with Brian Sanches, Dan Meyer and Matt Lindstrom.
The Marlins are a lesson for the Mets, but, then again, so are the self-developed Phillies and Braves. They don’t worry about talk radio or back pages or the blogosphere, they concern themselves with scouting, development and the judgment of a baseball board of directors with a solid history. One never hears Beinfest whine about his market or his payroll, he moves forward and awaits the arrival of Morrison and Stanton and Peterson, and he does so with the consent of Loria.
One general manager calls the Marlins “the Outliers,” and they may be. Do they do everything right? Of course not; they wish they’d taken Jason Heyward instead of Matt Dominguez, but then Heyward lasted halfway through the first round that year.
But in this half-decade of the widening gulf between the smart large-market teams that have figured out all the scouting, development and coaching layers their revenues can fund and the small markets further squeezed by the economy, what has happened in South Florida remains an anomaly.
It’s bad enough to have the Yankees and Phillies staring at them, but the fact remains that in the last seven years the Mets have won fewer games and had fewer winning seasons than the Marlins. And that in 2008 and 2009 the Braves won fewer games than the Marlins.
They are Warren Buffett’s kind of team. Run right.
They also can’t buy a fan. Why because every year that they develop a marketable star they trade them away. Think about it. All that success and no one shows up to the games.
maybe the wilpons should forget about the FA market, and just buy the marlins, then switch rosters and FO personnel?
THis was a joke, BTW.
I think their attendance and by extension their bottom line is strongly impacted by their daily rainstorms.
I’ve been to one game there in my life. It featured the biggest, coldest, cheapest Heinekens I’ve ever enjoyed, and a 2 1/2 hour rain delay. I left during it, and in hindsight was glad I did because they blew out the Mets.
Once they have a stadium with a roof, their fans won’t have to worry about getting soaked and waiting hours in delays. With the South Beach nightlife they still won’t lead the league in attendance, but they’ll have more fannies in the seats, more money in their coffers and hold onto more players.
We will see Grave. In my opinion the trade all your stars, stink, rebuild, get good, trade all your stars, stink… method will always produce a lack of fans.
getting fans will be much easier if the new place has a roof.
someone should have told the twins that too!
I don’t disagree with that statement at all, despite having had conversations with Met fans at the old place who firmly supported the WS/suck/WS/suck philosophy.
I just believe that they won’t run the team that way anymore when they have better attendance and more income, and I think they’ll get that with the new Jimmy Buffet Dome.
Then the pressure will then be on to entice those guys to stay and actually make good decisions on contracts and weigh giving up draft picks etc for signing FA and not getting as many top picks anymore.
Yea I am more in line with their issues being weather and stadium issues. That place looks like the worst place to see a game and supposedly it is difficult to get to. They also AVR the worst walk up attendance and this is always blamed on the weather.
If any team can put a consistent winning team while keeping the cost low, they fans won’t care less who is wearing the uniforms. The Mets have their own musical chair issues, they just don’t replenish remotely as well.
Hmm, I don’t think that is true. They don’t even get fans to show up when they are good. We will see.
I have written again and again that Omar’s top target every year should be hiring absolutely anyone who scouts for the Marlins.
Yeah, true. But maybe we could actually hold on to them. Anyone who uses them to say that is who the Wilpons should model their “business” after though is loony.
well, enough of trying to be the devil’s advocate (voice of reason? Wet blanket?) for 1 thread. I think my point was clear that assuming halladya guts the farm and gets a johan+ contract, it really does represent pushing a ton of chips into the middle of the table.
But, my predeiction is, if Omar does this deal, it will be like after 2007 and Johan. Don’t expect much else.
Probably end up with Molina to catch, maybe a pen arm, but other than that, pretty much the same team back from september except at SS.
Pagan, Frenchy, Murphy likely being all starters, and the big 3 of ollie/pelf/miane rounding out the rotation.
IOW, what you saw last september, with Doc, Bengie and Jose added.
I largely agree, and perhaps you’re implying this but I’ll add that I think there will be other differences, but they’ll be the kind that many people mock and they’ll be 23rd-25th man type differences in the $600,000 - $2,000,000 range.
Essentially the 2010 versions of Cory Sullivan and Alex Cora, whoever they might be.
So do you honestly think that if they go out and get Lackey then they would bring in a lot more than if they got Halladay? I don’t.
I don’t have as much of a problem with Murphy for one more year as the starting 1st baseman as I do with Pagan being the starting LF.
IMO, Pagan is a very good 4th outfielder who should not be considered a starting OF on a contending team unless the other two OFs are much better than qualified. Right now, only Beltran qualifies.
That and Pagan seems to have a problem staying healthy for an entire year.
I still don’t see why Murphy gets a pass and Pagan does not. They both made about the same amounts of mental errors, stat wise both played a decent UZR and Pagan was a MUCH better hitter.
For me the reason I am more likely to give Murphy as opposed to Pagan a pass is Pagan is 28 with 267 ML games and 640 MiL games under his belt whereas Murphy is 24 with 204 ML games and 259 MiL games experience.
I understand that point. However, to me things like baserunning errors on last year’s team has to be taken with a grain of salt as the entire team had difficulties. To me Pagan is the more skilled player.
I’m not sure what “more skilled” implies. I do know Pagan has more speed.
Pagan has had more opportunity to learn how to play the game both within the Mets org and outside it, and yet didn’t show that at all.
In my subjective recall, Pagan and Murphy were the poster boys of poor decision making and poor execution, and given the difference in their experience coming into last season I have to blame Pagan more for his own failures than I do Murphy for his.
But again, what about how bad guys like Wright, Reyes and Beltran ran the bases? To me it’s impossible to judge how bad Pagan is on the bases because of last year.
I think Pagan is for sure at this point more skilled and his stats last year show that.
Two of your 3 examples were injured and perhaps running more gingerly because of it.
I can’t even recall Reyes running the bases at all.
Some of all of their mistakes, Pagan included, can be put on Razor Shines IMO, but even so Pagan stood out as just bad IMO.
Pagan wasn’t just a bonehead on the basepaths, despite his UZR he made bad throws and to incorrect bases too.
I also recall none other than Keith Hernandez praising Murphy for his baserunning, for his understanding of OF placement and when to take the extra base. I heard no such praise for the speedier Pagan.
As far as his stats last year, it’s an obvious outlier compared with his previous numbers so it remains to be seen if he has found it or if he had a career year.
There are multiple examples of Pagan running the bases like a clueless fool, half the time without a clue as to the number of outs or the situation.
There are maybe one or two examples from the other guys, and with the exception of Beltran’s non-slide and Wright’s lollygagging around 3B (also for Razor) I’m not sure you can attribute any of their other boneheadedness to anything but overzealousness.
As it also remains to be seen if Murphy will ever be a guy who can post even an OPS as high as Pagan last year.
I am not saying either one is ideal. I just don’t understand the notion of dismissing one and praising the other. They are both gigantic question marks and if one has to start to me it’s up in the air which one it should be and could go either way. So go after they guy you want in LF and 1B and move based on which one you can get.
In 752 career at bats, Pagan’s career OBP is .331.
In 639 career at bats, Murphy’s is… .331.
Pagan had a .340 minor league OBP in 2531 at bats.
Murphy had a .352 minor league OBP in 957 at bats.
Murphy is 4 years younger than Pagan and has 1700 fewer professional at bats but has still managed to produce the same OBP at the major league level.
Why do we have any reason to be any surer of Pagan than Murphy?
Which brings me back to the age and experience point which from what I can gather you disagree with.
Editing my comment now that I see Wanny in between to include “what Wanny said.”
As far as OPS (since I misread the original post).
Murphy had the higher career minor league OPS and their career major league OPSs are 768 for Murphy and 774 for Pagan.
We need to stop loving Pagan so much.
Wanny I know there are a lot of comments on here and even I am getting confused but I said the following:
“They are both gigantic question marks and if one has to start to me it’s up in the air which one it should be and could go either way.”
I am just saying based on what we have to go on we should not just give the 1st base job to Murphy but then say Pagan is not good enough for LF.
Based on that it appears as well we also need to stop loving Murphy so much. They are both huge question marks and neither are good enough. One has to be upgraded but why does it have to be Pagan instead of Murphy?
It could be because only one of them can’t count to two outs, has never learned how/when to tag up and is always hurt.
I agree. However, I think the mindset on Murph is he’s a kind of place holder for one year (Ike Davis).
With plugging Pagan in for LF, once again we’ve bypassed getting a real LF and I’m afraid they won’t be seeing him as a temp solution but rather a longer term one.
Plus, with Pagan as starting LF, I think that instantly makes the Pagan type replacement filling in for Beltran (if he hits the DL) and/or Pagan having to share RF with Francoeur (if he comes back down to earth)…much more weak.
I’d like Pagan to be the 4th OF just because he’s a really decent hitter, can also play all 3 positions and fields a passable CF.
Only thing is if we get Lackey or Halladay then most likely we are not getting a real LF anyway.
I don’t know - you really think Omar doesn’t realize he needs to get someone for LF? He’s not going to just get a SP, catcher, maybe a BP arm and call it day, will he?
I still think we need to get another real OF. Doesn’t necessarily have to be star quality. Just someone solid with good defensive skills and a decent bat.
I don’t know if they’re still thinking FMart will be an OF in 2011 or not - if he’s still here.
If we get Lackey or Halladay then to me it’s Byrd or Cameron types in LF and to me those are place holders that may not even be as productive as Pagan.
Why not?
You know why Fongy. There are only really 2 REAL LF on the market in Bay and Holliday and they most likely won’t spend 36+ million on 2 players this offseason.
Alot of assumtions there.Murphy just a place holder?
So,he wont improve
following his first full season?
Ike Davis though,is an automatic? Some of you guys a flat out funny and fickle.
Many of the same who argued Murph was the second coming of Mattingly a yr ago @ this time,now make him out to be a bum AND
b/c Davis was good,not great but good @ AA for a couple
months,now HES
the second coming.
Wow!
Hey don’t plug in either one of us here. I never wanted Murphy to start in LF and realized chances are that he would not be even solid much less a star.
I think she is referring to the perspective of the Mets and not necessarily her own.
Exactly. I guess I should have made that clearer.
Didn’t say Murph would not improve. Didn’t say Davis is an automatic. I’m saying the FO might be thinking that Davis will be the starting 1st of 2011.
Come on, Fongy - I never even implied Murph was a bum.
I’m just saying that after that debacle of naming him the starting LF last year, I’d like to see a REAL corner OF this year.
And to me we are making that same mistake of just announcing him 1B. At least he can field it better than LF but the questions about his offense are just as bad.
I guess my question is why not upgrade 1B with LaRoche and let Pagan play LF. Same cost. Then if Davis is ready next year he can play LF/RF as those are positions he can play too. I am not saying that is what I would do. I am asking why is that not an option but placing Murphy’s struggling bat back in the lineup is?
I advocated LaRouch(and wilson)while the Bucs were conducting their annual fire sale in July only to be rebuffed by the Omar assurances that the troops would be coming over the hill and no reinforcments were needed. But is Larouche much of an improvement over Murphy? Really?
Is Byrd much of an improvement over Pagan?
IMO, it’s cause:
1. Pagan is more valuable as 4th OFer than Murphy as bench player. Pagan would be used more and serves as a replacement for any of the OFers, while Murphy would only replace the 1B.
2. There’s more/better LF options than 1B options.
Maybe you are right. A LaRoche or Overbay w/ Pagan is just as good as Cameron w/ Murphy.
I think it is Case. I think there will be a few guys at 1B or LF on short 1-3 year deals at 8 million or less. I just don’t see why we accept Murphy but slot Pagan as a 4th OF guy when Pagan outperformed Murphy last year.
Murphy I think his only value in the future will be as a utility player thus let him learn to stand at 2B, 3B, LF and 1B. Pagan most likely is a 4th OF but I think he is more ready to start than Murphy.
Well, my sentiments exactly on your #1 and #2.
I’m not as convinced that LaRoche/Overbay with Pagan is better than Cameron with Murph. I guess a case could be made for each though.
Take out Bay and Holliday, who is really better?
There are no big dollar 1B out there.
Forget the fact that Davis is considered a plus fielder at 1B and has never played LF.
Has he played RF?
As a pro he has played 2 games in the OF.
He’s not projected to be all that good out there because of his size and speed. I suppose he might be adequate. But when his 6′5″ frame fills out…
Essentially yes, but hopefully not. They’d still have money to improve elswehere and you know there’ll be guys left over like Abreu and Hudson last year.
IMO, you get Doc, no need to add another SP.
Spend what’s left on any LFer (Cameron, Winn, Byrd) who’ll push Pagan to 4th OFer and replacing Castillo w/ Polanco.
Johan-Doc-Perez-Pelf-Maine/Figgy/Nieve/Niese
Reyes-Murph-Wright-Beltran-Frenchy-LF-Santos-Polanco
I agree on this point. To me your rotation is good enough at Johan/Halladay/Pelfrey/Maine/Perez but not if you switch out Halladay for Lackey then to me we need to upgrade another position with an innings guy that never gets hurt.
Wow, you really
are anti-Lackey.
I don’t get it.
Just don’t get it, TRS.
He’s just not an elite pitcher Fongy. I have said over and over he is a NICE pitcher and I would go 4/64 which is more than Lowe’s horrible contract. I would not however go 5/90 for a player who is NICE.
C’mon dude.
What in this day and age do you consider an elite pitcher?
Is he not a legit
ace on half the teams in baseball and no less than a legit two on the other half?
Halladay is an elite pitcher
Difference in an ace and an elite. Glavine was an ace for us. Guthrie with a 5.00 ERA was an ace for the O’s last year.
No argument there. I’d certainly would prefer him over anyone but it seems unlikely to me. I also dont want to give Lackey 5yrs or 20 mil per BUT your earlier post indicated that having him behind Johan wasn’t much better than having a Wolf or Marquis there. Maybe I misunderstood. But you do seem very anti-Lackey.
No not at all. I was saying that if it’s just Lackey then I would be afraid of the arm issues and the fact that he is not an elite I think we would need to bring in another guy like Marquis or Garland to account for the for sure innings. However, IMO if you bring in Halladay you can get by with Pelfrey, Perez, Maine.
And TRS, I want no part of MArlon Byrd.
Just not that good!
Understood but if we’re going down that road, how do we know Johan will Johan coming off an injury? What about
Reyes? or Beltran? All I know is Lackey hasn’t had any more significant
injuries than Hallady,is younger will
likely get a smaller contract and won’t cost 4,5 or 6 prospects.
Having said that though, I’d trade just about any group of prospects for
Doc. I think thats more than you would. Like I said though, assuming that doesn’t happen,Omar must then turn to Lackey. If his demands get
far beyond what Lowe rec’d, he must
quickly move on to Arroyo types b/f even thinking about guys like Wolf or
Marquis. Now,I have a question…..
Would you be happy w/ Lackey on a
4yr deal if Omar could then turn around a few prospects for Arroyo and
Phillips while obviously moving
Castillo for whatever as well?
I completely agree with EVERYTHING you said here.
As to your question if that deal for Lackey is 4/64 range and Arroyo and Phillips? Hell yeah. But then we would still need an LF or 1B.
Agreed! At that point though, if Castillo
can’t bring you back someone else’s p.i.t.a.
Maybe you look @ dealing Maine for the
type of guy you mentioned last wk, Luke
Scott. Not sayin’ HIM,
’cause I’m not a big fan BUT that type.
a 2nd rate OFer but who
is a legit everyday player. OR theres always the “lets see what happens w/the Mike Cameron types as far as $$$ is concerned.MAybe that type is looking for work come Feb./S.T..
As far as 1B, I’d open w/Murphy and see how things shake out w/Gonzalez in S.D..
Yeah I think you monitor guys like Willingham, look for nontenders and then look for this year’s Abreu. But do this for 1B AND LF.
I understand but would be
careful of Willingham. Multiple
herniated disks in back=
ticking time bomb.
LOL. those damn LF and 1B!!!
Good job guys, gotta go coach some basketball. Carry on.
By the way, how about instead of Holliday they get Cameron and LaRoche? Then that last argument is dead and we have a much better team.
How can we carry on? We’re all arguing with you!
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
Can you coach the Nets when Frank gets fired? We need help TRS…..
When you set the standard that low? I am sure I could.
Does anyone know if Dunn is available? He’ll definitely give you power for sure and can be had for relatively cheap price in terms of prospects or $$.
Wheres he gonna play? DH?
I’m with you here Fongy. Dunn was one of the worst defensive LF in the league and one of the worst baserunners in the league. His power which even Citi Field cannot contain is a plus, as is his OBP, but that’s it. DH was made for him.
I don’t dislike Dunn’s
bat despite all the K’s
BUT as a OFer,think
Todd Hundley…only worse.
As a 1Bman,think Mike Piazza…only worse.
I doubt he’s as bad as either one defensively. But he sure ain’t Endy Chavez in LF.
I’m a big proponent of emphasizing defense. Sometimes a guy’s bat overpowers his defensive failings. I tend to think that Dunn’s bat is one of those.
I agree Wanny….Dunn’s combo of HR and BB is so powerful that it overcomes a lot of his deficiencies.
Why are we not considering him for 1B? He would not be as bad as Piazza.
Wanny have you read this?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-dunn
I guess this and his 1.2 WAR means my sense was wrong.
Would you believe me if I said I don’t give any credence to these new fangled statistics?
Don’t wanna argue with w/you Wanny BUT on THIS,you
couldn’t be more wrong.
I’ve had a soft spot for big sluggers
since I was a kid starting
with Kong.
Matter of fact
I was a huge Rob Deer
fan. Having said that though,its tough to win with these guys.
And as far as Dunn is concerned,I like
the big HR bat BUT hes
not really a huge RBI guy given the number of HRs
hit.
And fielding,he is as bad a fielding 1B or OFer as there is in the game.I,ve seen enough of him over the yrs
especially last season when I saw alot of Nat baseball because of my interest
in recent former
Harrisburg Senators
to know that.
Comparing him to a guy like Cameron,who I’m not advocating, both
won’t hit for average,
Dunn my hit twice as many HRs BUT will only have 20more RBIs AND
Cameron is a plus base stealer and runner as well as a very well liked teammate and even teamleader.
Defensively,its day and
night.
A guy like Dunn will cost you 20to40runs a yr or
more not just b/c of errors but not getting to balls and not hitting
the cut off man etc.
Cameron is the opposite of that.He’ll save 20,30,40runs b/c of his D.
Hey wait!…
Maybe I am advocating Mike Cameron:)
I would like either–or both of them–in 2010.
Reyes/Slappy/Beltran/Wright/Dunn/Frenchy/Cameron/C/P. I like it.
Gotta throw those 100 walks in the equation Fong buddy…..Dunn walked 116 and 122 times the last two years.
I would think that in LF he can do a lot more damage than at 1B…maybe his offense DOES make up for the deficiencies if he plays 1B, but not if he plays LF.
Sorry pal, hes awful in the field!
Clearly a DH.
And I didn’t forget the BBs.
Didn’t mention them intentionaly b/c in addition to all his other weaknesses,he clogs the bases unlike anyone but a Molina brother.
It’s rare but yeah I get to use stats over you. I heard a report the other day that Dunn had cost his team more runs than any player in the last 5 years. That’s bad.
lol
u guys are funny:
fongy - Fire Omar, F-Mart is overrated
trs - don’t overpay for Lackey
kingman - Santana and Doc 1-2 punch = WS
wanny - no Byrd
stickguy - trade Castillo
mf4d - pitching, pitching, pitching
please feel free to pigeon hole me
Case - Is it too late to sign TEX?!?!?
damn you, lol
Think Ben Sheets is still
w/o a contract!
Just sayin’.
Aww, c’mon, do me!
Thats nasty Heb!
In hindsight I can see how that might be taken out of context.
I didn’t mean it in the ‘Bell Biv Devoe’ way, I just meant pigeon hole me too.
Oh, wait that’s not any better. Never mind.
I tried, seems to be you are the only rational one here
How dare you!
Consider my white glove removed and slapping you. Muskets at 10 paces sunrise tomorrow.
Hey, I like Byrd!
Fongy if you’re still out there I thought you might appreciate this tidbit from MetsmerizedOnline, although I might also file it in the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category:
“I have read several reports that although Omar Minaya still holds the title of general manager, his power to move and act freely has been taken away. Anything he may want to do, will now have to be reviewed by a committee that includes assistant GM John Ricco, VP David Howard and even the Wilpons themselves. One GM who wished to remain anonymous recently said that unlike years passed when Omar Minaya seemingly called all the shots and freely negotiated on the phone, he now excuses himself when an offer is made and doesn’t call back until 30 or more minutes later.”
Wow, this is REALLY in the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category!
Wow, talk about a smack down!
Still scary though that Sonny-
Boy-Jeffy still has a voice.
Thought he may have been put on punishment after introducing
his school chum’s Dad to Old Freddy.”Hey Pop, my friends
Dad is a financial adviser,
here’s his number”.
“His name is Bernie, he’s great
with investments”.
“Give him a call.”
you missed the key point of this piece:
Omar is already taking offers from other GMs. So, the “nothing go on at all” rumor might be bogus!
Hope one of those offers is for Castillo!
Just sayin’…Before he
trips and falls somewhere entering
a restaurant.
trade castillo? Now there is an idea! And man, a ton of comments on something that didn’t even start from an actual rmor report!
I wonder if this group, locked in a jury room like 12 angry men (I will let you assume which role TRS will fill…) would do a better job making the off season plan thatn the dim bulbs in the Mets FO will?
at the moment, I am willing to sign off on:
1) sign lackey for the TRS-sanctioned 4/64
2) trade a small prospect return for Arroyo/philips
3) Trade Castillo. Now the tricky part is what to get back. Obviously a used rosin bag is fine, but anything to unload the salary. Gets tricky if they need a bad (comparable) contract back, so of course the Reds is perfect!
now, these 3 moves leaves them at abotu 26m spent. 2 million say to Barajas, and you are at 28.
So what, 4 mill to try and upgrade the OF rotation and/or the pen? Maybe Maine and Neive can bolster the set up corps? Or just troll the scrap heap like other teams.
LF will likely have to be in house options (carter/pagan?) and Murphy still at 1st.
but man, nice upgrade at 2B and a solid, solid rotation, and potentially best in the league 1-5.
tight but doable if payroll stays the same, if getting cut subtract lackey and go with a Sheets type wing and a prayer, or if they actually stretch a few mill, you could also upgrade the offense some more.
there should be some useful players though begging for jobs once the non-tender onslaught hits!
I’ll take Jack Klugman’s role!
Please, no further mention of
Ben Sheets here.
Thank You very much!
If I were three Sheets to the wind I might say that my favorite movie was Ben, but later when sober I would deny it.
As to the plan, I love step 1!
Step 2 is fine but as I have said before if given my Sally Struthers I’d swap out Harang for Arroyo.
Since Phillips would now be in the fold I can’t argue against step 3. Finding the realistic destination is the hard part. I suppose the Dodgers and Tigers are the names that stand out due to their 2B being free agents. Make it so Stickgm.
I will take a shot on harang. SHould come cheaper (since he is more expensive!) and more of a risk/reward guy though (injuries)
I like this game.
1) trade 4 Doc 4/80
call it a day! (I kid)
2) sign Cameron 1/8
3) sign LaRoche 2/16
4) Trade Castillo (pay $4M tops)
5) sign Polanco 2/8
Any questions?
Where’s the part about the DBacks getting Aaron Heilman? Oh right he’s not a Met anymore, never mind.
I hope you’re right about Polanco’s #s but that is a small pay cut for the Gold Glover.
I know, but he’s old(er) and there seems to be many 2B available this year. Considering his offensive #s were down in 09, teams may be down on him. Who knows, maybe someone likes D and gives him $6M+.
How did yo uget freddy and paris to open up the wallet?
I think you just spent 40mill+ and havent added another crcher or anyone for the pen! Unless you are going prurely in house there.
Obviously I can’t know how much of it is just posturing and positioning, but while trying to envision changes/additions to the Mets for 2010 it’s nice to see headlines like “Dodgers don’t plan to pursue Lackey” and “Angels won’t pursue Holliday” with the sub heading of “Angels would like both Lackey and Figgins back but can’t afford both” over at MLBTR.