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Even those watching may have questioned if Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez took the mound this afternoon.  Against the Cardinals earlier today in his Spring debut K-Rod pitched a 1-2-3  7 pitch inning that you could have missed if you blinked an eye…just the way he likes it.  Rodriguez tossed a hitless 9th with the Mets down 5-4, keeping the game in tact, and then earned the win as Angel Pagan smacked a 2 run walk-off homer just over the right field wall. 

“I’m going to be a secret weapon this year,” Rodriguez said after the game.  “In and out.  Pay attention”

Met fans have to love the confidence of their closer heading into Opening Day, especially after struggling in the second half of the season and not having many chances to redeem himself  last year.  However, at this point I’m not sure anything K-Rod does will ever be a “secret”. 

It was still good to see Rodriguez in top form…let’s just hope we actually need him this year. 

The Mets will need K-Rod's curve to break even harder this year

While it is hard to imagine 8-10 pitchers in the league that are better than Johan Santana, Yahoo has ranked him #9, and ESPN at #11 among Major League pitchers entering the fantasy season.  That means based on most league formats, he should be drafted in the late 3rd or even early 4th rounds.  So, why so late?

Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN wrote an interesting article last week published here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k10santanahttp://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k10santana

analyzing Johan’s declining stats.  He breaks down the relation between Johan’s escalating ”contact rate on swings” with his diminishing strikeout ratio over the last few seasons.  His average velocity was a career low 90.5 mph last year making the difference between his fastball and his devastating change-up a lot less significant.  In essence, according to these statistics, hitters are seeing the ball better against Johan.  Add to that 2 surgeries, although one of which he recovered from with a Cy Young the following year, suspect run support, and even more suspect defense, and maybe these fantasy rankings are justified.

However, looking at the competition, I have Mr. Santana a bit higher on my board.  The top 3 are arguably Lincecum, Halladay and King Felix,   and I expect Zack Greinke to continue his dominance fresh off his first Cy Young…I’ll take him fourth.  Adam Wainwright could have easily won that honor for the NL last year coming just 1 win shy of 20 with a miniscule 2.63 ERA for the Cards..Ill take him 5th.  Big CC ended the year21-6 (including the playoffs), and is as good a candidate as any for a 20 win season with the Bombers..7th. 

The SI proclaimed "Best Pitcher in Baseball" is 4th on my list this year

The next names consist of Dan Haren, Chis Carpenter, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, and Josh Johnson.  Here is the limit of the effect of all that Cockcroft research.  In Haren, Carpenter, and Verlander you have 3 veteran starters who are all coming off stellar years yet again, but who’s ceiling has most likely already been exposed.  We have probably seen the best of these guys..and although it’s impressive, none of these guys are Johan Santana….especially considering Carpenter was MIA in ‘07 and ‘08, Verlander’s ‘08 was about as ugly as it gets going 11-17, and Haren’s loss column could hit double digits for the 4th time in his career pitching for a young inexperienced DBack team.  Santana hasn’t had years like that. 

Was Verlander's '08 a fluke? Why take the chance?

Josh Johnson will have a brilliant year in Florida most likely, fresh off his new contract, but I got to see another full year out of him before I put him in front of Johan.  If Cliff Lee continues pitching like he did in the second half of last year and into the playoffs, then he’ll have another Cy Young, but I don’t think he can continue at this torrid pace.  Santana is my 7th pitcher taken.

Where will you guys draft him?

While it’s true, D Wright was a disappointment fantasywise last year, expectations for this upcoming fantasy season are still high.  Most insiders are coughing up Wright’s sub-par production last year to a Mets team that was in disarray all season.  Without protection behind him or anyone on base in front of him, Wright couldn’t live up to his first round draft pick responsibilities.  Even so, he still managed to hit over .300 and steal 27 bases, but the overall offensive numbers really disgruntled fantasy owners.

Even Wright was mad at his fantasy production last year

So, where does Wright get drafted this year?  After a down year, Wright should slide well out of the top 5, but shouldn’t go later than the very beginning of the 2nd round..picks 10-14.  Wright will probably not be able to compete with Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria because of their enormous upside being a few years younger and having less of a ceiling.  Prince Fielder?  Expect .285, 35 homers, and 115 RBI’s, and that’s playing it safe.  With that swing and the protection he has in that lineup, those offensive numbers will simply not come down..Prince is drafted in front of Wright as well.  Miggy Cabrera?  Too consistent.  Despite his problems off the field, Miggy plays 160 games every year and bats .320 with 30+ homers and 120 RBIs.  Not many can hit the ball like Cabrera. 

Miggy Smalls is the illest

The tougher choices are going to be weighing Wright against guys like Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, Mark Teixiera, Tim Lincecum (depending on your league format), or Ryan Howard.  Hate to say it Met fans but I give Tex the edge as that ballpark is a bit too friendly, and that lineup a bit too ferocious.  24 out of 39 homers were at home for Teixiera last year, and he’s got another 81 games there this year.  However, I take a chance with Wright over the other fellas here right around the 11 or 12 spot .

A healthy Jose Reyes should mean many more chances with runners in scoring position for David, and extra protection behind him should mean he cannot be pitched around as frequently.  HR’s/RBI’s/Runs/ and maybe even SB’s should all be up from last year.   How Wright stole 27 bases last year is beyond me considering the lack of talent who hit behind him each night.  I am not sure what else NL pitchers were thinking about when he was on base, but it sure wasn’t about who was in the batter’s box.  Imagine, how many Wright can swipe this year with a much more capable lineup behind him.  Wright should resume 2005-2008 form, when he was a consistent first rounder who lived up to expectations each fantasy year.

Where do you guys take him?

Should the Mets..Get Wiggy Wit It?

A recent report out in Baltimore is that the Orioles could possibly look to move ex-Met Ty Wigginton.  I am intrigued by this and I’ll tell you why.  When Wiggy was here he was a crowd favorite and for good reason.  He was young at the time, energetic, aggressive, and hit for power.  He seemed like a winner, and if not a go getter.  A great 6th man on the NBA court.  We didn’t think he would ever be an All-Star, but we respected his game because the guy had some talent.    In 2004 we moved him in what Met fans considered at the time an acceptable move as we netted a big young right hander who showed some promise by the name of Kris Benson.  We know how that panned out.

Ty getting that jersey dirty as always

Wiggy went on to have a solid career.  In fact, I was shocked when I looked at his numbers to see how solid they really were.  Three seasons of 20+ homers, and consistent .270-.280 for really all 8 seasons.  Not bad for a 6th man.  Yet, Ty’s been shipped around the league in the last few years, and that’s mainly because of his defense.  While you can respect his versatility being able to play all around the infield, without a true position Wiggy never could hold on to a steady job.

So why bring him back then?  Listen, I am not saying the guy will be our savior, but a guy like that can win us a few ballgames for sure.  Maybe that hard nosed attitude and that energy spreads in this clubhouse.  With guys like him and Francoeur, Wright, Reyes…these are high energy guys that need to start having some fun again on the field.  Maybe we platoon him at 2b with Castillo.  We know Castillo won’t play 162 games this year this is a given. 

In some ways his return to the Mets would resemble the way Sean Avery return6d to the Garden for the New York Rangers.  Avery wasn’t the most talented of the bunch but definitely had some unique assets:  his energy, his aggressiveness…similar to Wiggy.  Avery became a fan favorite in New York has his personality suited the city well, yet the Rangers moved him a few years back.  He is back with the organization this year, and the crowd and team feed off his energy.  

Avery...being Avery

So, is Wigginton worth the $3 mill we’ll be taking on next year?  Might be worth bringing him back just to hear a few more cheers in Citifield. 

Who would we trade?  Can Wiggy make any difference?

With the dust settling from the Roy Halladay acquisition and the recent re-signing of Josh Johnson, I think it’s a good time to take a step back and measure up the arms in our division….especially with the Mets still in the hunt for another.  I think we can safely say by looking at this list that after the top 4 or 5, there is an enormous drop off in talent.   The list not only takes into account past performance, but also potential for next season.  The question is:  Would Joel Pineiro have cracked the top 10? Would Sheets? Let me know your thoughts:

1. Roy Halladay

Met fans aren’t going to like these ranks from the very start.  We are used to seeing a different name here when discussing #1, and I hate to admit it, it’s not Johan anymore.  When you take into consideration Halladay has played in Toronto his whole career in arguably the most competitive division in sports lately, not just baseball, his stats jump off the page even more.  Halladay has won 20 games twice, has a Cy Young Award under his belt and a career 148-76 record…on the Blue Jays.  He has OWNED the Yanks and Sox throughout his career.  Now he’s moving to the NL where he won’t have to deal with a DH and has a lineup behind him that can score in a hurry.  And THIS is the #1 reason I am putting him up here before Santana.  When it comes down to it Johan matches Halladay stat for stat, but if I am a betting man I would put my money on Halladay to have the better year based on the guys around him.

2. Johan Santana

  A career 3.13 ERA, 2 Cy Youngs, and a 122-60 career record.  We’ve been over his stats before this isn’t news: he’s awesome.  But, coming off minor elbow surgery and plenty of questions about the rest of the bunch land him at #2 instead of at the top spot.  Prove me wrong Johan…how bout a nice fat Cy Young this year? 

3. Josh Johnson

The day I read that this guy re-signed with the Marlins for another 4 years I  was not a happy camper.  Johnson is  just filthy on the mound.  Standing 6′7″, the 25 year old started his career a ridiculous 34-16 with a 3.40 ERA…and he’s only going to get better.  I’ve watched this guy go pitch for pitch with Johan and he’s got some unreal stuff.  If he can stay healthy he will be a serious problem for the rest of the NL East.

A Problem...

4. Jair Jurrjens

The Netherland native is only 23 and already has 30 wins.  Last year Jurrjens was 14-10 with a 2.60 ERA.  Pitching in a pitchers park with a young lineup behind him that will only get better this year, you have to like this guy’s chances for a big breakout year.  The Mets better hope Jurrjens regresses next year because he absolutely dominated them last season going 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA. 

5. Cole Hamels

What a postseason Hamels had in ‘08, but what a miserable season and postseason Hamels had in ‘09.   Much to the delight of Met fans, Hamels took a giant step backwards last year going 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA in the regular season while getting bombed out in the post season.  Hamels’ struggles flew slightly under the radar however as Cliff Lee was busy pitching gem after gem bailing the team out.  Even so, Hamels is still one of the elite pitchers in the division and is capable of throwing a complete game shutout on any given night.  Unfortunately I am expecting Hamels to be back in 2008 form next year behind Halladay. 

6. Tim Hudson

Here is where the drop off in pitchers in the division takes a bit of a nose dive.  Hudson pitched only 7 games last year for the Bravos and sat out the rest of the season after Tommy John surgery.  Despite the injury, Atlanta rewarded him with a 3 year contract extension, hmmm.  Hudson has won 56 games for the Braves though, and has had an ERA in the mid 3’s 3 out of the 4 complete years hes pitched with them.  So, for this reason we will put him here as he has proven to be solid in the division.

7. Joe Blanton

This was the toughest pick of the 10 because Blanton is really nothing special.  But, at 28 and in the prime of his career, Blanton should have a decent year.  He’s coming off a solid 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA (3.77 at homerun friendly Citizen’s Bank).  He’ll probably be in the 3 spot in the Philly rotation meaning he’ll be matched up against mediocrity if it all plays out right and should end up with double digit wins.  I am really only giving Blanton the edge here over 8-10 because of his consistency and his team.

8. Ricky Nolasco

After the ‘08 season it looked as if the Marlins had an ace in the making as Nolasco posted a 15-6 record and a 3.52 ERA.  Not so fast.  He took a big step backwards last year amassing a 5+ ERA while getting demoted to the minors.  Nolasco did return however and was able to show flashes of brilliance striking out a franchise record 16 batters in his final start of the season.  If the 27 year old can find some consistency next year he can be dangerous.  Until then, he’s Oliver Perez a few years ago. 

9. Derek Lowe

Last season the Mets had high hopes of bringing in Lowe to eat up innings and give the bullpen a few nights off, but he ended up in Atlanta.  Maybe we lucked out as Lowe struggled last year going 15-10 with a 4.67 ERA.  Strikeouts were down, walks were up.  Still, Lowe gets the benefit of the doubt here with his career 3.84 ERA and his impressive postseason record.  He’s a gritty pitcher and is still capable of shutting down a lineup. 

10. J.A Happ

The young Philly lefty won his first 7 decisions in ‘09 en route to a 12-4 2.93 ERA season..extremely impressive.  But, I have to believe Happ will regress next season in a possible sophomore slump.  A .270 BA against might tell us that he had some good fortune last year.  Even with a slight step back, I would put Happ above anyone else in the division at #10. 

Was Happ lucky last year?

Noticably absent on this list…pitchers 2-5 on the NYM staff.  Does anyone disagree?

Totals: Phils - 4,  Braves - 3, Marlins - 2, Mets - 1, Nats - 0.

flame thrower

Omar and the Mets should now be set to turn their attention to the mound immediately after Bay’s press conference today.  The pool of free agent pitchers that remain is not impressive in the least headlined by Ben Sheets, Jon Garland, and Joel Pineiro.  However, Sheets really intrigues me and here’s why:

Big Ben is looking for at least a 1 year deal worth about $12 mill, just about what he made in 2008 while pitching for the Brewers.  At one point this year both the Yanks and Red Sox have been rumored to be interested, but after the Lackey and Vazquez signings neither will likely take the risk.  Knowing the big dogs are probably out of the running and considering the initial $12 mill ask from Sheets will only come down, I cannot see how this is not a favorable option for the Mets considering the weak alternatives. 

Obviously the major concern with Sheets is health as he is coming off elbow surgery and never even took the mound in 2009.  Actually, the 31 year old has not pitched more than 200 innings since ‘04.  As a Met fan these numbers jump out much more to us than any other casual fan.  This is simply because we are traumatized from last year.  Never have I ever heard so much hype around “playing it safe” when it comes to the off-season from the media and our fanbase.  Never have I seen the focus completely switch from talent and effectiveness to innings pitched/played when approaching the free market.  What we need to understand is that last year was a freak season; one that we could neither prepare for or repair.  Injuries decimated the Mets so badly last year that it has changed the way we are weighing talent this year. 

Jon Garland is the model of consistency from an innings pitched perspective pitching at least 191 innings every year since ‘02.  Is he the answer?  Nevermind his career 4.42 ERA or the fact that he couldn’t strike out Adam Dunn to save his life.  Will consistency and durability bring us to the top of the NL?  Maybe, for our core players at least.  But not if its out of a guy like Garland when we would still be missing a #2 starter among many other things. 

If guys start dropping like flies again this year Jon Garland and his 6 innings and 4 ER/game is not going to make a difference.  We already have a Mike Pelfrey.  I can only hope the Mets front office does not feel this same conservativeness because of last year.  Sheets has ace-like stuff and has the biggest upside out of the remaining pitchers.  We have to be aggressive and take risks in the off-season, and at 1 year $8 mill lets say, the risk is manageable.  If he doesnt work out then we can pursue Beckett or another free agent next year in that stellar free agent class.  The punishment: Johan gets a year older…although signing Garland or Pineiro wouldn’t make the difference this year anyway. 

Sheets is a 4 time All-Star and has an impressive 3.73 career ERA. The last we saw him in 2008 he was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA with Milwaukee.  If all the Mets would have to do is outbid possible teams like the Rangers (rumor has it GM Nolan Ryan favors Garland),the Cubs, or the Angels then we dig deep for the extra cash and get the most talented out of the bunch.  If our scouts say he still has it, he’s worth the risk.