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Many have suggested in recent weeks that the Mets alter their usual batting order, pushing Reyes back to the 3rd spot in the lineup. I don’t think this is a terrible idea, as he may very well be more productive at that spot. However, along with that suggestion comes the notion that two of Pagan/Matthews, Murphy, and Castillo will bat 1st and 2nd in the lineup.

The issue comes up when you compare season total plate appearances with a team’s spot in the batting order. Take a look at last year’s comparison for the Mets below.

A lot of people look at creating a batting order as solely picking the best order in terms of the various talents of each player. But there’s another aspect, which is the steep descent of plate appearances as you progress through the batting order. Check out the comparison between batting 1st and 8th - we’re looking at 123 less PAs throughout the season! That’s 16% less times at the plate for the 8th hitter, which is huge in the course of a 162 game season. While creating a lineup that fully utilizes the talent of a team’s players, we should also consider this…and weight a lineup with the stronger players toward the top and the weaker players toward the bottom.

Honestly, there may not be better options in the lineup while Beltran’s out than placing Pagan/GMJ/Murphy/Castillo in the 1 and 2 spots, which hurts a little to admit. I’d much rather see a player with a higher SLG than .346 get 16% more plate appearances than Castillo, for example. Castillo’s decent OBP may have more meaning earlier in the lineup, but is it worth sacrificing extra home runs and doubles from even a modestly better hitter for that added meaning? I’m not sure what the answer is, and maybe it all evens out and none of this matters, but it’s something to keep in mind while creating your lineups!

"Sometimes I'm in a jam/I've gotta make a plan/It might be crazy/I do it anyway"

Angel Pagan arrived at camp this morning (as well as Alex Cora and Fernando Tatis). Dave Lennon, Adam Rubin, and Steve Popper got a couple questions in to the potential Mets center fielder.

Angel is “happy” to compete for the starting center fielder job (while Beltran’s rehabbing). He hopes to learn from Gary Matthews Jr and is viewing the competition as more of a learning experience rather than solely a competition.

Pagan was asked about his base-running blunders of last season, and responded “A lot of people talk about me and the bases. Everyone makes mistakes. Nobody is perfect.” adding that the blunders are all in the past.

What do you guys and gals think? Can we forget and forgive Angel’s brain-farts of 2009 and give him another chance to successfully navigate the infield?

With the signing of Rod Barajas, it appears the Mets have a new starter set behind the plate for the 2010 season. Rumor has it that Barajas will make $1MM guaranteed with another $1MM in easily obtained incentives. Earlier this winter Bengie Molina signed a 1 year, $4.5MM contract with the San Francisco Giants. The Mets were praised by some (fans) and blasted by others (media) for not upping their offer to obtain the veteran backstop.

Barajas diving into the stands for a foul ball. There was a similar picture of Bengie, but I'm 99% certain he just saw a fan holding a Twinkie.

I thought it might be fun (/statistics junkie) to compare and rank Barajas and Molina as well as Brian Schneider, whom the Mets are replacing at the position. The comparisons are solely of an offensive nature and do not take into account fielding or running like molasses (except perhaps in runs scored). Barajas is supposed to be an excellent fielding catcher, but then again - the same was rumored about Schneider, and we all know how that turned out.

The comparison/ranking chart is featured below, but I’ll quickly run through the basics first. I only used the last three seasons, then took a total of the three using weighted averages for OBP, SLG, and OPS, while calculating the average number of HR/RBI/R/SO per 135 games played. I don’t know how many games Barajas will start this season, but 135 seems reasonable. I would risk to the lower side (110-120?), but it doesn’t really matter in this instance. Anyway, in most of the categories Molina came out first and Schneider came out last, with Barajas in the middle. Considering that Barajas will get paid less than half of what Molina makes this season, this move just makes sense for the Mets. Schneider signed for two seasons with the Phillies, as a backup, and will most likely make a bit less than Bajaras per year. Adding in Barajas’ supposedly solid defense, it just seems like the Mets were far better off paying him $1-2MM than paying Molina $5MM. But please make your own judgment and post it in the comments!

This morning metsgrrl.com’s Caryn Rose made a very informative post for those of you looking to get into Twitter.

Twitter's fail whale

We post tweets a lot on this website, as early sources of information. The great thing about it is that this stuff is totally public, and if you want to hear it all first you can sign up for Twitter within a matter of seconds. You don’t have to follow anyone who tweets about their daily breakfast if you don’t want to! I promise.

So check out Caryn’s great post if you’re interested. One correction I might make is to follow me @adammarcal, where I post about sports 95% of the time and tweet important weather updates when relevant during baseball season. You can also check out the accounts of fellow Real Dirty authors ceetar and TRS.

We all heard the rumors yesterday speaking of Kelvim Escobar’s apparent elbow discomfort…but a tweet from hardball (NBC Sports) writer Craig Calcaterra is notable more distressing. Craig tweets “Just heard that Kelvim Escobar may be in worse shape than reported yesterday. Can’t pick up a ball; could be seriously injured.”

If I may play the psychologist for the Mets’ fan base for a moment… After the incredible rash of injuries last season for the Mets, it’s our first and natural reaction to freak out when we hear of any player feeling less than 100%. However, there’s also a second reaction, a backlash of the first, if you will. The second reaction goes something like “Because of last season, we’re all freaking out way too much regarding these minor potential injuries. We need to calm down, everything will be fine.” The second reaction is an overcompensation, and may be just as far away from realism as the initial freak-out. So let’s get real. Escobar could be injured - elbow discomfort isn’t something to gawk at - it could be significant, or it may not be. But we shouldn’t be in denial, claiming that it’s normal for someone coming back from a surgery and that he’ll be fine. We just don’t know.
Added to by TRS86:  From Metsblog:  “According to Adam Rubin of the Daily News, Johan Santana said he recently played catch with Kelvim Escobar, and reports Escobar is unable to grip a baseball are not true.

Does Twitter ever frustrate you?

I’m baffled at the number of positions on the Mets that will be “up for grabs” in Spring Training this season. Sometimes competition for a position can be a good thing – it can light a fire under a player that may need the pressure to succeed. But most of the time, I believe it shows inherent weaknesses in a roster and can make a player doubt himself. Omar Minaya set out to fix the holes on the roster this offseason, but there are more positions up for grabs this season than last!

Santos Should Start

Catcher: Josh Thole or Omir Santos?

I don’t understand why there’s competition at this position. I was certain that the team signed Chris Coste almost solely to mentor Thole in AAA for at least half the season. This was a notion I firmly backed at the time, and I’m still in support of this plan. Thole is a converted catcher and could use some more time learning the position in an environment with less pressure than the Big Apple. We know what we’re going to get out of Santos, and I think it’s fine as a short-term solution. Please Omar and Jerry, just let Thole have some more time to develop. Don’t rush him.

Murphy Must Make it

First Base: Daniel Murphy or Mike Jacobs?

I can’t even believe this is in debate, but according to Omar the two players will compete for the starting spot. Daniel Murphy may not be a superstar, but he has the potential to hit for average and play a decent first base. Mike Jacobs can hit home runs. He can’t hit for average, he strikes out a ton, and word has it that his fielding is well below average. So why the need for a competition? If it’s to light a fire under Murphy, then Omar must never have met the kid. Murphy’s going to work his arse off to become a better player, maybe even working too hard.

Pagan Promises to Prevail

Center Field (while Beltran is out): Angel Pagan or Gary Matthews Jr?

Oy vei! Gary Matthews Jr has been one of the worst outfielders over the past two seasons in all of major league baseball. He can’t hit (OPS under .700 both of the last two years) and he can’t field (UZR -9.3 and -14.5) – he has no place starting on a team. Angel Pagan may be injury prone as well as prone to make an occasional boneheaded mistake, but he’s an otherwise very solid player, despite his lack of sustained starting experience. In 376 plate appearances last season for the Mets, Pagan hit for an OPS of .837 with an UZR of 5.8. Angel Pagan with a broken leg may be a better option in CF than GMJ.

Fifth Starter: Fernando Nieve or Jon Niese (or others)?

This is actually the only competing position I understand. Fifth starter spots on teams are often in competition because so many pitchers can be close to the fifth best starter on a team. I’d be fine if Omar and Jerry pick either Nieve or Niese for the role. Nieve was extremely solid last season in his few starts with the Mets and Niese may be developing into a solid middle of the rotation guy. With all the potential short-comings of the Mets, I actually like the fifth starter options.

What I really don’t understand is why Omar is adding question marks where there shouldn’t be any. We know that in all likelihood the starters at catcher, 1B, and CF will be Santos, Murphy, and Pagan – so why make these players doubt themselves? None of these three needs a fire lit under him; from what I understand they’re all hard-working guys who want to win.

There’s no roster negativity going on here. I’m absolutely fine with the team using Santos, Murphy, and Pagan as starters as well as Nieve/Niese. It’s the management decisions that I seriously question. And despite these questions, I do have reasonable faith the in the end the right decisions will be made. I just hope the Spring Training question marks don’t leave their mark on Jerry, prompting him to dilly-dally during the regular season at various positions. I’m a huge believe in a set line-up with stability, and the first step in getting that is deciding on the team’s starters and sticking with them.