Just two days after Mom (MLB) and Dad (MLBPA) publicly scolded the Marlins over incorrect use of their revenue-sharing profits, the Fish and JJ have finalized a 4 year, $39M deal to to keep him in South Florida through the 2013 season. JJ will get $3.75M in 2010, $7.75M in 2011, and $13.75M in 2012 and 2013.

“I’m excited,” Johnson said to ESPN. “It sets up me and my family for life. One of the best parts is knowing where I’m going to be the next four years. I won’t have to hear about any trade rumors or anything like that. I’m happy to be in South Florida.”

The deal was on par with Zack Greinke’s 4Y/$38M, which JJ’s agent’s Matt Sosnick previously said his contract would have to “far exceed”.

Obviously this is great news for everyone involved. JJ gets set for life, the Fish get their ace locked up for the first two years of the new ballpark, and the fans get to see the Marlins make another step towards a solid 2012 team with JJ becoming the cornerstone of our pitching in addition to Hanley being the cornerstone for our position players.

1) Mike Stanton

You hate to say a guy is a sure-fire allstar, but, it doesn’t get much better than him.

Some will probably make something off his drop in HRs, how he didn’t even eclipse 30 this year after hitting nearly 40 last year. He also had quite the power drop in Jax, putting up “only” a .224 ISO.

However, here’s he’s break down of park adjusted HR/FB (% of flyballs hit into the OF that go for HRs):

08 Greensboro: 27.22%
09 Jupiter: 26.76%
09 Jacksonville: 26.5%

I could only find one player in all of pro ball that beat Mike Stanton in Park Adjusted HR/FB%: Adrian Gonzalez, who blasted 40 HRs while playing half his games in PetCO (And who’s park adjusted HR total falls at 55). That’s just how legit Mike Stanton’s power is as a 19 year old.

The only thing holding him back is his K’s. So, what, his worst case scenario is putting up Russell Branyan’s career line while playing above average defense in RF?

Meanwhile he tantalized us with a great Jupiter performance, where he only struck out 21.5% of the time. His May was especially amazing, finishing with a 0.79 BB/K, dropped his K% to 17%, and also launched 8 bombs (Park adjusted line for may: .309/.400/.734/1.134…with a .290 BABIP).

I think it’s a bit much to completely hold onto one amazing month, and I think K’s will still be a problem for him. Right now I have him at a:

.259/.346/.531/.877 line

That’s while still striking out 1 in every 3 ABs, launching 40 HRs with 30 doubles, a .310 BABIP, and walking 11%. There might be room to grow in BB%, however outside of his Jupiter mastering of the strike zone, here’s his uBB% for Greensboro and Jax: 9.5%, 8.9%. So I’m already putting him at improvement there based off his power.

Going then to defense, he has a very impressive career TZ/150 in RF of +15. He’s even shown that he’s right now an above average CFer, having a +5 rating in 200 chances. However, as he grows, his defense will go down and he will likely not be able to handle CF. Right now I have him at +7 runs defensively, but it will be interesting to see just how good he will be. I also have him at +1 on the basepaths due to his athleticism, and based off the fact he has not been stealing bases in the minors, so it’ll likely be a wash for him.

All in all that would put him in the 4-4.5 WAR range over 150 games. If he becomes a Russell Branyan career-line like player, we’re still talking about a 2.5-3.0 WAR player. His downside is basically that he becomes a slightly above average RFer. Meanwhile, if he starts getting in the mid 40 to 50 plus HR range, or he gets a better command of the strike zone like he did in Jupiter, he will be a top line power hitter in all of baseball.

2) Matt Dominguez

I’m going to focus more on why he’s above Logan in Logan’s section. For now, I’m just going to focus on why he’s here.

I’ve constantly read that people are down on him for his Jupiter performance after what he did in Greensboro. This, to me, makes no sense.

Here is his park adjusted greensboro line: .296/.354/.472/.827
Park adjusted line for jupiter: .273/.343/.449/.791

36 point OPS difference, that’s still pretty decent bit. However, there’s also the fact that the FSL is a lot more of a pitchers park. He had a 132 OPS+ in Greensboro. Jupiter? 130.

His peripherals also weren’t much difference. One of the main things was that he increased his walking (7.3% to 8.9%) while cutting his K’s (17.9% to 15.9%). His park adjusted ISO barely showed a difference either, going from .177 down to .176. THere certainly was a difference in HRs, as even park adjusted them gave him a HR/150 of 26 in Greensboro, just 20 in jupiter. However, he also hit 2b’s at a much higher rate. Really, the big difference between the minimal difference in OPS between the two years is that he had a .328 adjusted BABIP in Greensboro, but .298 in Jupiter. Meanwhile he went from walking at a below average rate to an above average rate, while cutting his K’s, and keeping his power.

So, why are people disappointed in his Jupiter again?

Now his Jax performance was certainly quite bad. Even park adjusted it only rises it to a .196/.298/.340/.638 performance, good for a 79 OPS+. His power dropped (just 11 HR/150 and a .144 ISO), his BABIP was terrible at .236, and his K rate rose to 21% (the first time he’s finished above the league average rate).

But that’s looking skin deep. When he swung the bat, he was still making contact. Here’s his % of times striking out swinging by league:

Greensboro: 13.7%
Jupiter: 13.2%
Jax: 12.3%

It has actually improved as he has gone higher.

The issue? He has struck out looking 8.8% of the time in Jax, compared to 3.4% between Greens and Jup. Combine the fact that he raised his BB% all the way up to 12.3%, and it shows he just wasn’t swinging the bat much at all.

It’s been said the jump to AA is the hardest jump a player will make, even harder then the jump to the majors. For now, Dominguez has a lot of adjusting to do to AA pitching. However, one thing to remember is that he was just 19 years old. Only 6 other hitters were of 19 years of age in the Southern league. Two of those only played in a dozen or less games (Brett Lawrie and Carlos Truinfel). The other 4? Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro, Jason Heyward, and Freedie Freeman. Yeah, I would say he’s in good company.

Defensively, the book has been written a thousand times with the fact that scouts think he’s already MLB ready with the glove. He saved 12 runs in just 215 chances for Jupiter this past season, for a TZ/150 of +20 runs. Adjusted for league, that puts him on par with a +14.5 ML defensive player. Even regressing 50% still puts him at +7 runs.

All together, assuming a bit drop in BB (8%), a bit up in K (19%), nothing special BABIP (.300), as well as putting him down for 22 HRs and 30 2b/3b (.168 ISO), that gives him a .262/.326/.431/.757 line. If we assume he’s dead even on the base paths, and a +10 defender, that puts him at a 3 WAR player. If he can become a 25-30 HR player instead of a 20-25 HR player, that basically makes him an Adrian Beltre clone. It’s hard atm to project him anymore than that though. However, he’s downside is basically a Pedro Feliz-like player, meaning he’s going to be starting somewhere.

3) Logan Morrison

So why so down on Morrison?

Mostly, there’s the power shortage. Yeah, he had a HR/150 of 25 in Greensboro. But he also then became a line drive hitter, and has then put up a 17 HR/150 in Jupiter and 15 HR in Jax. 15-20 HR power just isn’t very good at all. Yeah, there’s the walks (Although he’s not going to walk nearly as much as he did this year in Jax in the majors), yeah there’s the good K rate. Yeah there’s the above average ability for BABIP. He’s going to be an above average hitter compared to the league.

But he’s a first base man. The average 1b OPS this past season was .845. For this millennium, it’s .836. First basemen are SUPPOSE to be above average hitters.

If we put him down for 20 HRs, 35 Doubles/Triples (.175 ISO, so asking him for an uppage based off age), 12% BB rate, 16% K rate, and a .320 BABIP, that gives him a .284/.375/.458/.833 line. Out of 19 qualified 1b’s this past season, only two finished with a worse OPS.

Ontop of which, he hasn’t really shown himself to be a good defender, at least going by Total Zone. For his career, he has a league adjusted TZ/150 of -10. Now the good news is it has been improving to the point of being positive this past season (-11 in Greensboro, -4 in Jupiter, +5 in Jacksonville), and the scouting report is that he’s about average with poor range but good hands. But it’s hard to really say anything but him being below average atm. And, being a big lumbering first baseman, it’s unlikely he’s a plus on the base paths.

So if we assume that .833 OPS, with -5 runs defensively, and -1 runs on the base paths, that puts him at just a 2 WAR. Not exactly impressive, is it?

Yes, you hope that that OPS starts sitting in the .850-.900 OPS range, you hope that he’s around average defensively. This puts him to the 3-3.5 WAR range. But as of now, the power has not showed up. That’s not to say it won’t. I mean, a former Florida Marlins top first base prospect was only suppose to have 20 HR power, and he went on to hit 40 HRs in PetCO this past season. But until it happens, it hasn’t happened.

This then gets us more to the point of Dominguez v.s. Morrison. The difference between Dominguez being a great defender at third and Morrison being a bad defender at first is somewhere between 25 to 30 runs. Going with the base line that 10 runs = 40 OPS points, that means that Morrison has to be out OPS Dominguez about 100 points to be as valuable as Dominguez is. So if Dominguez puts up a .750-.800 OPS, that means that Morrison has to put up his own .750-800 OPS. This kind of goes into the whole “1b’s are traditionally overrated, 3b’s are traditionally underrated” mindset.

Another major cause of concern: although it’s a small sample size, Logan has not shown an ability to hit LHP. Throughout his career, his power is significantly worse (.183 ISO vs .136), he strikes out significantly more (21% v.s. 14%), and his walks are down aswell (9% v.s. 13%). His BB/K against RHP is more than double that against LHP (0.44 v.s. 0.97). It got even worse as he went to AA this past season and saw lefties that could actually throw breaking balls. He had nearly as many strike outs against LHP than he did RHP (21 v.s. 26) even though he only had 102 PA against LHP, 267 against RHP.

Now if he can still be a mid 700 OPS or so bat against LHP, than hey, he won’t need a platoon. But he might end up being a platoon bat, which greatly lowers what his value is.

4) Jake Smolinski

Smolinski’s line in his first season with the Marlins wasn’t too impressive. He finished with a park adjusted line of .283/.379/.437/.816. The OBP certainly sticks out, but you’d love to see more power. Still, a .84 BB/K is very impressive.

Most have compared him to ROTY Chris Coghlan: Good approach, good BB/K, not much raw HR power but good gap power. Their Greensboro lines were certainly interesting in comparison.

JS/CC
BB%: 12%/14%
K%: 13%/12%
HR/150: 12/14
ISO: .154/.177
BABIP: .320/.354

The main thing that sticks out is the BABIP difference, as well as the gap power difference. The first though has a high luck variance, and for the second Chris Coghlan was two years older than Smolinski was this past season. Coghlan, 22 at the time, was a bit older than league average (21.7). Smolinski, 20, was below.

So the difference in power should lower in time. Still, overall he’s a little weaker than CC, since ontop of the power he also strikes out a tick more and walks a tick less.

If we give him a 10% BB rate, 15% K rate, .130 ISO (11 HRs and 40 doubles), and a .310 BABIP, that gives him a .270/.348/.400/.748 line. Very solid for a 2b/3b, very less so if he’s forced to move to the OF. For now, I’m assume he’s staying in the IF though. Considering the scouting report on him isn’t all too promising though, and his milb defensive numbers aren’t too impressive, I currently have him at -3 runs. Overall, that would put him as a 2 WAR player. Real decent.

5) Gaby Sanchez

First thing I want to say is the final 3 really are interchangeable. They’re all really bench bats/not very good starters.

Gaby Sanchez gets the nod here for his possible ability to play third base. If he can actually play the position fine (up to, say, -5 runs defensively), he’d actually likely make an average starter. This is in question though, as the Marlins have bounced him back and forth between 1b and 3b in the minors (62 games at 3b, 69 at 1b in ‘08. 41 at 3b, 45 at 1b this past season).

One of the more questionable things about Gaby has been his power. He burst on the scene by putting up a monster year in Greensboro, finish with a park adjusted line of .317/.447/.571/1.019 and a HR/150 of 33. His power almost completely disappeared the next year in Jupiter though, as his park adjusted ISO dropped nearly 100 points, and HR/150 was just 13. His park adjusted line wasn’t all that bad though at .290/.378/.459/.837, good for a 134 OPS+.

Carolina saw a jump in power again. While Carolina helped him finish the double total he did, he still finished with a park adjusted ISO of .199, and improved his HR/150 to 21.

This past season in NO though yet again brings up questions. He finished with a park-adjusted HR total of 18 in only 370 PA, good for a HR/150 of 32. Even adjusting for the league, by comparing the PCL to the IL, puts him at a 16 HR total, or 28 HR/150.

So where do we go from here? Well, you choose the biggest sample size: his career. He now has a 22 HR/150 for his career. One thing to remember though is that he’s constantly been old for the level, making the power he’s put up a bit questionable. I’d probably say he’s around a 15 HR power, or about ML average.

The rest is pretty cut forward: Awesome BB/K, not particularly good BABIP skills. Assuming a 11% BB rate, 15% K rate, 20 HRs/40 doubles (.155 ISO), and a .300 BABIP gives him a .266/.353/.421/.774 line.

CHONE almost completely agrees with me, with a .267/.354/.419/.773 line. All the peripherals are basically the same. Bill James? not so much. He calls for Gaby to have a massive .185 ISO, launching 15 HRs in just 406 PA (24 HR/150). However, he also had Gaby down for an upper .800 OPS before 09, and his system is known for being extremely optimistic on young players.

Definitely, he was originally thought to be a terrible defender at first base but has made a lot of progress, and the scouts view him as an above average defender although he might be closer to average at first. For now I’d assume something like +3 runs. On the base paths, he’s actually pretty decent but again, like almost all players, it’s more or less a wash.

All in all this would put him at a 1.76 WAR as a 1B. Not exactly impressive, but you could do a whole lot worse (like, say, Mike Jacobs). If he could manage to be a -5 defender at third, this would jump in his WAR up to 2.3. Total Zone thinks he could do that, but there’s certainly a reason the Marlins haven’t made him a full time 3b.

6) Bryan Petersen

What a mixed bundle of progressing and stepping backwards this past season.

First, the good. He lowered his strike rate by a ton. After striking out 19% of the time in 2008, he struck out just 13% of the time in ‘09.

The bad though? After being labeled a potential 20/20 guy after hitting a combined park adjusted HR total of 22 aswell as steal 23 bases, he’d hit just 7 HRs this past season, and finish with nearly as many CS as SB (13 for 25). He’d finish with just a .118 park adjusted ISO for the season. Still, there’s some to like about his season line of .306/.377/.425/.801.

One thing to point out about his power outage: almost the entire outage happened at the beginning of the year, where he went over 70 days without a home run.

Since the game where he broke that drought, he put up a .317/.383/.484/.867 line in 206 PA, with a 19/16 BB/K and .323 BABIP. That’s a .167 ISO, basically identical to what he did last season. He’d hit 6 HRs in that stretch, which would rate to 19 over 650 PA.

He’d then go to the AFL, where he again showed that same power: He’d hit 3 HRs, 6 doubles, and 3 triples in just 101 PA (Which would again rate to 19 HRs over 650 PA), for a .221 ISO.

So is the power back? Well, plain and simple, the bigger sample size > the smaller sample size. But if he comes back to being a 20 HR threat, he’s now a starting OFer at the ML level and jumps up this list.

I’m personally putting him between. I do not think at all he’s the slap hitting .100 ISO guy he was this past season, but I think presumption to pencil him back in for a .150 ISO. So instead, I’m giving him a .130 ISO (35 2b/3b, 12 HRs). Combine with his good walk rate (9%), improved K rate (16%), and decent rate of hitting for BABIP (.310), this gives him a .267/.339/.397/.736 line. Not exactly threatening for a starting corner OFer.

However, he’s also the only left hander that will appear on this list that does not have a platoon question about him. His BB/K, power, and BABIP are basically identical between the two hands.

He’s defense also isn’t particularly good. Scouts have labeled him an average defender, and his total zone basically backs that up. And while his baserunning took a step back this past season, he should still be a bit above average. If we put him at +2 at both of those, that puts him at a 1.36 WAR. So, bench bat needless to say. 20 HRs though starts pushing him around the 2.5ish WAR range though, making him a decent starting corner OFer.

7) Scott Cousins

And to wrap it up, Scott Cousins. Offensively, things aren’t looking to promising. He walks at a below average rate (7.9% this past season, 8.3% in his career), strikes out at an above average rate (20.1% this past season, 20.8% in his career).

You would hope power could make up for it, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case. While he does sit on a career park adjusted ISO of .185, and a HR/150 of 19, he’s also regularly been old for the leagues. Ontop of which, he saw a power shortage this past season in Jacksonville, with a HR/150 of 15. While he still finished with a very good .189 ISO, that’s also because he hit 11 triples. Since triples aren’t exactly a representation of power but rather speed, if we change those to doubles, his ISO drops down to .166, a lot less impressive for a 24 year old in AA.

For now, it looks like he’ll only develop into average power. There’s certainly potential for more though, especially after what he did last season between Jupiter and Carolina. He’d finish with a park-adjusted ISO of .206, and HR/150 of 25 in 300+ PA.

If he can reach that kind of power production again, things would look a lot better for him.

Unfortunately though, things are what they currently are. Putting him down for 7% BB rate, 23% K rate, .310 BABIP, and 15 HRs/.151 ISO puts him at a .247/.306/.399/.704 line.

The good news, of coarse, is defense. The past three years, he has a TZ/150 of +14 runs in the OF, and that’s not adjusting for time in CF (380 chances in CF, 528 in RF, 29 in LF). That’s also not including his arm, which is a cannon. He should be about a +10 defender in a corner OF spot, and about average in CF.

He’s also a good base runner, stealing 27 bases this past season and should be good for 10-20 SB a year. So about +2 runs on the base paths.

However, that’s not enough to make up for his bat. With a .704 OPS, this would just make him a 1.14 WAR player. Certainly some room to hope for improvement, but he’s looking more like he’ll take the brett carroll defensive replacement OFer spot once Carroll hits arbitration.

Some (somewhat) good news though is he does look like he could become a .730-.750 OPS bat against RHP. While he has shown that he can hit the ball with the same authority v.s. LHP that he does against RHP, the problem is actually hitting the ball. Combined with his defense, this makes him a borderline average starter against RHP. Combine him with a, say, Brett Carroll, who is a borderline average starter against LHP, and you’re looking at average production combined. This would not be an ideal situation but he still has some use as a starter even if his power doesn’t pick up.

And adding a guy who shouldn’t touch a top 50 list but is still someone to keep an eye on

Brandon Tripp.

After hitting .288/.377/.531/.908 Bal’s A team (Who’s stadium is the equivalent of Jupiter), he’d hit just .236/.402/.698 for their A+ team in ‘08 (Who’s stadium is the equivalent of Greensboro) and was released before the ‘09 season. The Marlins picked him up and stuck him in Jupiter. As a 24 year old in A+ ball, he should certainly be expected to hit well. And he did. He put up a park adjusted line of .288/.356/.470/.826 with a 24 HR/150.

Most impressively though is what he did to his K rate. After striking out 30.5% of the time in ‘08, he struck out just 23% of the time this past season. Still high, but much improved.

Another major thing is that Tripp, a left handed batter, has a major split in his career against RHP and it showed last year aswell. His park adjusted line against RHP? .307/.371/.518/.888, with a HR/150 of 31.

He certainly still has a long way to go, but the Marlins have always liked him and re-signed him quickly this offseason, so he’ll likely get his due in the minors here. And he’s someone to keep an eye on of possibly becoming a bench bat or possibly even a platoon starter down the road.

So we essentially already know what our ‘10 bullpen is going to look like. The question is, how can we expect these guys to perform next season?

First thing: Keep in mind the average RP arm is basically a 4.10ish ERA guy.

Who all is competing?  Right now we know:

Basically locks:
Matt Lindstrom (Either 1 option or out of options)
Leo Nunez (Out of options)
Brian Sanches (Out of options)
Dan Meyer (Out of options)
Renyel Pinto (Out of options)
Rick VandenHurk (Out of options)
Burke Badenhop (1 option left but very effective)

A bullpen consists of 7 relievers, normally two of which are lefties.  That above is 7 relievers, two of which are lefties.  However, Pinto may be traded (Hunter Jones, Taylor Tankersley, and Jay Voss (long shot) would likely compete for the last spot), as well as one or both of Lindstrom and Nunez.  For those two, in the minors we have Tim Wood, Ryan Tucker, Chris Leroux, Christhian Martinez, Jay Buente, Hayden Penn, Brett Sinkbeil, Garrett Parcell, and Kris Harvey [Roughly in order of what I'd assume the likeliness being they make the team].

I’m going to focus on the 7 above “locks”, plus Tim Wood, who is the only one out of that group who has somewhat of a ML sample size and the probable favorite to replace an arm next season.

Brian Sanches

There’s a lot to support that Sanches won’t repeat his 2.56 ERA from this past season, and not just that fact that he’s been a MILB journeyman. He finished the season with a FIP of 4.14, and very much less impressively an xFIP of 4.66.

One of the main problems was his BB/9; he finished the season with a 4.15 BB/9 and his MLB career walk rate now sits at 4.88 (Average is normally around 3.5). This is quite the far cry from his minor league numbers, where he’s put up a 2.47 BB/9 since he was converted into a reliever back in 2004.

However, one of the more staggering numbers is his intentional walks given up. He led the team in IBB, which includes starting pitchers, while only pitching 56 innings.

Considering IBB’s aren’t a proper explanation of a players control, if we take that out from his BB rate, his BB/9 drops to a nice 2.89, a lot more around what to expect based off his MILB track record.

For his K rate, he finished with a 8.15 K/9 and now has a career rate of 8.01. So this will probably transfer over again.

His HR rates, however, are another matter. He gave up a FB exactly half the time, a staggering rate. His HR/FB of 6.2% is quite a drop in what to expect, and is why his xFIP is so high. xFIP called for him to give up 3 more HRs, or 1.28 HR/9.

So without a doubt, Sanches is not without his issues. He’s the typical FB pitcher that is able to get by because of a good K/BB, but will never be great because of the HRs given up (You’ll notice this will be a trend for our bullpen).

There is one thing though, as his MILB FB% since 2005 with just 40.3%, and his MLB career rate now sits at 45.9%. If we assume he’s more around the mid 40’s, this would have dropped his expected HR/9 from last season down to 1.12, a lot more respectable number (Average is normally around 1).

So if say next season he can put up a 8 k/9, a 3 BB/9, and a 1.15 HR/9, this would put him at a 4.08 FIP, or exactly league average. So, especially considering the fact he’s cost controlled for two more seasons as well as the fact he can eat up multiple innings, he’ll be a nice valuable reliever. There’s certainly some cause for concern, especially with his HR and FB rates, but he was a nice pick up by the FO.

Dan Meyer

Basically the LHP version of Sanches.

His 3.09 final ERA was very nice, and his FIP of 3.87 showed that he pitched well. He also wasn’t particularly beneficial of the HR, as his xFIP was just 4.14. However, his FB rate was still a massive 48.1%, and his HR/9 rate will likely continue to be in the 1.1-1.2 range.

There’s also a pretty big concern about his BB rates. While he finished the season with an above average rate of 3.24, it was 4.30 in the second half. And considering that he is inside the strike zone at a league average rate, and gets swings outside the strike zone at a below average rate, well, he’s probably closer to the 4.30 number than the 3.24 number.

We can simply call him league average though, which is about 3.50, but there is certainly a “Proceed with caution” sign attached to it. And his K-rate of 8.64 was very impressive, and only got better as the season progressed.

So even with a bump in BB and HR rates, his K rates should still perform at a good level, which again put him at around an average reliever. If we put him down for 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 1.15 HR/9, this puts him at a 4.14 FIP.

Leo Nunez

Want to talk HR problems? The biggest issue in Nunez’s career came in full force last season. His 5.17 FIP was just horrible, though his 4.32 xFIP is a lot more caring. His FB rate was roughly his career rate (43%) but his HR/FB rocketed all the way to 15.1%. If he’s able to fall back down towards his career rate of 10.9%, there’s a lot more to like.

There’s also a lot more to like about a dropping HR rate: more strike outs. While his career HR/9 sits at 1.34, his career K rate sits at 6.4. A guy always labeled to have good “stuff”, it finally came to fuition this past season as he threw his change up more and his K rate rose to 7.86. It’s simple: You strike out more players, less balls in play, less chance of a ball leaving the park.

If he’s able to be an 8 K/9 guy, his career HR/9 rate would drop to a 1.26 rate. Still bad, but still an improvement.

However, with that increase change up usage came a drop in control, at his BB/9 rose to 3.54 while before this season it sat at 2.71. Part of that had to do with more than doubling his career IBB rates, but his uIBB% still rose as well, from 6.4% the previous 4 seasons to 7.59% this past season. So his BB rates should certainly lower from this past season, but will still likely be higher than his career rate. He’ll probably be around a 3 BB/9.

So if we say 8 k/9, 3 BB/9, and a 1.26 HR/9, it still puts him at just a 4.24 FIP. Entering his first year of arbitration, the Marlins are likely better off trading him this off season while he’s still considered a “young live arm”, as well as having racked up 26 saves.

Matt Lindstrom

One of the main things to understand about Lindstrom’s numbers this past season: He was injured in the WBC and never really fully healed, which really showed in his control. His BB/9 jumped to a whopping 4.56, while his career rate currently sits at 3.72, which is likely a lot closer to Lindstorm’s true talent level.

You also know more or less what you’re getting in his K rate: last season he finished with a 7.42 rate, while his career rate sits at 7.55.

One of the things that he has really benefited from though his HRs. He gave up a total of 3 in 07-08 combined. That number nearly tripled this past season (5), but that’s also probably more around what to expect, with a 9.3 HR/FB rate this past season. However, he still gets GB’s a decent rate, and a HR/9 of around 0.85 is probably about what to expect.

So if we say he’s a 7.5 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9, that puts him at a 4.01 FIP.

One cause of concern though: Lindstrom’s lowest BABIP in a season is .321, and his carer rate now sits at .332. He has only pitched 171.7 IP, but he also had a career LD% against of 19.7. If this is a trend that continues, that’s means he’s going to constantly perform above what his FIP would tell us.

Tim Wood

What an average name for what an average talent.

He hasn’t pitched anywhere close enough in the majors to really get a grasp on him, but at the same time he’s pitched basically what you’d have expected from the minors. What’s interesting, thanks to Stat Corner, is put side by side his AAA numbers to his MLB numbers.

K swinging%: 18.2%/16.5%
K looking%: 2.84%/0% (Not a single K looking at the major league level)
Unintentional BB%: 8.52%/9.28%

So far, he’s basically been able to translate from the MILB to the MLB. Will that stay? Can’t say until he has more experience.

But for now, if we say he’s able to be a average/slightly below average talent at striking hitters out, a average/slightly below average talent at walking hitters, and an above average talent at prevent HRs and XBH, well, we have an average to slightly above average RP.

Penciling him in for a 6.75 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9 puts him at a 4.11 FIP, and there’s certainly room to grow in the K/BB. I especially think he can hit the generally-mandatory 2 K/BB ratio.

Renyel Pinto

Pinto is a real interesting case. His career FIP is a horrid 4.77 thanks to his abysmal BB/9 of 6. However, his career ERA in 214 innings is 3.70. This is thanks to a great strand rate (78.5%, average is normally around 70%), which itself is helped by a good BABIP (.270). And it’s not without warrant, his career LD% against is just 16.7%.

He does strike out batters at an above average rate (Career 8.65), and gives up HR’s at a league average rate (0.97), but his BB rate is just not acceptable. Since 2006, no pitcher who has pitched at least 150 combined innings has a higher BB/9. Not even Carlos Marmol, who is second at 5.85. Marmol though is also a similar case,where he’s gotten by thanks to a high K rate, strand rate, and low BABIP and LD rates. Will these guys be able to sustain their good ERA numbers? It’ll be interesting to see.

For now, there’s only two things we know: The numbers say he’s going to come crashing down, but at the same time he’s still been able to get by.

Burke Badenhop

Badenhop gives us one major question: how does a sinkerball pitcher with sub-par stuff go from having a MILB K rate of 6.1 to having a K rate as a reliever of 7.3?

Well, there’s one answer: Players struck out looking a massive 7.9% of the time against him. So his stuff was still sub-par, hitters just weren’t swinging (Swingers swung at balls 41% of the time against him this past season. League average is 45%, or about 50 more swings).

If we drop his K looking% down to a more respectable 5%, his K/9 drops to a more expected 6.2.

That’s not to bash on the Hopper though. His unintentional BB/9 was a terrific 2.07 as a reliever, and his 53% GB rate was 13th in the NL. He’s still not going to walk people, he’s still not going to give up many HRs.

If we put him down for a 6.25 K/9, 2.25 BB/9,and 0.75 HR/9, we’re still talking about a 3.64 FIP for him. His conversion as a mop-up reliever to higher leverage situations should continue into next season, as he could end up being our best reliever next season after being our second best this past season (Behind Kiko Calero).

Rick Vanden Hurk

Nothing has been said yet of converting him to a BP arm yet, but considering he’s 1) out of options, 2) does not go deep into games, and 3) we have a full rotation already, he’s likely starting point next year is the bullpen.

What can we expect? It’s hard to say when all he’s done so far is start.

What we do know: He gives up a massive amount of FBs and a massive amount of HRs. His MLB FB% sits at 47.9%, HR/FB at 12.4%, and HR/9 at 1.57. You certainly hope these drop as a reliever, but we’re still talking of hoping he becomes a 1.2-1.3 HR/9 guy.

What we do know: His new slider that he learned in the WBC from Bert Blyleven has really improved his control, although is did also hurt his K rate. He finished with just a 7.52 K/9 (9.6 K/9 previously), but just a 3.22 BB/9 (5.5 previously).

Again it’s hard to say what we can really expect with him moving to the bullpen, but if we call him at 7.75 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, that basically makes him Leo Nunez. You really hope that the K rates can sky-rocket to their previous level while keeping his great walk rates, and you really hope something gets done about those HRs, but for now its hard to project anything more than an average reliever.

However, he certainly has major break out potential, and could finish the season closing out games.

to sum it up
sh*t ton of average arms, with a major need of Tucker/Ceda/possibly Leroux to really put it together and come up and an ace reliever.

Chris Coghlan has won the MLB National League Rookie of the Year Award. That’s the 3rd in franchise history, with Dontrelle Willis winning it in 2003 and Hanley Ramirez winning it in 2006.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Okay, back to some seriousness.

CC hit .321/.390/.460 in what was arguably the best offensive season ever by a Marlins rookie. His .321 BA, 390 OBP, and 122 OPS+were both the best by a Marlins rookie ever and the best by an NL rookie this year.

While his offense won him the award, his defense almost might have cost him. One thing some people had against him was how his hitting compared as a left fielder and his defense in LF. Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen’s lead in WAR was used as proof by some that he was a better player than CC. I contended that it’s wrong for a few reasons, one being that CC is not a LFer, he’s a second baseman temporarily being positioned in LF.

CC’s other main challenge had nothing to do it him, it had to do with two fantastic NL East pitchers in the Phillies’ J.A. Happ and the Braves’ Tommy Hanson.  In the end it came up extremely close between Happ and CC, with CC getting 105 points (17 1st place, 6 2nd place, 2 3rd place) over Happ’s 94 points (10, 11, 11).

I think there is one important thing to think about here: Which Marlin is getting the ROTY in 2012?

Jeremy Hermida is no more. He has ceased to be. He is an ex-Marlin.

The story on one of the touchiest subjects, Hermida the maybe bust, is no longer any of our business. I predict he gets in some decent bench playing time in Boston and puts up some good numbers, but that’s not the point. The point is that that particularly point to bicker between Fish fans is done.

Usually I would have written something more, probably included a photo of Hermida, but I happen to be on vacation, so this is it. They couldn’t wait til Sunday?

Bullpen coach Steve Foster (Australian for “Get up Pinto”) and third base/outfield coach Bo Porter (known to many fans as “Windmill”) declined the Marlins contracts for next year, meaning the Fish are now in the market for a first base coach, a third base coach, a bullpen coach, and a pitching coach. Only bench coach Carlos Tosca, hitting coach Jim “Hack-Hack” Presley, and bullpen coordinator Pierre Arsenault are staying on Fredi Gonzalez’s staff next season, baring a Perry Hill-like spring training resignation.

I think it’s safe to say that most Marlin fans will not miss Porter, who was constantly criticized for sending almost any runner home in almost any situation.

In other news, the Marlins released pitchers Dave Davidson and Scott Proctor. Davidson was picked up off waivers in April, then only pitched in 1 game for the Fish in May before being DFA’d, picked up on waivers, and then sent back to the Fish when he was found to be injured. Scott Proctor didn’t even make it that far, injuring himself in spring training and missing the entire season.

Additionally, infielder Andy Gonzalez and pitch Dallas Trahern were outrighted to AAA New Orleans.

The coaching positions for 2010 have officially been decided with Fredi and most of his staff being retained. Note that I said most. Mark Wiley, who’s been the pitching coach since 2008, and Andy Fox, who’s replaced Perry Hill as 1st base/infield coach just before the 2007 season began, were not offered contracts today and will not be retained. Both have been offered other positions within the organization but it has yet to be seen if they will accept them. All other coaches were given 1-year renewals on their contracts.

One possible replacement for Wiley is former Braves pitching genius Leo Mazzone, who has been looking to get back into baseball since being released by the Baltimore Orioles after the 2007 season.

Fredi Gonzalez will remain manager of the Marlins according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Rosenthal cites a major-league source while Spencer cites a team source. Rosenthal also said that Fredi’s job was never in any real jeopardy. Fredi’s contract runs through 2011.

While many of us have issues with Fredi’s handling of the bullpen at times the overall sentiment amongst Marlins fans and the media seemed to be that there was no reason to fire Fredi, especially if it was because the team didn’t make the playoffs as some reports were saying.

Clark did state that the coaches’ jobs were still in the air.

Well, the season is over. It’s a sad time where fans of 24 teams cry. I’m not doing a post game thread but I do want to point out a few things.

Hanley Ramirez is the National League’s Batting King, taking the first batting title by a shortstop since Dick Groat won it in 1960. He’s only the 4th NL shortstop to win the batting crown (which can be seen badly pixelated on his head), the others being Groat and Hall of Famers Arky Vauhgan and Honus Wagner. It was the first in franchise history and his batting average was also the highest in franchise history. He also ended the season 6th in OBP, 11th in SLG, and 6th in OPS.

Chris Coghlan ended the season with the 5th in batting average, 12th in OBP, 30th in SLG, and 22nd in OPS. Pretty good for a rookie, especially a natural 2nd baseman. More over, amongst rookies, he ended up 1st in BA, 1st in OBP, 2nd in SLG, and 1st in OPS. And he’s had an incredible second half that put him in the race. In the second half he was 1st in BA, 5th in OBP, 14th in SLG, and 9th in OPS. I think he’s obviously the best choice for Rookie of the Year amongst position players. Obviously his main competition will be Phillies’ pitcher J.A. Happ (and to a lesser extent Braves’ Tommy Hanson). Happ has definitely had a hell of a year, but he slowed down a bit in the end of the season and is no longer in the top 10 in ERA (partially thanks to CC going 2-2 off him today). He’s not in the top 10 in anything substance in the NL but he does have the edge on being on a large market team and helping his team land in the playoffs. I could write and entire post on why CC should be the Rookie of the Year (and might), but we’ll see how the media does it soon enough.

All year long the unsung heroes of this team were the core of the bench, the veterans Ross Gload and “Uncle” Wes Helms. Not only did they provide leadership and mentoring to the younger players on the team, which both Chris Coghlan and Brett Carroll attribute to the success this year, they were undoubtedly the best pinch hitting core in the league this year and earned themselves a spot in the record book today. When Ross Gload got a pinch-hit single in the 8th, that made the combined total between him and Helms to 38. Not only was that the most in the majors, that tied the major league record of pinch-hits by two teammates. The last two teammates to do that were Ed Coleman and Roy Pepper of the 1936 St. Louis Browns.

Last night rumors came out about the Marlins Front Office talking to former Mets manager Bobby Valentine, which many thought were empty rumors due to no words their of dissatisfaction with Fredi Gonzalez, who earlier signed a contract extension to keep him here through 2011. Then, after today’s game, more reports came out that Fredi’s job might be in jeopardy, with Marlins President David Samson saying that his job was going to be “evaluated”, due to owner Jeffrey Loria’s “disappointment” that they didn’t make the playoffs. Look, many people have a problem with Fredi’s managing style but just about no one things he should be fired due to missing the playoffs when Loria refused to open the purse strings to address obvious holes at 3rd base, the rotation, and in the back of the bullpen.

Well, the season’s over. As the offseason moves on make sure to keep checking out Fish Guts for all your offseason news. We also will be putting back retrospective articles on the season during October while wishing we were doing it during November.

If those K’s you see at the top seem like a bunch, it’s because they are. If you’re thinking “that couldn’t have been by one dude”, it was.  Ricky Nolasco wasn’t very good versus the Braves historically, going 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA, including 0-3 with a 10.57 ERA last year when he was almost untouchable. Well, I guess Ricky decided it was time to make up for lost time because he absolutely dominated them last night. Rick had a career high and franchise record 16 strikeouts, at one point striking out 9 straight Braves, just one short of the MLB record and only the 4th pitcher to reach that milestone in baseball history. It’s also the most strikeouts in a game in the majors this year. Noly didn’t give up any runs until he gave up 2 in the 7th and ended up lasting 7.2 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks. Not bad for a guy who was in AAA for parts for May and June. When Nolasco started showing signs of fatigue in the 8th, Fredi called in Dan Meyer, who got Chipper Jones out on 2 pitches to end the inning. Leo Nunez came in to close the game, but due to shoddy defense by Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms, basically inducing 5 outs wasn’t enough. When he walked the bases loaded with 2 outs and a 1 run lead, Fredi pulled him for Brendan Donnelly.

The Don has made two promises since coming to the team. One came when asked what he throws, he answered “I throw outs”. The other was, after a bizarre pitch earlier this year against the Reds when he threw the ball while jumping off the mound, “I’ll show you things you’ve never seen before”. He came through on both of these last night. With the bases juiced and no outs, Donnelly’s first pitch was a wild one that bounced off the ground, off catcher Ronnie Paulino, and to his left. The runner at 3rd, Matt Diaz, ran in about 35 feet, got indecisive, ran back to 3rd and got picked off by Paulino to end the game.

On the hitting side, it wasn’t nearly as exciting. Only Jorge Cantu had a multi-hit game, with Ross Gload continuing his ownership of Javier Vazquez and hitting a 2 run homer off him in the 6th. Chris Coghlan tied the record for most hits by a rookie in a month with 47, of course tying the record he broke last month. Can you say Rookie of the Year? He’s currently 7th in the league in hitting.

Okay, quickly now, the Craig Counsell Hero of the Game Award!

Last night’s winner is…

Ricky Nolasco!

Do you really need a reason?