MLBTR Predictions - Matt the Mets?
Posted by prismo on 8:08am, Monday November 9th 2009
Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors has released his predictions for where his top 50 free agents of the offseason will sign.
Tim believes the Mets will sign three of the top fifty players. The big name for the Mets, according to Tim, will be Matt Holliday. Holliday finished his 2009 season with 24 home runs, 109 RBI, and an OPS of .909. After being traded to the Cardinals mid-season, Holliday caught fire though, hitting for an OPS of 1.023. His post-season was marred by an error on a line-drive, that led to a Cardinals loss in game 2 of the Division Series. There was originally some speculation that this could hurt his 2010 contract (in the opposite vein of Carlos Beltran), but it seems as if that speculation is all but dead, and Holliday will get a major payday. What’s actually bothering me the most about speculation surrounding Holliday is the notion that he’s a home run hitter. In ‘06 and ‘07 Holliday hit 34 and 36 homers, but in ‘08 and ‘09 he only hit 25 and 24. Now don’t misunderstand, I do believe he has a great bat, but he’s not an incredible power threat; one that the Mets could certainly use.
Our new LF?
The second prediction free agency signing for the Mets is Randy Wolf. Wolf had an excellent 2009, pitching to an ERA of 3.23 with a WHIP of 1.1. However, this season was an aberration for the pitcher, who has a lifetime ERA of 4.13 over 11 seasons. Wolf is also 33 years old, and while he could have some life left in him, that’s around the age where most players begin to decline. I’m skeptical that Wolf will live up to his ‘09 season in 2010, but he could be a solid #3 or #4 pitcher. I’m just not sure he’s the #2 that the Mets really need.
The final prediction is that the Mets will sign Brad Penny. This one’s kind of out of left field, but I don’t think he would be a bad option as the Mets’ second free agent starter signing of the offseason. Through his career, Penny actually has very similar stats to Randy Wolf (speaking in terms of ERA/WHIP). Penny has been a fairly poor pitcher for the last 2 seasons, but he might be worth taking a flyer on to build some depth in the rotation.
Head over to MLBTR to read where the other 47 free agents will end up, according to Tim (though he says he’ll be satisfied if 1/4 of them pan out), including a couple of very interesting signings by the Feliz-less Phillies.
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I can totally see the wolf signing and your right, if we do get matt we need to temper our expectations. He will most likley bat 4th but he is not a prince fielder or adam dunn. I guess the mets will focus on his speed and that he will nto clog the bases once he gets on.
Wolf should be fine, as long as it is a short deal (appropriate for his age and history). 2 years max? 2 + an option?
Not sure they will snag him on the more ideal 1+1 though.
Penny could be a solid pickup on the cheap. He seemed OK once he got out of Boston.
again, much of it comes down to the contract details.
johan/wolf/pelf/maine/perez/neise/penny might not be the “sexiest” rotation but it certainly has enough talent to hopefully put together a solid year and keep the team in most games.
Let the improved offense and Defense make up the difference!
5 year, big $$ contracts to any SP already into their 30s is scary. At least with that group, they aren’t really married to anyone but Johan, incase some better options show up next year in FA and they want to splurge.
I would also love, love, love it if they could somehow trade high on Luis and bring in lopez (even palanco) for 2B, along with Olivo or Barajas for C.
Palanco/reyes/wright/beltran/holliday/frenchy/murphy/Barajs actually has some juice to it, and can A) score some serious runs (even hitting a HR occasionally), and B) picking up on Case’s post, should be a very solid defenseive team, further helping the pitching staff.
Lopez or Palanco would be fine to bring in even if Castillo were still here. Especially Lopez as he can play so many positions and gives insurance for Castillo and even Reyes. The guy has played 602 games at SS and even almost 100 at 1B. Signing Lopez is in my opinion one of the keys to building a better team.
Also, Olivo is another guy that I would quickly go out and get. As long as he is not asking for multiple years or 5 million a year adding a guy with that OPS low in the order from the catcher spot would be huge.
Next outcast role player. Instead of Penny, sign Myers. Yes he is an ahole but that has never stopped us before. Wolf and Myers gives you a lot of potential and still leaves room for Halladay or Lackey if you choose. With Wolf and Myers you also have 2 guys that MAYBE will have grudges with Philly?
No thanks on Meyers!
Sure, adding Lopez to replace the Cora role would be huge (but expensie). But if they can get him or lopez, I don’t want to see Luis starting over them!
I will stand by my prediction that the Met most likely to tank in 2010 is Castillo. And since all he has left is his .380ish OBP, if the wheels go slitghtly taking the teeny bit of range (and .30 points off the OBP) with them, it wil be god awful ugly.
ALso nice to see someone else support getting Myers. When I mentioned it in the past, I tended to the the “feminist” response attacking me!
one big plus to Myers: he is expereinced, and quite happy, in the back end of the pen. He potentially could tag team with K Rod (in the 8th inning role I guess) to give them what JJ and Frankie were supposed to last year.
What I like about Myers is his ability to do either and if healthy do them well. Let him and Maine compete for the #5 slot and then loser to the pen.
Back to Castillo a little. His OBP was .387 last year with bad wheels, I don’t see why a guy who makes contact like he does and never swings at a bad pitch will suddenly not get on base. His range is for sure troublesome. However, I am not sure his defense is as bad as the stats like UZR like to show. He, with the exception of a few really boneheaded plays that all the Mets made this year, was able to make the routine play.
I still think the Mets would have to take on another bad contract or eat a lot of cash to sign him. Lopez if he performed well could push Castillo out the same as friggin tounge man pused the great Odawg to the bench.
I like Myers better than Penny too at this point (even though he is a subhuman). I just think he has greater upside and more versatility.
Plus, Penny has always pitched horribly v. the Mets and you have to wonder if that’s because of stage fright.
Could be with Penny. I just think that he may actually get more than Myers because of how he finished but in my opinion is just as risky or even more so. Besides we know that Myers can and is willing to pitch out of the pen.
What do you think about Glaus?
He’s obviously a good hitter when he plays.
But do we really need mroe guys who can stay on the field.
That said, if Omar was able to get him on the cheap and he somehow managed to stay healthy enough to play 130 games at 1B with a .350 OBP and something near a .500 SLG (his norms) than it would look like a stroke of genius.
Say he can only play 80 games paired with Murphy, would it still be a good gamble?
I know this is a bit off topic, but how about trading for AGonz, and sign Dye for LF? Mets should still have enough money to sign Wolf.
Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
AGonz
Wright
Dye
Frenchy
Catcher
That should give the Mets enough fire power
It’s easier said than done, but I think it’s doable and won’t increase the salary too much. Heck, Mets might have enough money sign Lackey over Wolf.
Problem with Dye is that he was one of the WORST OF in MLB last year. I think he is destined for DH.
AGonz is interesting because of his price. It really depends on if the RSox get involved. To me that is the team that will drive the price up in prospects, but with Martinez will they be as interested? Also, as far as other NL teams I could see the Braves really making a push for him offering even a guy like Yunel Escobar. That would have to be attractive to the Padres. Throw in a guy like JoJo, Johnson and another prospect and it would be hard to turn down.
I am torn on which guy they should persue. Halladay who will be cheaper in prospects but requires a lot more cash or Agonz who is the opposite?
I think now that the Sox have Victor Martinez they will be less inclined to give up the farm for Gonzalez.
Martinez can’t catch every day and will have to play some 1B. With Ortiz already entrenched as the DH and Youkilis and Lowell to play the corners, they have bigger needs than filling 1B.
I think they could trade Lowell but then again for what? Hopefully you are right. Who else would be willing to give top talent for Agonz?
That’s a good point. I really can’t see any other team outside of Braves looking to give up their prospects. But then AGonz price tag is so low that I wouldn’t be surprised to see other teams compete for him.
I think the Mets have enough prospects to get him, but like trs has said it’s either Halladay or AGonz.
I really wonder what $ some of these guys would get (Olivio, lopez, myers, wolf say).
you could put together a pretty nice team adding those guys, and Holliday. And no, you did not get your great #2 starter, but heck, unless you really think Lackey is that guy, and you give up Holliday (or Wilpon really extends the budget) you aren’t getting him too!
olivio
murphy
lopez
reyes
wright
holliday
beltran
francouer
solid hitting up and down, and pretty good pop (especially from the bottom of the order).
johna/wolf(garland?)/maine/pelf/ollie/neise/neive/? dark horse can piece together a rotation.
k rod/myers/pedro F./parnell/stokes/neive/? is a good pen.
bench: pagan/carter/cora (or equiv.)/snatos/tatis (or equiv. super sub)
For a second I thought that was your batting order and I thought you were on drugs. haha
Yeah, I have thought about this approach for a while. Do this and then keep a watch on Holliday, Lackey, Agonz and Halladay and see if either eventually fit based on prospects and cash.
For the record, regarding Olivo…Royals fans REALLY don’t like him. A KC fan on MLBTR called him “Collapso”. His defense is subpar - 8 errors last season (lower fielding % than Brian and Omir) as well as a worse steal rate than both those guys.
Yup, but it’s not like Barajas is that much better anymore. I am still convinced it will be Molina anyway.
Meh. I’d rather spend money elsewhere and just keep the Thole/Santos platoon idea.
Thole is not ready defensively much less offensively. But I don’t disagree that Molina is not a good idea. I just think it’s already a done deal. In my opinion I would still rather have Olivo just because we need offense.
The way the Mets abused Molina this season I can’t believe Omar would be that stupid…
…okay, I could believe it.
Getting back to Agonz, lets look at who might be in on him.
Mets, Braves, Marlins? (not very Marlin like but he is very cheap), Dodgers?, Giants. That’s all I got for the NL and would the Pads trade him to a team in the division?
AL
Rsox, Rays? (Dump Pena and trade for AGonz?), O’s?, Wsox?, that’s really about all I got.
I suppose Detroit could force Cabrera to DH or even put him back at 3B.
He’s cheap enough for him to make sense for Seattle too.
How about the Angels? Kendry can replace Guerrero at DH. I think the Angels would definitely get involved if Gonz became available.
He fits Washington’s budget.
Milwaukee make a blockbuster three way that sends Fielder and gets them AGonz?
Hmm,
Where is Inge playing in Detroit and it seems as though DH is already taken with all their washed up players.
Seattle is interesting but they seem content in bring Branyan back.
He does fit Washington’s budget but I think they have 1B covered with all their OF/1B types.
Brewers you would THINK would want pitching in return for Fielder.
Brandon Inge: .230 .314 .406
Who cares where he plays?
True but hey .720 OPS is only a little lower than Murphy, LOL. But that being said I still don’t see them looking for DH or 1B? Really do you?
Probably not. But if a guy like AGonz comes along you may re-adjust some things.
Well, besides Fatcessa, of course.
Haha, you beat me to it.
Listen, I like in a lot. If you could get Inge, I like him a lot. I mean if you could get Inge, I’ll tell ya, I would be interested in Inge.
Say something funny, Prismo!!
Excluding the NL west teams, it’s just Mets, Bravos and Marlins. Since he’s pretty cheap, Pirates may get on it too, they certainly have enough prospects.
Ah Pirates good point. Put butts in the seats without costing much.
Re: Holliday, he’s been highly productive over the last three seasons but decreasingly so:
2007: .340 .405 .607
2008: .321 .409 .538
2009: .313 .394 .515
Most players would love that production. But for those of you who are weary of signing John Lackey for 5 years, what if all we get out of Holliday is Oakland’s version: .286 .378 .454?
Sure, a nice player. Not not a $20m franchise player.
In NY he won’t have Albert Pujols hitting in front of him and on base all the time or Coors Field’s friendly thin air. He also won’t have the highly supportive fans of Denver and St. Loo cheering him on. Instead, he’ll have us calling him an a**hole if he hits .286.
Holliday will be the greatest FA disaster since George Foster if we sign him.
For all of the points you made and more.
Kingman, I absolutely agree with you.
He’s a very good hitter, but not a greater hitter. And a slightly below average defender. Yet he’s going to get top-hitter money. It’s bound to be a let-down for whomever signs him (except for the Yankees who have about 10 players in that category).
Yep, that’s how I see it.
Holliday and Lackey are being tremendously helped by there being no CC or Tex or Manny available this year. They are the best of their class, but not nearly as good as last year’s top FAs.
While Holliday’s splits improved over the years, his career totals are still very much an inflated product of Coors. He was so-so in Oakland, and had Pujols in StL.
Might post this later if it makes sense, but it is possible the Phillies could go radical.
THere were comments from Amaro in the paper yesterday that they are pretty much capped out in payroll (pushing 140mill now, and not going up next eyar).
With some pretty significant raises coming (arb, and on mutli year deals), and only really losing Myeres 12mill, they aren’t going to be able to do much, if they keep the team intact.
Already rumors they will dump Feliz (5mill +), for a better bat, but don’t see that being cheaper.
The one move they can make, which was floated a couple of places (nt from substance, but as a concept), is to unload Howard while he is still a big stud name (K record for the WS and all!).
The logic is, he makes 19-20 mill each of the next 2 years, then hits FA at 33. PLus, they have plenty of other power through the line up.
So, the choice for them is, keep the same group for the next couple years, see if they can hit the WS again, and watch it (possible) impload after 2011 (although the pitching may take it down sooner).
Or, make some big moves now to retool, and still look to win but avoid the crash.
No idea to who or for what, but think if they could trade Howard for help elsewhere (pitching?), and then moved prospects for A Gon. Sign a guy like Beltre for 3B. Put the money into a pitcher.
Just speculating, but sometiems teams need to do something risky if they really want to sustain excellence, as opposed to milk a run and crash, burn and rebuild.
Well they have to spend *some* money. At the very least they need a third baseman, a starter, and a bullpen guy.
they build the BP on the cheap, so certainly can add a minimum wage guy. Feliz is 5mill if they take his option. Very unlikely they spend much on a #5 SP (lee/hamels/happ and blanton are locked in 1-4 pretty much)
I think they’ve already declined Feliz’s option.
I read that Justin Duscherer is a free agent? If this is so, then why not take a chance on him? I don’t know much about him, other than that he has a rather unfortunate last name, but from what I’ve seen and read, he’s put up some very good numbers and had a tremendous 2008 season. I’d be much more inclined to sign him over Penny, or whoever else the mets would sign to fight it out for a back of the end spot. Him and Ben Sheets should be looked at as viable options. I’d much rather give an ace caliber pitcher coming off an inury a 1 year deal than to commit a good amount of year and money to a Wolf or a Marquis. This is assuming the Mets sign a solid 2 pitcher or trade for one ofcourse.
would have to be a ST invite or a very low base + incentives deal (like whats his face from last year, colon?)
He is 33, not a hard thrower, and missed all last season with ankle and elbow injuries, then clinical depression (which at least is treatable).a definite risk/reward guy, but just don’t bank on him or guarantee much money.
I’m a huge fan of Duch. His peripheral numbers are outstanding. But as Stick notes he is battling clinical depression. I have no idea at what stage of the battle he is. Clearly it can be overcome (Greinke) but I just don’t know how far Duch has to go.
I second Stick’s notion of little money/tons of incentives, and don’t really count on him for anything. He’d be like a mid-season trade or minor league call up.
Yeah, I know its a little weird, but I feel like if we can bring in Duch and Sheets for 1 year deals based on incentives and have them duke it out for the 5 spot..or not even get a spot if they both stink, then we should do it. Two pitchers that have put up ace like numbers that you can bring in for nothing..why not? Its not like we’re broke. So fine we can’t spend like the yankees, but I feel this is how we can take advantage of playing in NY. We can afford to spend a little dough on 2 guys that might get shelled in ST and never pitch at the ML level, but also have a chance of being real big factors in the season.
Depending on how it fits in financially I am in favor of such a strategy, and I say that knowing full well that same strategy failed miserably for the Red Sox in 2009.
It’s a gamble, but if it’s not a huge debilitating financial gamble then I’m for it.
They also lost Dice K and had to fill his spot as well. If we can bring in Lackey or Halladay or a good 2 pitcher I’m very content wih Johan #2 Pelf Maine ollie/sheets/duscherer..c’mon..1 of the 3 has to work!
Holliday, Wolf and Penny. Hmm, very interesting. Doesn’t solve the #2 issue, but maybe Pelf steps up.
I still hate the whole “slotting” system. I prefer to think of it as quality and crap! with a few striations in between…
In slot terms, do you really think a team can’t be successful with a #1/ace, and 4 solid ML pitchers (IOW #3s)?
I realize you are replying to Case here, but I just want to jump in and say I have some rather strong feelings related to that topic and they will be revealed in a post that is complete and scheduled for tomorrow morning at 8:00am.
sure, that’s fine for the regular season, but in a short series like the playoffs, you need two top pitchers.