The Real Dirty Mets Blog


Reality Check: Trading Luis Castillo Will Be Hard

Posted by GravediggerHebner on 1:02pm, Thursday December 17th 2009

"Dios Mio, I'm going to have to lay down a perfect bunt to make up for this."

"Dios Mio, I'm going to have to lay down a perfect bunt to make up for this."

Dave Cameron of fangraphs.com has published an interesting article called The Second Base Glut. In it he takes a close look at the general second base situation throughout the major leagues.  If he is to be believed, we all need to resign ourselves to Luis Castillo as the Mets starting second baseman for 2010.  An excerpt:

  • Last year, bad defensive outfielders got a rude awakening in free agency, as Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu learned first hand that teams were beginning to value defense at positions besides catcher and shortstop. There were too many lumbering sluggers available, and the excess supply drove prices down for all of them.  This year, the hurt is landing on second baseman.
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138 Responses to “Reality Check: Trading Luis Castillo Will Be Hard”

  1. dirtysanchez says:

    yea…i kinda just wrapped my head around castillo starting in 2010.

  2. I’ve been listening to Boston sports talk today and some unrelated to Luis Castillo tidbits:

    - John Lackey’s wife is from New England and her whole family are life-long Red Sox fans, Theo Epstein thanked her for her participation in bringing him to Boston. I think we can probably absolve Omar on this one.

    - The host of the show I’m listening to took a call about the Sox going hard after Joe Mauer and said in response “I believe unless Mauer stays in Minnesota he will be overwhelmed by the Yankees and become baseball’s first $300 million man with a 10 year, $30 million annual contract.”

    - In an interview with the Sox manager, Francona said “I have some ideas about what I want to do with Cameron and Ellsbury but I’m not gonna tell you guys, I want to talk to them first.” Sort of a better way to handle that type of thing than say telling the press Mike Piazza is going to start at 1B before telling Mike, or more recently telling Ryan Church that he won’t be an everyday player through the press.

  3. fongy2 says:

    I don’t know…I was told time and
    again by many over at mattsblog,including some now here…
    THAT this Castillo contract wasn’t
    all that bad! I complained about this since moment one and could find
    almost no one who agreed with me.

    Prime example of Omar focusing on a
    guy HE loved and then bidding against
    himself for the guy’s services.
    And PLEASE, no posts about how Houston was interested. I’ve covered
    this in detail TOO MANY times.
    Houston never offered more than two years to him and Omar wasted no time
    in throwing fours at him BECAUSE this
    was the guy he wanted period,as in period. For God’s sake, he signed him a week BEFORE Thanksgiving!…
    Did he really explore any other options?? I think not!
    This guy was a 150lb. slap hitter/speed player just a few yrs
    ago,who is now 190lb. slap hitter with little speed and who’s gone from being a plus to a minus fielder.

    When he first became a FA in 2003, our
    fmr GM was very interested until his
    medical reports were examined.At that
    time, in addition to his balky knees
    and ankles it was learned he suffers
    from a very serious hip condition which in all likelyhood will cause him to need a hip replacement after his career is over. This was reported in all four NYC daily papers
    at that time. I remember thinking then”dodged a bullet with that guy”.

    Omar gets him for nothing, he’s ok but not great,files for FA and boom,
    Omar rewards him with the fat new four yr deal. Again, I’ve been screaming for yrs that this will kill
    any chance to move him and that we’re
    stuck with a shell of the former player he was…And we are.

    All we can do is hope and pray he stays healthy, isn’t any worse in the
    field and con’ts to do what he can, take alot of pitches&slap the ball
    around.
    He’s not really much of a SB guy anymore,has absolutely no power and
    can’t drive in runs.
    So, thats what we have for 6million at 2B. Thanks, again Omar.
    At least Luis’ children will never go hungry!

    • I’m not going to attempt to dispute anything you’re saying here, I will only note that the point of the fangraphs article which prompted my post was not that Luis Castillo’s contract and/or legs were bad, it was that not a lot of teams need a second baseman and that whether you are a free agent second baseman looking for a job, or a team trying to trade a second baseman, you’re simply out of luck.

    • trs86 says:

      Well then it’s settled. I guess there is no reason to say that the rumor was 3/20 from the Astro’s. You are right Omar just said, “Oh you got 2 we will give you 4″ Anyway.

      • fongy2 says:

        My friend, we’ve been over this time and again,I followed this daily via the Houston papers online. There
        was never any contract offer by the Astros. Just statements released by the club that they’d be interested
        in a one yr deal.A couple days later,they
        indicated they might
        go two yrs but no more. Now according to the Mets own website,Castillo agreed to a 4yr deal
        on 11/18/07,signing the deal,sans physical
        on 11/19/07. Considering he became a FA on 10/29/07 and that only The Mets could talk to him until 11/13/07,you mean to tell me Omar
        explored other options and concluded
        Castillo was best in 4or5 days? Or was that choice really already made?
        Further, The Astros had time to go over this guys physical history and figure out
        what they wanted to do
        or was it more likely
        Omar set the price by blowing out everyone else for the guy he wanted? C’mon!
        Listen TRS,I’m
        more than happy to debate opinion BUT when you make snarky
        comments about facts
        that I know and you’re not sure of,
        It’s a friggin’ insult. I know what happened with this guy b/c, I followed it daily and was arguing about it THEN.

        Exactly what has gone on with this guy is exactly what I thought
        would and instead of just saying,fong we
        disagree about alot but you were right on with this, you instead
        insult me by implying
        I either don’t know what I’m talking about
        or worse, I just made it up.

        • trs86 says:

          How many contract offers are actually published Fongy? We had one out for Lackey, do you know how much it was for? We had one out for Lowe do you know how much it was for?

        • trs86 says:

          Also, why do you continue to ignore published reports that Ekencrappy was his first choice?

          Fongy my friend, I was on Metsblog when it happened and most likely argued with you about it then…

          If you say Houston offered 2 years, find that for me. Did they have time to offer him anything at all? How do you know they did not let him know they would go 3. Again, besides YOUR snarky remarks on Omar do you really think a GM is going to best the best offer by 2 years and more money? I don’t see it. I will continue to believe what was rumored at the time because in my opinion that makes much more sense. Logic tells you that Omar went the extra year to get the guy he wanted.

        • trs86 says:

          And I believe you ask for this discussion in a round about way by saying
          “And PLEASE, no posts about how Houston was interested. I’ve covered
          this in detail TOO MANY times.”

          Thus implying that your rumors were more actuate than our rumors. LOL Well my grandpa was bigger than your grandpa.

          Relax fongy, we have common ground here. It was a bad signing. You think it was bad by 2 years and I think it was bad by 1.

          • fongy2 says:

            Not MY rumors.
            What was reported in the Houston and NYC newspapers AT THE TIME.
            But good luck with taking
            Omar’s logic over what was reported AT THE TIME.
            Unreal!
            Omar’s logic?
            Who exactly was offering Ollie
            3yrs AFTER the Braves already signed
            Lowe?
            Moises Alou?@40?,
            Murphy&Church in the corners instead of Abreu..
            for a yr? Duque? for 2yrs?
            Franco for 2?,
            Mota for 2?
            AFTER the playoff blowup &’roid suspension?
            And so on and so forth..
            Okay..
            Omar’s logic?
            Like I said, unreal.

  4. wannybackstra says:

    Castillo might still get by on his reputation as a good defender. Some GMs are still in the stone age and their scouts may have caught Luis on one of his good days (no, not the dropped pop up).

    But I agree that trading Luis will very difficult given his performance, health, physical appearance (the limping and the miserable look on his face), contract and the relative lack of demand for a second baseman, let alone one with his skills.

  5. metsfan66 says:

    Castillo might be attractive to teams with young infields as a mentor.

  6. Kingman 26 says:

    Eh.

    He just isn’t that bad.

    Sorry.

    We have much larger fish to fry, and let’s just hope that Luis and Molina don’t eat them all.

    • Well, I disagree on defense and personally believe in the field he IS that bad, but…

      I really only wrote the post to see if I could get a “Stickguy” sighting (so far no luck) and also because in the back of my mind I recall TRS urging us to “write lots of posts” sometime recently. I’m really scraping the bottom of the barrel in an effort to do that, can I stop doing that now? :-)

    • trs86 says:

      We do have larger fish, but the offense can be upgraded this year at 2B because of the market so if he can be moved then he needs to be.

    • darknova306 says:

      Defense is a very serious issue, especially if we take on any more pitchers that rely on the infield. For one example, if Pelfrey is going to make serious strides, he needs to be reasonably confident in the gloves behind him. While I don’t think we should focus entirely on dumping Luis, I do think Omar can pursue it while fixing other holes (he’s not single-focused like a lot people would love to believe).

  7. wannybackstra says:

    Why didn’t the Knicks draft Brandon Jennings? More importantly, why did they draft Jordan Hill to (not) play behind the team’s arguably three best players (Lee, Gallinari and Jordan Hill)?

    Yeah, I know I’m behind but I don’t pay much attention to the NBA.

  8. TRS and friends, this info from MLBTR relates to the Zach Duke conversation of yesterday:

    “ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that arbitration-eligible starter Ricky Nolasco agreed to a one-year, $3.8MM deal for 2010. That means Nolasco gets a $1.4MM raise (58%) for his second arbitration year. By comparison, Joe Blanton received a 48% raise in his second arb year (going from $3.7MM to $5.475MM). Nolasco’s deal could be a comparable used by Zach Duke’s agent Mark Pieper, as Duke is also entering his second arb year.”

  9. DNDJohan aka kistics says:

    Given that there’s still Hudson, Johnson, and Lopez out there, I don’t see the reason for any team to take Castillo’s 2/12.

    • Unfortunately none of those guys have demonstrated consistently positive defense, so despite the likelihood that 2 or 3 of them would be an improvement over Luis, I’m not sure how much of an improvement they’d be in the field.

      The good news may be though that since so few teams are actively pursuing 2B that the Mets might be able to afford to sign one of these guys late and cheap with Luis still in the fold. But how that impacts the overall 25 man roster is something I haven’t thought through completely.

    • Kingman 26 says:

      How about the Knicks??

  10. CaseStreet says:

    So if Castillo is not tradeable, because of the many options, do we bring in Lopez or Hudson for the bench?

    The bench already consists of Blanco, Pagan and Cora. Bringing in one of these guys, is redundant since you already have Cora, but also it’d mean we’re going with only 1 OF bench player or no corner infielder on the bench.

    Moving Castillo would really seem to be a miracle. Someone wrote early in the off-season that moving Castillo would be Omar’s hardest job. Seems that person may be right.

    Also, until Omar sees Delgado play, they’re not going to bring in a 1B bench guy, cause that might be Murphy’s job depending on how Delgado does. So we may miss out on Garko, unless Murphy would be the new Tatis.

    BTW, where’s Tatis?

    • trs86 says:

      TatIS looking for a job.

      Garko could be the RH platoon guy they have been looking for to pair with Murphy.

      Lopez and Johnson I believe play OF while again Hudson may be able to play 3B./

      • Lopez has played LF as recently as 2008, it was a terribly small sample (13 starts) and he was horrible (minus 41.1 UZR/150).

        I think if we’re asking one of these guys to play any significant time in the OF, we’d be better off with Johnson, who hasn’t played OF since 2005 but in 73 LF starts that year was plus 17.9 UZR/150.

        • trs86 says:

          True, I was thinking that Lopez can stand at more positions than Johnson. They are both terrible defenders at about every position they have played and often their sample sizes are very small at some of these positions. I am willing to let defense slide a little in terms of a utility guy. Cora is supposed to be the good defense middle IF and Pagan is supposed to be the good defense backup OF. Myself I would welcome back Tatis who could stand at a lot of positions as well and had decent UZR numbers while doing it.

          • I hear you and this is more emotional than fact based but I’m looking for as much roster turnover from 2009 as is within reason.

            So as versatile and therefore useful as Tatis can be, if I can enter 2010 with a bench of hypothetically Blanco, Cora, Pagan, Garko, Johnson I’m pleased with the turnover.

            • trs86 says:

              I addressed this one below but was Tatis a problem? Roster turnover for the sake of turning it over is not needed in my opinion. To me there is more of a reason not to bring back a cheap Delgado than there is a cheap Tatis. At least some could argue Delgado’s negative effect on the clubhouse and Mets future. What did Tatis do wrong? Besides hit .853 OPS and .777 OPS from the backup spot. Why do we expect that Garko or Johnson could even come close to that? Garko’s last 2 years have been worse than that and Johnson Carrer average was the same as Tatis’s numbers last year.

              • Can’t argue, as I said it’s an emotional point of view I have. The more of 2009 I can shed the better I’ll feel.

                I don’t take that so far as to say “lose Wright!” but I mean spare parts type turnover pleases my cold withered heart.

                I can’t argue that is anything more than ‘change for changes sake’ and I know that’s not always a good and can sometimes be a bad thing.

                For me it’s simply, he’s already gone so I don’t have to ‘get rid of him’ I merely have to replace him. Half the task is already done.

              • wannybackstra says:

                tatis was garbage for 2/3 of the year. his OPS benefited from a strong August and September and a flukishly powerful July (slg 563 but OBP 288).

                tatis BA by month:

                apr/march — 348 (only 23 ABs)
                may — 227
                june — 233
                july — 229
                aug — 310
                sep/oct — 373

                He was the king of DPs. Even here we were joking what a flop he was.

                • trs86 says:

                  We picked on Tatis because we had no one left to pick on.

                  Take a look around at ANY bench player that can play 3 positions even and find one with better stats the last 2 years. Especially one that is available.

                • I do recall us saying things like ‘Tatis gets more DP action than a porn star.’

                • trs86 says:

                  OPS+ of 107, 123, 105 his last 3 years in the majors.

                • wannybackstra says:

                  My point, TRS, is that the “stats” for last season aren’t as good as they appeared in the end.

                  He really hurt the team for a long while.

                • trs86 says:

                  His DP’s doubled last year. Who knows if that was a fluke or not.
                  His rate last year was 1/29 AB’s. That was the same ratio as Wright and Carlos Lee. A better ratio than Phillips, Escobar, Agonz, Pujols, Zimmerman, Tejada.

                  Obviously all of those guys are better hitters. Just trying to put the DP’s in perspective.

                • trs86 says:

                  Wanny I am guessing he really hurt the team even more by the fact that he had to play too much. I would imagine that is the case for any utility bench player.

                • wannybackstra says:

                  it’s not just the DPs. See above.

                  I like Fernando. Plays hard. Seems like a good guy. Competent.

                  But replaceable.

                • trs86 says:

                  Even with his completely garbage 1st half:
                  .249 .320 .393 .713

                  Those are still acceptable numbers for a bench player that can play (stand) at multiple positions.

                • wannybackstra says:

                  probably true. but sh*t is going to happen and these guys are going to play.

                  however, if you value him for playing multiple positions, doesn’t that contemplate him playing often?

                • Without looking up stats which may disprove this, my recollection is that Tatis was far worse when he WASN’T playing regularly, which is ironically what we would be hoping for in 2010.

                • trs86 says:

                  Obviously he is replaceable. He is not some superstar. I just see no reason to do it based on the options out there. I am looking at how Atkins got a big pay day with worse numbers the last 2 years.

                • trs86 says:

                  Oddly enough, not sure if this implies one thing or another he played in 1 more game in the first half and only a hand full more ab’s in the first half.

                • trs86 says:

                  Also another interesting stat, as a sub last year:
                  .269 .316 .500 .816

                • trs86 says:

                  I would expect him to get about 250 AB’s Wanny.

                • That “first half/second half” thing is broken down by pre and post All Star break, so more games in the first half.

                • wannybackstra says:

                  i don’t see why the “sub” numbers are interesting. but feel free to entertain yourself!

                • trs86 says:

                  True Grave but he started 5 in April, 14 in May, 14 in June, 10 in July, 22 in August, 14 in July.
                  Thus besides August he was pretty consistent. In August he put up his 4th highest OPS total of the year.

                  Fact is for last year he had a god awful May and June. In fact 8 of his 13 DP’s came in June alone.

                • trs86 says:

                  Sub numbers for a bench guy should be interesting right? That is also one of his jobs, to pinch hit and occasionally take someones place for the rest of the game. He did manage 57 PA in that role.

                • wannybackstra says:

                  those 57 plate appearances are, well 57 plate appearances. that’s a sample size large enough to tell you very little about nothing (he wasn’t a particularly good pinch hitter if you are trying to impute his pinch hitting numbers from his sub numbers you don’t have to: .257 .325 .457 were his numbers specifically in pinch hit at bats — therefore his numbers as strictly a sub were in 15 at bats).

                  anyway, sub at bats, if not pinch hit at bats, could be garbage time nothing. in fernando’s case the majority of his sub at bats were poor pinch hitting appearances, meaning he did well in 17 at bats playing RF in 10-2 games or in his second at bat after a double switch.

                • trs86 says:

                  Even in his pinch hitting stats he managed a .782 OPS. That is still hard to find for a guy that can stand at multiple positions.

                • wannybackstra says:

                  why does it matter how many positions a pinch hitter can stand at? i’d rather have a pinch hitter who can pinch hit (sweeney, alou, staub and harris were hardly versatile among great pinch hitters).

                  tatis’s primary role as a pinch hitter is to get on base. he got on base at a .325 clip last season as a pinch hitter and for his career is 215 .281 .316.

                  and again, why do you care how many positions he can “stand” at if you want his at bats limited? what benefit do you derive from a guy who can play all over the field if you don’t want him to play frequently?

      • The flipside is, at least Lopez, however inconsistent, has recently given positive defense at 2B. Johnson is minus 7.4 UZR/150 for his career (although ‘merely’ minus 0.2 last year), whereas Lopez was plus 7.6 last year and is plus 2.6 at 2B for his career.

      • CaseStreet says:

        So, a combination of Garko+Lopez/Hudson/Johnson should have us covered for all bench positions?

        Okay.

        Still, with Garko, I hope he waits around until Omar makes a decision on Delgado.

        • trs86 says:

          Yeah, again I think what we are looking for is there with Tatis already. I know how people want to change chemistry but do we really need to change that chemistry? A guy that needed the money from baseball for the right reasons and reinvented himself because of it. He played through 2 rough seasons without a word and constantly found himself at different positions daily. I say he is very valuable to the Mets.

    • Kingman 26 says:

      Hudson proved down the stretch and in the postseason that he can sit on the bench….

  11. trs86 says:

    How about this one for published reports. Newspapers coming out saying the Mets had no one to watch Chapman pitch. Many fans erupt and call them cheap. Now it turns out they did have someone there. The Newspaper reporters are no more fact than the rumor mills.

    • Courtesy of google translate:

      “Two Dutch talents yesterday signed a professional contract for New York Mets. These are the players Kevin Kinheim Weijgertse and Björn Hato. The pair continued yesterday in Hoofddorp, in the presence of European scout Lionel Chattelle, a signed a seven-year contract. The expectation is that both players early April travel to the training camp in Boca Chica (Dominican Republic).”

    • This paragraph translated rather hilariously:

      “Similarly Hato Björn (18) came last season for big league Corendon Kinheim. The infielder made his debut on Sunday, April 26 in the main body when in the eighth inning of the game against Mr.. Cocker HCAW was used as a pinch runner. It was the only game of Hato in the league so far. The rest of the season he played for the Rookie League team in the big league Haarlem.
      Hato played 26 games for this team, which he produced no less than 44 hits (.403). He scored 32 points and led six p.m. teammates on the plate. Moreover knew Hato four p.m. to steal bases.”

  12. Hold onto those prospects for the mid-season trade and hold onto those dollars for the big contract:

    [Back in November, speaking to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, Josh Johnson's agent Matt Sosnick ruled out the chance of the Marlins signing his client long-term this winter:

    "Based on our conversations, there's no chance of doing a long-term deal with the Marlins. We made it clear that it was going to be this year or it wasn't going to happen. It was now or never. And the Marlins agreed."]

  13. trs86 says:

    : So, for you, does your approach change in certain situations? Say, you come to bat with nobody on compared to when guys are on, what do you physically or mentally different that makes it different?

    Jeff Francoeur: Absolutely, if nobody is on base, do I want to get something going? Yeah, you wanna be selective and see what you can do. But, if there’s a guy on third with one out, I’m just trying to hit the ball to second base or to the shortstop if he’s back and get the run in. And, if that causes my OBP to be 10 points lower than, you know, I’m not that concerned about it.

    Matthew Cerrone: As a player, what do you make of things like Sabermetrics and these comprehensive statistics, what do they mean to you as a player?

    Jeff Francoeur: Nothing… They were talking about certain guys, I’m not gonna name names, but he was the ‘third-best left fielder of the year,’ and I was like, ‘Where is that?’ It doesn’t go together to me… Let’s talk about your range, and where your playing. I remember when I was playing with Andruw Jones and he didn’t get to balls over his head, and I’d say, ‘It’s because he was playing second base… and he never saw a ball drop in front of him.’ So, I think it’s different for different people. Some of that can be good statistical information, but as a player I don’t pay attention to any of that.

  14. CaseStreet says:

    I’m off to take my last final, Professional Responsibility. I’m professional and responsible, so I should be okay.

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